Thoughts on UK lockdown - what will happen on 7th may?

[Bumpandus]

Obviously no one can predict anything

But what are your opinions of what will happen and why?

For example:

Lockdown still for a few more weeks?
Or Ease restrictions but how?

Just interested in people’s thoughts.

Surely then you can’t send children back to school until no more staff are shielding. Ie when there’s a vaccine.

Could have a low R value and testing in place like NZ, Korea et al

Yep. Who is going to tell school staff and children who have been told to shield that it's time to be brave?

if businesses are allowed to reopen but not schools, parents that work in school time cannot return. As a single parent, if my business reopens, how can my employer accept I won’t be there till September? There will still be a work load to complete. So surely huge job losses for those in that situation?? Very very worrying

*should say the business I work for, not ‘my business’

I think from the 11th we’ll very slowly and cautiously see more things opening up, incrementally though and with a sharp eye on the figures. Schools possibly back in some form from the 1st June. But who knows 🤷🏻‍♀️

Extend till 1st June then things really need to start getting back to normal.

@NikeDeLaSwoosh no. They're not. It's not great. They are publishing their reasoning though and when you read it it's clear that they aren't taking that particular study into account

If schools don't go back before other businesses then maybe employers will keep letting their staff work from home. I know that's not ideal with young children or possible in some jobs but I'm not sure what else can be done.

They’d be utter fools to rush children back to schools before September

I think they will Extend as bank holiday weekend at least by another 2 weeks , then POSs review again allowing a few other small shops to maybe open with social distancing measures

Luxembourg
We are now into our second week of Phase 1 of Deconefinement

Since last Monday 20th April
Everyone must wear a mask or face covering in shops and public transport.
Food shops were already opened just like the UK but DIY and garden centres opened.
Building sites have opened.

There was an initial rush but calmer now.

There is more traffic on the road and this first phase (my opinion) has made some people think that this is the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end to the crisis.

So care is needed as the brakes come off.

Luxembourg
www.leadersleague.com/en/news/luxembourg-initiates-first-phase-of-easing-of-lockdown-measures

Surely this condition in children is a rare post-viral complication. And given there is currently a coronavirus pandemic its entirely plausible that the virus they had was covid19 as opposed to something else.
I'm not suggesting it's not worrying, but I think it's a rare complication of having any virus, not something new about this virus iyswim
Qualifications: I have none, so feel free to assume the above is entirely incorrect

I strongly doubt we'll meet the criteria for ending lockdown they have set the country by then. The PM was clear that easing won't be happening until those points are met so as not to waste the efforts of lockdown so far

I reckon 3 more weeks of lockdown from then and rightly so

all other countries lockdowns have been very long so far, still not eased and we won't be any different.

I think they will Extend as bank holiday weekend at least by another 2 weeks , then POSs review again allowing a few other small shops to maybe open with social distancing measures

Lots of small shops and other small businesses are already allowed to open, but aren't. Many reasons for that. Unable to social distance the staff (small area behind counter, in kitchen etc). Unable to social distance customers (small shop area, no space for queuing outside etc), lack of customers, staff unable to work due to shielding or childcare, owners themselves shielding.

Extending the list of which businesses are allowed to open won't really achieve anything. When the time comes to relax the lockdown, larger changes are needed, such as certain school ages going back to school.

3more weeks.

The thing with schools has been debated lots and there appears to be findings in both studies of the story. It's no where near clear as some posters like to think. It's all very well looking at one report which matches what you would like to happen and believing that one but fortunately the experts like to look at all the reports and judge based on the consensus.

Interestingly those countries who are easing restrictions ahead of us (as they are a few weeks ahead in all this) are NOT just reopening schools first.

In China many schools are still not open and certainly not fully.
Italy isn't reopening schools yet.
Belgium is planning opening but with 10 pupils per class.

I'm not sure I know if anywhere where schools are back open as normal.

Yet so many posters here thing they will be opening in a couple of weeks here and schools will be back to normal.

I would be very surprised if that was the case.

Extend.
I don't think schools will go back properly this academic year. Maybe very staggered split years at the end of June. Primarily the school transition pupils.

I thought we’d already started to slowly come out of lockdown
Government won’t admit it but the TUC are ( according to yesterday’s bbc news) beginning to lean on them to re open shops and businesses
B+q. Costa greggs kfc mcdonalds the construction industry. The roads network
All considering re opening
It will snowball from here

No idea when the schools will reopen tho

I have no idea really .DH keeps "hoping" we will be out of lockdown ASAP, but I feel that a cautious approach is best ,otherwise we risk a second "peak".My son lives about 30 miles away and came home most weekends before Lockdown ,so obv miss seeing him and also worry about food supplies and so on .According to a certain delightful newspaper ,Garden Centres and Council Tips are due to open next week?! I think there will be a slow trickle of shops re opening .Schools will not be ready by May 11th ,Not sure about June 1st either really.

I guess they need first to work with businesses who are not open yet are legally allowed to, in order to understand why they have shut and what support they need to get open again

Given Germany's R has crept back to 1 however, I can't see them being in a rush to do any relaxation

We will need far fewer cases if we are to manage this long term

I'm not sure I know if anywhere where schools are back open as normal

Some areas in Australia have, I think-but they have so few cases/deaths compared to us that it’s not really comparable.

Another extension. The furloughed scheme has been extended until the end of June so i can’t see much changing before then.

Hopefully garden centres, if they don't open soon all stock will be wasted and loads more money lost, no point opening them in too late in year as season will be over. They are the sort of place that probably could open fairly safely but they would probably need to limit to one person to stop days out and too much browsing.