If the NHS isn’t overwhelmed, why aren’t our death rates better than Italy?

[CarolynMartens]

Totally prepared to be told I am stupid! We are 2 weeks behind Italy and their system was overwhelmed - but I keep reading the NHS isn’t at full capacity or overwhelmed. In 2 weeks it seems likely we’ll reach the figure they’re at now. Should it not be lower?

I know there are discrepancies between the way countries count deaths.

Italy's hospitals were overwhelmed because they tried to save everyone

whereas in the UK, people are often told they have to be turning blue before they can be taken to hospital
which is basically keeping the NHS going by restricting access

Difficult to tell which policy saved more deaths overall

The cases in Italy were concentrated in a specific region (Lombardy).

I think it's what BigChoc said, we're telling people to stay at home and phone 111 if it's becoming an issue with breathing. Italy helped people sooner.

I think our death toll will be far higher than other European countries.

Also, the UK never had a very "Hard" lockdown as in Italy or France,
but a compromise to allow a bit more freedom to exercise and shop

and it is not just essential woorkers who are going out to work, but anyone who cannot WFH and whose employer is still open

So there are probably more new infections continuing than in Italy,
but this was judged to be a suitable compromise for the UK

Because this virus kills people who are elderly and/or have significant comorbidities and some of them cannot be saved no matter what you do. Time will tell how the different approaches to attempting to manipulate the rate at which people contract it will alter the final outcome.

We also had more spread for longer - we had 17 flights from Wuhan during Janaury, how many from Italy, Iran, US (in particular NYC) during that time? The virus spreads during a silent undetected phase. Already the US has revised its first death from 23rd Feb to 6th Feb.

I suspect because we were too slow to react.

I think we are going to find that vitamin D is one factor.
But also not treating people sooner.
I very much doubt our lockdown being softer is going to be much of a factor. The vast majority of what people are doing outside (going for socially distanced walks and runs) is safe. More of a factor would be how many people were breaking the rules and meeting indoors.

However all this is guesswork, we will see in time.

Italy made their mistakes. My ex-H is italian and he was speaking to an epidemiologist there. Initially they tried to treat everyone regardless and even people who didn’t have it - who they then brought into hospital and they caught it. That’s why the systems initially was overwhelmed. On the death rates I don’t understand why we are all sitting comparing them when we are so early on in this pandemic. There is no standard WHO way of recording deaths either. So is useless at this stage to be comparing countries when there is not a standardised system.

We locked down too late. Lack of ppe in care homes in particular.

@Underhisi I really would like to understand why when we locked down has affected our death rate when our health service hasn’t been overwhelmed.

@Underhisi I would also like to understand where you read that Italy had sufficient PPE in its care homes. That is simply not true!

Bool, exactly what i was going to say about death rates. There is no standardised system, China changed theirs half way through. So we really aren't comparing like for like and shouldn't be comparing at all.

My feeling is our death toll is much much higher as we are only recording deaths in hospital, yes this is anecdotal, but i personally know 3 people who have died not in hospital of it. They aren't recorded in those figures.

I don't think we will know what the correct way to have dealt with this and total numbers with comparable data until 4/5 years time.

People are getting help too late, from what I hear. But, tbh, different populations will have different susceptibilities anyway, so direct comparisons will be tricky until after the fact.

@evilpea fully agree. And I can tell you now that there are many many more care home and at home deaths in Italy and Spain that aren’t in their official numbers either.

Bool because looking at when the peak occurred it corresponds to people catching it the week before lockdown when socialising was pretty much as normal.
I have no idea about the ppe situation in Italy but I know from people working with covid patients there wasn't enough in hospitals and the care home situation was worse.

The issue about death rates and NHS overwhelmed are not connected. The death rates are the deaths, as simple as that. Our Health system is coping with the deaths and the care of the dying, without running out of beds or ventilators. Italy had trolleys in corridors and the hospitals are over whelmed. It is not the rubbish that is being posted. Vitamin D is a good and useful"vitamin" not a cure for the virus. We have to stop making comparisons its useless and unhelpful. Its a bit like a tsunami, we arent going to stop it, this is damage limitation no more no less. There are so many people that know what they are talking about giving us explanations and reasons and yet social media seems to have to biggest voice. Every day the journalists ask the same questionsr

But yes has others have said the big difference will be in reporting.

Basically what @BigChocFrenzy said. We are not admitting people on the whole until it’s too late. Look at what Germany do.

Why we can’t be more reactive to save lives I don’t know. We have capacity so get people in early and get them on oxygen and monitor them. We should be doing this now.

@underhisi on the ppe situation I agree with you. My point tho is that this won’t be the cause of a discrepancy with Italy because we are all in the same boat when it comes to ppe shortages.

On lockdown - death rates will go up only if there are not enough beds to treat people. Given that there is a surplus of beds in the UK then surely we locked down just at the right time or indeed even too early and too hard.

It is currently ripping through the care homes in Italy.One town I know has been sealed off

@NoMorePoliticsPlease couldn’t agree with you more. It’s exhausting when people don’t watch the briefings and keep spouting the same crap and asking the same questions. Media being the biggest culprit.

Everyone seems to have HEARD that people are getting treatment too late. Has anyone any evidence that isnt hearsay, or someone I know who is a ....

@Delatron I would love to hear from somebody working in the NHS on the point you make.

@NoMorePoliticsPlease my point exactly. There is so much hearsay flying around. Would love to know the actual facts.