If the NHS isn’t overwhelmed, why aren’t our death rates better than Italy?

[CarolynMartens]

Totally prepared to be told I am stupid! We are 2 weeks behind Italy and their system was overwhelmed - but I keep reading the NHS isn’t at full capacity or overwhelmed. In 2 weeks it seems likely we’ll reach the figure they’re at now. Should it not be lower?

I know there are discrepancies between the way countries count deaths.

In countries where patients pay some or all of their healthcare bills they have an awareness that being treated costs money and staying healthy is the responsible thing for yourself and for society

Well that explains why Americans, who pay more for healthcare than any other developed country, are all so slim and healthy.

Orrrr maybe it's more complicated than that....

Don't forget that people couldn't possibly have it in the UK if they didn't have a dry cough or fever that started no earlier than x date and they hadn't just come back from x location.

This meant that people who were hacking their guts up on 21 February after somebody in their household came back from x + 3 miles in Italy with a dry continuous cough and a temperature just a week before couldn't possibly have it and were therefore neither tested or treated unless they ended up on death's doorstep. Far more opportunity to spread it around on the bus/train/tube/visits to grandma.

I had it, according to them retrospectively. Whilst I had it, I didn't quite fit the narrow categories (due to having medication that made me a higher risk for complications and non standard presentation). Which meant that hundreds if not thousands of people I came into contact with whilst I didn't fit their criteria - because the person I caught it from didn't fulfil their criteria for testing - potentially took it home and to work with them.

So in truth, our numbers should be far, far worse. But if somebody died and didn't fulfil the test criteria, they weren't counted. People aren't being taken to hospital, Doctors were doing DNRs. More people aren't recorded as having it and surviving, as they've been at home all the time, not fitting the categories for tests.

Give it time for the next wave. Should be just in time for flu season.

And what about the figures from carw homes? Are we totalling gbthem up with those dying hospital? Is the current reported death total reflecting that because if not then things are grimmee

FT said in their research the UK death total is around 41k inc care and community deaths.

The Govt allowed patients with CV to go back into the care system, with no regard for the spread that would cause.
PHE own advice to care homes (up until 31/3) was that there is little risk of CV to either staff or residents.

This has led to 1000s of avoidable deaths, yet the media do not hold the Govt to account, either PHE don't know anything about basic infection control or it was a deliberate move to kill people, Prof Chris Whitty did warn the govt but was ignored.

It is truly scandalous.

I presume they will have to address the "10 percent in care homes" statement that i have heard on more than one occasion.

Because there is no cure, no real treatment. Without critical care beds more people would have died in hospital but there would have been lots dying at home too. Young people and those without other health issues.
A lot of people have recovered in Hospital. Eg Boris would have been dead without hospital treatment. You can’t compare countries the data is not recorded in the same way.