Why are UK numbers so high?

[howdidwegetheremary]

Sorry if this has been asked on other threads.

The numbers of infections and deaths in the U.K., US, Italy, France, and Spain are far higher than anywhere else in the world and this really bothers me.

I know the U.K. was slower to lockdown, didn’t close borders, and is heavily populated but I can’t see how this adds up?

Don’t get me wrong I’m relieved that lots more places are not as heavily affected but how is this?

We are constantly told that the virus thrives through close contact but there are many other countries that are far more heavily populated and live in closer contact than the U.K., US, etc.

Any clue?

I’m not sure why you have included Iran in your list!

As per my original question of why the U.K. and a few other countries have been affected far worse than others.

My question is not political either. I’m not an expert.

My way of thinking is that no matter what anyone’s option is of the U.K. government’s handing of the crisis here in the U.K., our response seems to have been greater than other countries worse affected.

Late lockdown, no test trace and isolate, no wearing masks, basically incompetent government is your answer. Over 100 dead healthcare workers due to the above policies

Less affected I should have said

My question and I am probably being really thick, we have been in lockdown for 4/5 weeks now, how come the numbers are not starting to drop now? It still ranges 4-5k new cases and 6-800 deaths.
Surely if lockdown is working then those numbers should have started to drop by now.
Please tell me I am an idiot and have missed something as this has confused me.

High numbers of people with poor health and dense living conditions, but we haven't seen the final figures yet

Massive under reporting in some countries. Eg in Ecuador the number of deaths in March and April are more than 12,000 higher than you would expect for that time period in the province of Guayas. Yet the reported covid19 deaths for the whole of Ecuador (not just Guayas) are less than 600 in total. Here's the link:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-52324218

Idroppedthescrewinthetuna

This is what I’ve been concerned about too and why I’m struggling to get my head around the numbers in the U.K. and a few other countries, to me it just simply doesn’t add up

Numbers of new cases continue to increase because we are doing more and more testing. If you looked at number of Covid related admissions to hospital the numbers would be dramatically dropping. As more and more get tested daily, our new infection rate will rise( as only symptomatic people, mainly NHS staff, being tested so high number of positives)but most of these are likely to be mild cases not needing hospitalisation as younger age range and generally fitter. What we will notice now it's as number of infection s go up and number of deaths go down, the percentage likelihood of dying from Covid in UK will also drop dramatically.

I'd hazard a guess that the reason the numbers are so high in EU countries is that we have been recording them properly.

The pattern in other countries is at odds to the pattern here and other EU countries.

I know which figures I would believe.

@howdidwegetheremary don't forget these figures mostly show hospital patients. Our real stats will be so much higher.
Also, do not be alarmed when our numbers jump up loads in the next week as the key workers are now getting tested.

Are the new cases yesterday mainly people who are key workers, care home patients? Or are these new cases people who decided to go to the beach over Easter?

Or are they people like me and you who are social distancing, staying 2 meters away from everybody? If the latter is the case then we do need to rethink our strategy.

If you looked at number of Covid related admissions to hospital the numbers would be dramatically dropping.

I think that is interesting. I thought until yesterday we were only testing hospital admissions.
It would be good if we could see the hospital admissions - obviously the administration who are dealing with the figures will be overwhelmed with work already so this will not be possible. But would be interesting to see.

The hospital admission number is one that was at one point regularly graphed and discussed on the daily briefing.

But has been conspicuous by it's absence since 7th April (at which point it was still rising - which doesn't mesh at all with the contention that the peak number of deaths was on the 8th April.

I would dearly like to know what the figures look like now, but can't find them anywhere.

I know the U.K. was slower to lockdown, didn’t close borders, and is heavily populated but I can’t see how this adds up?

Exponential growth. A matter of a few days too slow doubles the last, largest number.

A few days, many hundreds or even thousands of deaths.

Numbers of people in hospital with CV have dropped 10% in the last week. NHS England as of next week will start planning how to start getting back to routine elective work.

42% of acute beds are empty, A and E attendance and emergency asmissions hugely down in comparison to this time last year with major concerns seriously ill (non-COVID) people are not seeking help.

That's why the public health campaign had to be started reminding the public they can still use the NHS!

I already had a call from the Royal Free booking me back in for my cancelled surgery.

They are booking me in mid June

I had a recent letter to cancel a procedure and have turned to my private health insurance for a referral I needed.

Airports I think you look at the busiest airports and its US cities/Paris/London/Dubai etc. The UK is a massive transport hub and would have been during the key Feb/March time.

Italy/Spain got hit because of Feb Half term

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has a list of death per million and Europe is widely similar

Iran - it would be reporting.

In terms of density in the US it is hitting the population dense cities

poketem thank you for sharing that. India is one of the countries I’m watching with interest to see how things unfold over there and some aspects are still puzzling. I really, really want them to not be greatly affected by this but there are so many factors which, at face value, go against them. Hopefully the approach will work.
But I wonder if there was a big displacement taking place pre and during March as people moved away to go back to either a second home or their actual home. So that the overall number of people in Mumbai during March was much lower than usual.

I can't see how this adds up
It doesn't add up, it multiplies, think 'synergy', think 'perfect storm'

I would also like clearer data on hospitals as @Oakmaiden above says.nos of new admissons, daily nos going into intensive care, no.s discharged. I realise this is not easy however i have been able to track this data in france and was able to see clearly when things improved. Lots of missing information or difficult to understand clearly.

Just checking worldometers again and Russia are reporting a similar number of cases to the U.K. with nowhere near the death rate. Anybody know what they have done differently?

@Humphriescushion

CV cases in hospital have fallen 10% in the last week. The peak of new infection cases in hospitals was April 1st at around 3000 and now apart half that.

A and E attendance down 30% in March compared to March 2019 and emergency admissions to hospitals down 25% in March compared to March last year.

42% of acute beds currently unoccupied.

Not sure about your other queries.

As a % of population they are actually pretty low people just like to forgot the fact we are a densely populated island amongst the mass hysteria going on

If you look at the stats deaths per million of population put us way down the league table even if you did add some more on for cases unreported in care homes

This thread is funny.

A certain very persistent poster who has been religiously trotting out the government line has not posted today.

I guess he only works Mon-Fri!

@TimeForChange123 thanks for that but i actually wanted no.s.

For france i know the following:
Nos, who went to hosptial - 86,000 total
No in hosptial today -- 28,500
Number admitted last 24 hrs-1300
Nos discharged from hosptial 43000
No, discharged in last 24 hrs - 1400
Nos in intensive care 4800 no in 24 hrs 155

Theae no,s have helped me track progress in france and i have an idea of fhe criterial needed to come out lockdown, i realise maybe not all these figures maybe possible but there seems to be very little actual data.