If the NHS isn’t overwhelmed, why aren’t our death rates better than Italy?

[CarolynMartens]

Totally prepared to be told I am stupid! We are 2 weeks behind Italy and their system was overwhelmed - but I keep reading the NHS isn’t at full capacity or overwhelmed. In 2 weeks it seems likely we’ll reach the figure they’re at now. Should it not be lower?

I know there are discrepancies between the way countries count deaths.

Another factor to consider is that the U.K. has still not closed its airports nor testing arrivals. 15,000 per day are still arriving from abroad.

Italy tests everyone at the airport and quarantines anyone who tests positive.

*Infection rates are down, as is the death rate (although I accept yesterday was Sunday and admin issues abound)? The peak was apparently hit on 8th April? We are now on the flattened part of a flattened curve...which was the intended outcome?

Of course whether that in reality was the right thing to do, what the long term situation will be etc. etc. etc remains to be seen. But I would be interested in hearing why you think the peak isn't hit yet?*

Deaths on 8th April: 5865
Deaths on 10th April: 5705
Deaths on 17th April: 5599
Deaths on 18th April: 5850
Deaths on 24th April: 5386

Doesn't look like that to me.

It's pointless comparing - this is just the first stage. Everyone is talking about avoiding a second peak/wave but I don't know how this will be possible; unless you can keep R0 under 1 then there will be a second wave. We are at R0

Both my sister would works at hospital and paramedic friend said policy of waiting to turn blue before admitted not true

It is absolutely true that NHS London has changed its guidelines to paramedics to lower the threshold to take people to hospital.

It was reported in the national press over the weekend and on London TV news.

There was a young woman who died when paramedics decided she wasn’t ill enough and one man interviewed on the news had to call the paramedics in 3 times before they would take him. Once admitted the doctors told him he should have come sooner.

I worked for a hospice for seven years. ppe and everything else was sourced and bought by an ex nhs sourcer. They could never rely on nhs, but negotiated case by case, in every case they paid a fraction of what the nhs pays. It is a ballache, but that is how it works in the charity/private sector.

(no drunks and time wasters)

I really hope that one benefit of the crisis is that the NHS (A&E and GPs) will be less tolerant of time wasters. At the moment, they complain bitterly about them, but do nothing to tackle them.

I wonder if they're afraid of the media headline "I bent back my toe nail but the evil A&E doctor turned me away due to savage austerity cuts!"

After Covid is controlled, there'll be a lot of public support for the NHS to be far tougher if it means that "normal" people can get the treatment they actually need, faster and more efficiently.

Likewise with more use of phone and email rather than having to take a day off work for a doctor appointment only to be told they're referring you somewhere else or your test result was all clear - a complete waste of everyone's time that could have been done by phone or email.

The NHS has a once in a lifetime opportunity to reform itself and make it fit for purpose for the 21st Century. They can "reset" with new methods etc and should have massive public support for once. I hope that grasp that opportunity!

We were of course, under strict scientific guidance. Which appears to have included one Mr Dominic Cummings. An unelected (though employed advisor to Johnson). The same Dominic Cummings who rallied many elderly people to Take Back Control and leave the EU. He then proceeded to attempt to throw them under The Big Red Bus as part of his “herd immunity/if that means some pensioners die, too bad” rhetoric. The same one who sits in on SAGE meetings though he is not a scientist.

This Govt. will need to work very hard when this is over to spin this shitshow into a success. Fair play to Boris Johnson this morning though, outside No 10. He’s making a good start.

The UK population is far bigger, going on the number of the population in relation to the area of land the UK comes out with a number like 650 people per square mile, Italy is 197, Spain 210, Germany 235.

Viruses will spread better in more densely populated areas, we can't compare with the other countries as they aren't as over populated as us, we need to compare like with like.

We have had the peak - the rolling 7 day numbers show that.

Deaths at home are included in statistics
No they are not.

From the NHS England website:

COVID-19 Daily Deaths
This section contains information on deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and had tested positive for COVID-19 at time of death. All deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. Interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death, particularly for most recent days, are likely to be updated in future releases. For example as deaths are confirmed as testing positive for COVID-19, as more post-mortem tests are processed and data from them are validated. Any changes are made clear in the daily files.
These figures will be updated at 2pm each day and include confirmed cases reported at 5pm the previous day. Confirmation of COVID-19 diagnosis, death notification and reporting in central figures can take up to several days and the hospitals providing the data are under significant operational pressure. This means that the totals reported at 5pm on each day may not include all deaths that occurred on that day or on recent prior days.
These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes. This approach makes it possible to compile deaths data on a daily basis using up to date figures.

Deaths on 8th April: 5865 Deaths on 10th April: 5705 Deaths on 17th April: 5599 Deaths on 18th April: 5850 Deaths on 24th April: 5386 Doesn't look like that to me

have I missed something....over 5000 deaths per day in the UK? Or new cases?

Doesn't look like what? That quite clearly shows a flattening, there is no significant increase in deaths (your words, not mine) over a couple of weeks there. That's a flattening of the curve. Not a peak. If we had not yet hit the peak, deaths would be increasing day on day? And if they were increasing as they did in the early days, they would be way, way, way more than that now?

@TatianaBis
Just saw that. Apologies! I wonder if there will be an inquiry into this? That protocol was in place for one month

the revelation will add to fears that some patients have only reached hospital when they are already critically ill. Yesterday a study by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre revealed that two-thirds of Covid-19 patients who had needed a ventilator died. Of 4,078 NHS intensive care patients where an outcome was known, 2,067 died and 2,011 were discharged. That equates to a mortality rate of 50.7%.Of those requiring mechanical ventilation in critical care 1,744 (65.4%) died and 923 (34.6%) were discharged. London still had the most Covid-19 patients.Some experts are concerned that many people are not receiving care quickly enough. Richard Levitan, a US doctor, said last week that the number of patients who needed a ventilator could be reduced if people with symptoms such as fever and cough monitored themselves

And we have a bigger population.

@Krong
What figures are you quoting there?

The media have behaved appallingly in all this ...... the Media should just shut up

So just let the govt do as it likes?
With Parliament not sitting normally and an 80 seat majority, the media is all we have to expose Govt failings, such as releasing elderly patients back to care homes without CV test, a utterly moronic decision.

I understood which shops should close or not, so if businesses can't be bothered to navigate to or read the Gov.uk website, thats not the media's fault.
Any business that acts just on what they heard on BBC/ITV or the 'Express deserves to fail.

'Italy' doesn't have one set of numbers. There are over 1000 deaths per million in Lombardy and under 100 in Lazio. No region of the UK ever got as bad as Lombardy, but all regions of England, as well as Wales, have more deaths than the south/midlands of Italy.

A moderate number of deaths over the whole country creates less distress than very many deaths in one particular area.

Can people please stop saying this:

"I heard about a month ago, that Germany is only counting deaths which are directly attributable to the virus and not those where patients had a previous serious health condition."

German authorities have been saying since the beginning that this is not true. They are including deaths even where other serious conditions are present.

After all this is over what I want addressing is why so many of us Brits have underlying issues. Also, over 64% of us are overweight and obese. We have to do something about the health of our nation. Maybe it is the case that our NHS is not underfunded, but there are just too many people using it.

@EvilPea
How are Germany recording deaths differential?

@Frangipanini... excellent point.

If everyone with Covid-19 got treated like Boris Johnson or Prince Charles there would be a much lower mortality rate.

There was a young woman who died when paramedics decided she wasn’t ill enough and one man interviewed on the news had to call the paramedics in 3 times before they would take him. Once admitted the doctors told him he should have come sooner

I Can absolutely believe this to be the case. A relative of mine died of pneumonia (not COVID19) and was told repeatedly “it’s just an infection...antibiotics won’t help” basically “go away”. Days later she was dead despite ventilation. We are still going through a complaint procedure which will now be put on the back burner due to the pandemic.

I think this Govt. will stop at nothing to wriggle and squirm and spin this crisis into a “it could have been so much worse” scenario. Fuckers.

@Frangipanini

As much as I would like that to happen, I wouldn't hold your breath.

The whole system, economic and social, is now set up around unhealthy lifestyles. Takeaways on every corner, 2/3rd of a supermarket selling junk, 'fixing' metabolic conditions with drugs rather than lifestyle. Never mind the gung ho attitude to unhealthiness that has evolved - big is beautiful, pizza nights where people inhale enough for 4 people in one sitting, fat shaming culture...the list goes on.

We have many factors against us in the UK, such as the NHS, dense population pockets, latitude etc, but the very basics that we could have got right is our individual immune system - and that is a disgrace. Men in their 50's becoming seriously ill could have been preventable, certainly no-one in their 30's should be dying of this virus

We are a very sick nation, and have been for years. Jeremy Hunt declared a national emergency for the obesity levels in 2016. That has been disgracefully ignored.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_Kingdom

I think Krong is showing a rolling 7 day total in those numbers, which is much more useful as it eliminates daily differences and spikes

Those numbers quite clearly show a drop from 8th/10th April to now

@BovaryX thank you for that information. I will be looking at the ons figures ( or maybe waiting for someone to explain to me) to see also now many did not get to hospital.