Why are UK numbers so high?

[howdidwegetheremary]

Sorry if this has been asked on other threads.

The numbers of infections and deaths in the U.K., US, Italy, France, and Spain are far higher than anywhere else in the world and this really bothers me.

I know the U.K. was slower to lockdown, didn’t close borders, and is heavily populated but I can’t see how this adds up?

Don’t get me wrong I’m relieved that lots more places are not as heavily affected but how is this?

We are constantly told that the virus thrives through close contact but there are many other countries that are far more heavily populated and live in closer contact than the U.K., US, etc.

Any clue?

howdidwegetheremary - while the UK figures are certainly not very reliable, I'm not sure I share your confidence that Russian figures are either?

I trust the figures from Germany, Italy, Scandinavia.

@Humphriescushion

But those numbers don't tell you if CV related or not? So they're not a great indicator of progress? Especially in Frances strict lockdown.

We aren't the highest and seem to have plateaued.We have a looser lockdown than other contries and will see what happens when they loosen theirs.
Latitude is interesting and plays into the vitamin d theory.The Germans are very heath conscious,wonder if their bit d levels are higher.

Sorry if i was not clear @TimeForChange123 these are figures for cv only. Those nos are updated every day so i can see clearly what is happening. i could track the daily no.s going into intensive care and see when eventually this no.started to come down. I t got i believe scarily close to full capacity. I read somewhere that to come out of lockdown ir was recommended to have less than 50 new addmissions per day into intensive care - there were other criteria not just this( not sure if this a gov requirement or not) but i can track this.

effingterrified one of my suspicions is that other countries who seem to be doing well in comparison to the U.K. and others in Europe is simply down to accuracy of the figures but then again would we not be seeing reports of overwhelmed healthcare services in these places?

It will be interesting to see what happens re hospital figures over the next few weeks as it seems that people are going out more and more now.

Death rate in the UK is high because of high obesity rates and because the sick are being kept out of hospital until it's too late.

I don't think it has much to do with when we locked down, or the "quality" of the lockdown. People have got ill and fared worse because their health is poor to start with, and then when they've got very ill they've been denied access to hospital until it's too late.

effingterrified- lol- I just skimmed this thread looking for the Borisbots' thicko words of wisdom and throwing figures around like they understand them. If it's the poster I think you mean, then maths ain't their strong point.

Mmm interesting, i will keep an eye out next week.

when they've got very ill they've been denied access to hospital until it's too late.

I think this will turn out to be a significant contributory factor to the death rate. From many posters here we have read that 111 and Ambulance services are basically triaging patients so that hospitals are only admitting patients who are turning blue. There was an article in the New York Times last week by an emergency doctor who noticed that a particular feature of Covid-19 pneumonia is that patients often have dangerously low-level of oxygen (hypoxia) before they present with any respiratory problems. They tested the blood oxygen levels of patients with a cough but no breathing problems and they were dangerously hypoxic. They even performed chest x-rays of some patients who were in hospital for non-Covid related reasons and found they had Covid pneumonia. He suggested that by the time patients are presenting with extreme respiratory distress (ie turning blue) the disease was so advanced that it was hard to treat. The suggestion was that early oxygen treatment could be effective, which I have read they do in Germany?

I also do think that we have a large amount of people ignoring the rules .

Despite the fact that everyone on mumsnet seems to think everyone but them is doing lockdown wrong, I am not sure this is correct given there has been over 90% compliance and the modelling figures were based on 75%

I imagine most people are complying because the lockdown cf other counties is fairly relaxed anyway.

I can't believe the figures from some massive countries like Iran India and Russia. You just get the impression majority of deaths aren't being recorded at all. Whilst other countries have done a much better job I think we are doing a reasonable job of reporting, and I have largely got faith in the figures. Care home deaths have been flagged as missing but we know this and it's referred to on charts etc so I don't feel hoodwinked. I can see the logistic problems in collating information from thousands of care homes where no system exists as opposed to hospitals which number in hundreds and have an existing reporting system etc I also understand that the deaths announced aren't specific to that day etc. ONS data clearly shows that Coronavirus has increased average deaths which means I don't need my tin foil hat and say "people would have died anyway"... The medical advisors have done a good job of communicating in my opinion, we've just been fucked over by the vaccum of leadership and crappy leadership when Boris was vertical.

I do feel a bit hoodwinked when the gov says care home deaths at 10 percent. This is not going be true. Other countries are having around 40 percent.

Death rate in the UK is high because of high obesity rates

And here we go again. What’s the evidence of this as everything I have seen suggests the rate of serious illness/death amongst the obese is the same as their prevalence in the general population. The scientific officer the other day said they don’t have much info yet about obesity and the impact, but don’t let this stop you having another go at fat bashing. It’s clear that most people on MN think of obese people as only slightly above dogshit in the food chain. Plus I had thought the OP was asking about infection numbers, not just deaths.

Plus I had thought the OP was asking about infection numbers, not just deaths.

You are correct I was equally concerned about death and infection rates.

In fairness, it kind of stands to reason that a country with one of the highest % of obese people in Europe is going to be one of the least "healthy" generally, with those people at risk of other health complications many of which are respiratory in nature. While the obese are, I imagine, no more likely to be infected than anyone else, there probably will be a significant proportion of deaths attributable in part to a compromised respiratory system caused by obesity.
And it's one of the major co-morbities listed. That and diabetes.

We really aren’t as high as people seem to be making out

The UK is second or third after Belgium and Spain though as of yesterday. (% of those infected who die) The UK was at 13.5%.
Of course, if more testing were being done, that % would be lower. Infection totals would be up bringing % mortality rate down.

Difficult one.

Part of me thinks we can only compare results with excess deaths Vs average deaths over an extended period generally.

Part of me would say the best comparison point will be when we have a vaccine or an effective treatment regimen - as wave 1 is unlikely to be the end point.

The UK's virus distribution is much wider scale - probably because a large number of the cases came from the Alps at half term... So not a regional spread but many individual families across the country. Again Cheltenham and Crufts have a national spread of attendees, meaning the same sort of relative numbers of cases are spread across an entire country rather than concentrated in part of the country (Italy's numbers in Lombardy rather than the entire country)

Rebelwithallthecause that’s just comparing European countries and not with countries across the world

@Rebelwithallthecause i am fairly sure that data for france and probably belguim include care homes, so it is not a fair comparision. The uk has more hospital deaths than france. Sorry i keep pointing this out but it is important.

Exactly. And I don't think the carehome deaths in the UK have been added yet, have they?
It will be an interesting scientific study though, given that the govt says 10% of UK deaths are estimated to be in carehomes whilst every other country estimates about 40%.

@Humphriescushion

But you can track hospital COVID death cases daily in the UK and they've come down dramatically. Is that not a good indicator?

Part of me thinks we can only compare results with excess deaths Vs average deaths over an extended period generally.

This.

DippyAvocado

I read that article in the New York Times too and yes its interesting. There was also one, in the Washington Post I think, about the virus not just attacking the lungs but other organs as well. Heart, Kidneys etc