If the NHS isn’t overwhelmed, why aren’t our death rates better than Italy?

[CarolynMartens]

Totally prepared to be told I am stupid! We are 2 weeks behind Italy and their system was overwhelmed - but I keep reading the NHS isn’t at full capacity or overwhelmed. In 2 weeks it seems likely we’ll reach the figure they’re at now. Should it not be lower?

I know there are discrepancies between the way countries count deaths.

Why the heck is the owner not putting their hand in their pocket
because first class flights and holiday homes around the world are much more important to them than the safety of mere care workers.

such generalisations here

if no one was admitted until it was too late then the tested figure each day ( in hospitals ) and the death rate would be the same .

Many frontline workers in Italy died as well despite having full PPE .

Also the virus affects people differently . I recently heard of someone in their 60s who died suddenly with heart complications without even calling an ambulance or 111. within 2 days of having symptoms he had gone .

Also I am sure reactions to calls vary from region to region . People pick on one reported case and apply the scenario to all others .

For example people are not getting to hospitals with strokes - well from my personal experience in my area that is definitely NOT true .
Paramedics are arriving quickly and A&E is split for covid and the general side is quieter ( no drunks and time wasters)

Stop comparing countries with different demographics its a waste of time . Every death is a tragedy and I am just sick to death of people who say we locked down too late ( if people had listened that would not have applied) and now are baying for the lockdown to be lifted .

The media have behaved appallingly in all this and I agree we should have a cross party / business discussion going forward and let the opposition do their job as well which is to challenge ( although why they think they know all the answers is a mystery to me ) and the Media should just shut up . IMO.

What kind of person talks about using a stiff broom to deal with frail and vulnerable people,
a person who sees frail and vulnerable people as a kind of dirt to be swept away briskly?

Medical consultants in Italy were contacting their counterparts in the UK and saying that we needed to take this seriously... that they were in the thick of it and couldn’t believe what they were seeing was going on, in the UK (Cheltenham/Crufts/football ... all that).

Our Govt. did nothing at a time when they could’ve looked at others in Europe and acted.

Everyone seems to have HEARD that people are getting treatment too late. Has anyone any evidence that isnt hearsay, or someone I know who is a ....^

My evidence has come from the friends and family of mine who are doctors who say people are presenting too late with Covid and need to come in earlier. That won’t convince you, but it convinces me.

Equally it was reported on the news over the weekend that NHS London has changed its guidance to paramedics. Essentially the threshold was too high and it’s possible may have died because of it.

What kind of person talks about using a stiff broom to deal with frail and vulnerable people, a person who sees frail and vulnerable people as a kind of dirt to be swept away briskly?

Some bloke probably.

Presumably the kind of person who is also stupid enough not to consider the consequences of sending covid patients to die in care homes where there is a high chance of it spreading like wildfire.

What kind of person talks about using a stiff broom to deal with frail and vulnerable people

The kind of blinkered civil servant who has internalized the maxim Protect the NHS! Create capacity! to such an extent, they are willing to do whatever it takes to achieve that. And they are unable to see the lethal paradox which defines some of these policies.

@GCAcademic has a good point. Purely anecdotal, I have a friend originally from Florence (his family still live there) and he's told me that his family and friends are OK, that the pandemic in Italy is very regional. I've asked after his family a few times over the past month and it's always the same answer.

Just one person, I know, but I think it really depends where you are.

The death rate in the UK is far worse than Italy, because the UK death rate only includes those in hospitals, not in care homes or the community.
Look at - Sources: - underneath the graph.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

Medical consultants in Italy were contacting their counterparts in the UK
Yet our government wouldn't listen to to them
British government doesn't like to take direction from medical consultants....these experts just who do they think they are with their inconvenient advice that doesn't fit our political narrative

Death rate in the UK only includes
very likely so, but do we have the true death rate for any countries affected by the pandemic?

Everyone seems to have HEARD that people are getting treatment too late. Has anyone any evidence that isnt hearsay
@TatianaBis

I have cited a Sunday Times article which states that NHS London instructed its paramedics and ambulance crews to apply such a strict criteria for admission to hospital, seriously ill patients were not given medical treatment. This was the protocol from March 12 to April 10th. One month

We have a very unhealthy population on top of a large elderly population, densely populated areas and at a latitude which doesn’t support good Vitamin D. We are sitting ducks compared to many countries, e.g New Zealand and Australia.

What the government needed to do needed to be done years ago, which was getting the population healthy.

tthere are a lot of people comparing the UK to other European countries like Italy or Spain. This is pointless.

A quick google of 'coronavirus deaths in the UK/Spain/Italy' will show you that Italy and Spain had a short sharp spike, which was dealt with quickly and with strict measures. This is now going down and we are nearing the end of the curve, with restrictions being loosened from next week.

The UK reacted 10 days too slowly, and with very weak restrictions (e.g. exercise - which is a total joke to us here in mainland Europe), and it's clear that you are just slowly ramping up to your peak and haven't gotten close to arriving there.

Stop comparing - the UK is in their own league and the NHS is not fit for purpose. The nightingale hospitals being empty is proof that you are handling the situation badly, rather than it being a good thing that they aren't needed. They clearly are needed but nobody can sort it out properly in order to get people there before they die.

It's also worth adding that Italy and Spain have a very elderly population, hence why death rates seemed higher to begin with.

Currently Spain are at 23,000 dead, with the UK at 20,000, yet Spain starting getting a quickly rising number of deaths two weeks earlier...

As far as care homes go, if your granny is paying 1k a week why the heck is the owner not putting their hand in their pocket and ordering ppe for their staff

Because small from care homes or even groups of care homes are tiny compared with orders from the NHS? They have no buying power in the big scheme of things and won't be a priority for wholesalers/suppliers. And it is clear that the NHS has struggled to get what it needs. Worldwide, Governments will have been trying to secure the best deal they can for their healthcare workers and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that PPE has gone to the highest bidders. Care homes didn't stand a chance, did they?

I do think there is an argument for care homes in future buying their PPE from the NHS and the NHS in turn taking responsibility for needs in their area in terms of large orders. Care homes can then rest easy that they will have what they need when they need it.

it's clear that you are just slowly ramping up to your peak and haven't gotten close to arriving there

Infection rates are down, as is the death rate (although I accept yesterday was Sunday and admin issues abound)? The peak was apparently hit on 8th April? We are now on the flattened part of a flattened curve...which was the intended outcome?

Of course whether that in reality was the right thing to do, what the long term situation will be etc. etc. etc remains to be seen. But I would be interested in hearing why you think the peak isn't hit yet?

As PPs have said, we have a different approach to lockdown and a different criteria for referring to hospital.
It is breathtaking that we looked at what happened in Italy and rather than trying to halt the spread by implementing a harsh lockdown earlier, our government decided the lesson was 'try to deter people from going to hospital'.

The death rate in the UK is far worse than Italy, because the UK death rate only includes those in hospitals, not in care homes or the community.

Italian stats omit those too.

The NHS wasn’t overwhelmed before the pandemic either and the service they provided was still pretty poor. Maybe it is actually overwhelmed but we just don’t realise because it’s been like this for years.

B1rdbra1n
"very likely so, but do we have the true death rate for any countries affected by the pandemic?"

That is a very good question, because I heard about a month ago, that Germany is only counting deaths which are directly attributable to the virus and not those where patients had a previous serious health condition.

The media have behaved appallingly in all this and I agree we should have a cross party / business discussion going forward and let the opposition do their job as well which is to challenge ( although why they think they know all the answers is a mystery to me ) and the Media should just shut up

Have to agree re the media. At first they were pathetic with getting the message across re social distancing, self isolation, hand washing etc. Then they falsely reported about "essential workers" giving the clear message that only essential workers were allowed to work and only essential businesses were allowed to open. That led to a lot of businesses closing unnecessarily! Then almost immediatly after lockdown, they were constantly asking the ministers for the exit strategy. I hope there is a robust enquiry which challenges the Govt, the NHS, but also the media, for their respective roles throughout the crisis.

@BovaryX

I was quoting and replying to another poster. I made the same point about the change of guidance of NHS London.

At a guess we have a high rate of underlying health conditions. No coincidence we are one of the unhealthiest and fattest countries in the EU.
Both my sister would works at hospital and paramedic friend said policy of waiting to turn blue before admitted not true .
Lockdown is not a magic wand /cure for CV those on hard early lockdown will have more people vulnerable to it when lockdown fished as not as many have been exposed to it .
Perhaps in other countries there hospitals were rammed with people who would never recover put on ventilators given brutal treatment thats was never going to work or leave them with very poor quality of life .Rather than have them passing in fimliar surroundings. Leading to a shortage of bed and ventinlaters

Yes krong i would have agreed with you, but when a science adviser does it and if is not true then i worry.