Thoughts on UK lockdown - what will happen on 7th may?

[Bumpandus]

Obviously no one can predict anything

But what are your opinions of what will happen and why?

For example:

Lockdown still for a few more weeks?
Or Ease restrictions but how?

Just interested in people’s thoughts.

[Rosebel]

School can't go back before June because isn't that how long the vulnerable had to stay isolated? I would like them to stay shut until September, but know that's unpopular.
I think the lockdown will be extended but not sure for how much longer.

[Smilemumof2]

I hope it is 1st June! I'm a rubbish teacher and hope my two aren't to far behind! I don't understand why people get so muggy! This thread was just to get people thoughts!

[Goggle1968]

Extend. I think we will be in lockdown until end of May. Our school actually has 2 weeks off so aren’t due back until 8 June. I think some phased returns during the last school term & I think it will be good for the kids even just doing half days/2 days a week so they can keep some distancing in place.

[loobyloo1234]

I think gradual lifting off some restrictions from the 11th May. I.E some clothing shops/cafes to open if social distancing can be practiced. Then a fortnightly lift of restrictions all being well. No idea about schools

[derenstar]

I don’t know about schools going back but my husband works for a major transport provider and they’ve been briefed about and are preparing to ramp up services after 7 May. I would expect based on this that there would be some easing of restrictions.

[Roselilly36]

My guess would be, the quarantine to be extended for a further 3 weeks, till end of May. Increase in fines for people breaking the quarantine, making unnecessary journeys etc.

[RunningNinja79]

I'm wondering if the government don't really know themselves yet what they are going to do regarding the lockdown on 7th May. They are merely suggesting they will be extending it so if they do then it wont be some big shock. Maybe they hope that the figures will get low enough to be able to lift some restrictions? Maybe I'm just wishful thinking.

I really hope they wont just say extended without any further clarification. If they do extend I really hope that they give us a bit more detail. Tell us what they are looking for. How many cases before easing up any restrictions, how low do they want the R to be etc. Tell us a plan maybe. I really hope that they will tell us more than just it's being extended.

[TowerRingInferno]

Another 3 week extension
Some shops allowed to reopen

[NikeDeLaSwoosh]

They are taking their advice from SAGE and their published concerns don't agree with the outcomes of that study

SAGE aren't publishing their 'science' though, thats a big part of the problem for me.

Never in my life have I seen quite such a suspension of critical thinking, to the extent that we've seemingly abandoned the scientific method too.

Future generations will look back on this and wonder what on earth we were thinking.

[walnutwhip124]

SAGE aren't publishing their 'science' though, thats a big part of the problem for me.


They did show the report that 12 - 16 weeks had the greatest impact when schools first closed

[Thighdentitycrisis]

some independent coffee shops near me seem to be opening again.
There were a lot of people about yesterday, out for a walk and stopping to buy a take away coffee from independent restaurants who are open for deliveroo or customer pick ups. It makes people think that going out is not for exercise or essentials.

Saw another today, serving coffee and take away food through the windows and the whole area seems busier.

[Thighdentitycrisis]

Sorry, I realise that doesn't answer the question. If some businesses can open and enforce strict physical distancing then they should but without this being explicitly spelt out by Government I can see it all going badly wrong.

[LilacTree1]

Running “ How many cases before easing up any restrictions, how low do they want the R to be etc.”

Haven’t we gone to the R point they wanted?

Also, this thing about not having a second spike doesn’t fit with the “bites out of the curve” narrative we had originally.

I think lockdown is likely to remain in similar form till mid to late June. They don’t want any chance of schools going back and hopefully people get furlough till the end of June.

[HermioneWeasley]

Even Italy only had a 7 week lockdown which they are releasing in phases. W/c 11th May would be week 7

I don’t think they’ll release before the bank holiday, but some time the following week relaxation will start - more shops allowed to open, meet up with friends and family with social distancing.

Schools maybe back in June

The vulnerable will have to shield until there’s treatment or a vaccine. The 12 weeks is a complete nonsense - none of that will be different in June.

[Letseatgrandma]

Italy locked down on 9th March, I think. Schools there won’t go back until September.

[BogRollBOGOF]

My random guess work is a gradual easing with businesses reopening with social distancing modifications. Retail seems to be an early public facing industry to be adapting. Children grow needing clothes (a lot of adult waistbands too ), clothes shops will fare much better if they can shift seasonal stock. Ditching spring/ summer and having no revenue to invest in future seasons could write off more chains. B&Q is a good start at broadening provision and I don't see why garden centres can't use a similar model of social management.

Localised healthcare provision looks like it's about to widen up based on tonight's briefing.

I'm not expecting "normal" full time schooling during the rest of the school year and very doubtful about anything this side of half term. Possibly targeted priority year groups for part of term 6 or part time schooling with the summer holidays being an oportunity to break and reassess.

The government and their advisors will keep a close eye on the R rate and if it looks like it's going too close to R1, progress will stall or possibly some restrictions reinforced if necessary.

Time will give better opportunity to get the widespread testing and viable tracing systems established to make management more proactive and less reactive. We are getting closer, but clearly not at that stage yet.

[ifonly4]

As much as this is starting to lower my spirits, I'm hoping for an extension in the hope we can save more lives and then feel more comfortable and about moving on.

[Thefaceofboe]

i think they will extend by 3 weeks, then start lifting/relaxing some measures in June

I think this too

[Fairylillie]

I think we will get an extension while the Government watches what happens in Italy and Germany who are releasing their lockdown next week. They'll be looking to see if they get a second wave or infections start to go up again.

Italy aren't sending their schools back until September, I think we will follow.

[Carlislemumof4]

Extension in to June, possibly late June now if cases in a couple of weeks rise again due to those taking themselves out of lockdown/pushing the daily exercise guidelines to the limit.

Some additional shops to reopen late June through to early July with social distancing in place, clothing, footwear (no changing rooms open or fittings), bookshops, home furnishings, small independent craft shops etc. I guess the problem then will be footfall, will reopening be profitable enough.

Cafes, restaurants only allowed to offer takeaways for some months yet.

Schools not back until at least September, there's been huge investment in resources such as BBC Bitesize Daily for online learning for the whole summer term and the government have made clear they won't risk a second wave. Possibly a January return for schools due to flu season, online home learning becoming the new normal for the time being. Also WFH continuing for all those who can well in to the Autumn.

Supermarket queuing, the social distancing measures GP and veterinary surgeries have brought in to stay for the foreseeable future until a widespread vaccination programme.

[StoorieHoose]

Taylor Wimpy sites are opening again in England and Wales on Monday and I'm betting Scotland ones will be the week after. by the 7th they will announce an easing of the restrictions slightly and then three weeks after that non essential shops will open.

Schools will be back after the summer holidays

[Raindancer411]

We won't know what is going to happen, but I am expecting it to be extended another 3 weeks.

As for schools, with this new high lighted inflammatory issue, I think they won't want to open them until they know more on if this is related.

Also just wondered if anyone has thought that the issue with schools going back is not just the social distancing inside schools with kids. But what about the close proximity of parents on drop off and pick up? How would you social distancing hundreds of parents in the playground at the end of the day?

[pfrench]

I'm going for an extension, but with dates of when easing will begin. They need to be careful that there isn't a mass transport of folk all over the country during the end of May half term, so those dates are probably key.

I'm a teacher, I'd personally like to go back in June. But, it won't be school as we've known it. I have no idea how they are going to plan for us to go back part time or with social distancing or whatever. I've thought and thought about it, and there are no easy options. Definitely children who are transitioning between schools should go back. Dunno. I don't want to be doing this half arsed online teaching any longer than I absolutely have to, it's awful and stressful and mostly pointless.

I've read research that says schools aren't an issue because children aren't an issue, and others that show schools (not necessarily children) were hubs of infection in Germany. Presumably more about the community around them, which is where my own concerns are. Once schools go back, if they go back properly, we may as well say an end to community social distancing.

[pfrench]

Oh and reason for not thinking that schools will go back sooner mostly around vulnerable teachers and children still being off, and lots of parents would still choose to keep children off school - same as lots did in the few weeks before we closed. They need to time it right for the public to accept it, otherwise the reasons for going back - children not falling behind - are moot. Loads wont be there.

[Daffodil101]

Surely then you can’t send children back to school until no more staff are shielding. Ie when there’s a vaccine.

That’s utterly impractical.