Why are UK numbers so high?

[howdidwegetheremary]

Sorry if this has been asked on other threads.

The numbers of infections and deaths in the U.K., US, Italy, France, and Spain are far higher than anywhere else in the world and this really bothers me.

I know the U.K. was slower to lockdown, didn’t close borders, and is heavily populated but I can’t see how this adds up?

Don’t get me wrong I’m relieved that lots more places are not as heavily affected but how is this?

We are constantly told that the virus thrives through close contact but there are many other countries that are far more heavily populated and live in closer contact than the U.K., US, etc.

Any clue?

I understand about the policy decisions of the U.K. and US and to a large extent agree with the lack of planning and change of tactic part-way though however, the U.K. has a far resources than for example Iran?

I’ll be the first to admit that my research has been limited due to an overload of work commitments and head not wanting to absorb the information.

I think historians reviewing the UK government decision's to let Cheltenham go ahead or the Valencia football match in Liverpool or the Stereophonics gig in Cardiff will be drawing similar conclusions to those looking at Philadelphia's decision to go ahead with a massive parade in 1918, which meant mortality rates there were vastly higher than in St Louis, where everything was locked down soon.

Of course, the problem is that 'those who ignore history are destined to repeat it' and politicians often seem keen on ignoring history.

OP, think that comparing to Iran is probably inaccurate as Iran's figures are almost certainly vastly under-estimated (as are ours, of course, but probably not by so much)?

Re Cheltenham. Cases in Gloucestershire vs rest of southwest and cases in Cheltenham vs rest of Gloucestershire.

Can’t see the photos, sorry.

Many reasons:
Late to lockdown and then lots of people still not following
Population density per square metre compared to other countries in Europe
Lack of testing so that people that have it stay isolated - then isolate for 14 days not 7 as UK guidelines
Obesity - diet
Large BAEM population in cities/housing close together
People have no idea what 2m apart is - brush close to others and when they get tutted by someone rush to Mumsnet to explain their shock and horror at rudeness/passive ag blah de blah
Clapping for the NHS every Thursday whilst standing really close to neighbour/some areas shown on TV look like a free for all get together
High rate of existing health conditions? guessing

Reporting of accurate and comparable figures - do all countries report deaths in the same way - no they don't

There seems to be a correlation between obesity (and obesity /bad diet related conditions) and poor outcomes. We have high levels of obesity compared to many other countries.
Surprisingly, smoking seems to offer some protection against coronavirus, and smoking rates have dropped considerably in the UK.
International travel is quite popular and attainable for British people, lots of the early cases seem to be connected to skiing resorts.

Basically you cant compare as we dont know how many infections there are anywhere.
But antibody testsmight tell us a truer death rate by country.
Our level of infection is very high.
Still getting 4k cases a day. That is a lot. If they all need oxygen and 1k need icu say of which 50+% die that would leave us stuck on 500 deaths a day until the cases drop down.

Lots of international travel C19 cases arriving from China, then Italy etc.
High population density
We abandoned contact tracing far too early
We locked down too late
Extreme lack of testing
Widespread air pollution
Shortage of capacity - I think in the future NHS gatekeeping will be shown to be the cause of many deaths at home

Germany has taken a fundamentally different approach using contact tracing and widespread testing. They researched likely modes of transmission in a C19 hotspot. It shows!

Wonder how long before Cheltenham gets a mention.

5 minutes, and by you.

And by me! But I live here.

LITHUANIA LOCKED DOWN STRAIGHT AWAY PEOPLE ARE NOT ALLOWED TO HAVE SOCIAL CONTACT UNLESS IT IS FAMILY OR AN EMERGENCY. YOU CANNOT GO OUT WITHOUT A MASK AND THAT MEANS EVERYBODY CHILDREN AS WELL YOU CANNOT GO TO SHOPS WITHOUT MASK AND GLOVES. YOU CAN BUY MASKS FROM CHEMISTS "50" PER PERSON PLENTY PPE ONLY 40 PEOPLE TO DATE HAVE DIED SO WHAT ARE THEY DOING RIGHT OR IS IT THAT WE HAVE COMPLETELY COCKED UP IN THIS COUNTRY NOBODY IS LISTENING TO THE GOVERNMENT WHO ARE A JOKE COME ON UK GET YOUR FINGER OUT AND STOP ALL THE DILLY DALLYING

India locked down super early before it really took hold. The cases there are mainly due to tourists coming from Italy initially, then some big religious events have still been going ahead despite lockdown/advice which spread it around alot.

The numbers will be getting a lot worse possibly when we actually start testing properly! Countries have different ways of logging cases and deaths. Different test criteria. You are never going to get an exact measure as we aren't testing the same.

Because our government did nothing for ages.

India have access to barely any tests, doctors have been all over the news saying they can't test, so how can anyone have any idea of the true figures there??

Yes there are differences in counting. France, belguim and ireland include care home deaths so it could appear that the uk is undercounting. ( i know the ons figures are now on the gov graphs but they are behind - the daily reported no, are hospital only)

Interesting point on the obesity actually re U.K. and US but would not had thought that applied to Spain, Italy and France.

Regarding social distancing, we don’t seem to be very good do we? I’ve just been to collect my Tesco shop and the roads/people out looked business as usual.

Large queue for Tesco with lots of families in the queue plus others did not look 2m apart.

You've got a lot more people squashed into a tiny land sharing overcrowded transport and facilities. I'm in Sweden where it's actually quite difficult to get within 2m of anyone. Parking is never a problem outside of the biggest cities and I rarely see a crowded shop. Stockholm of course has the highest rates of infection because it's a crowded city, but the rest of the country seems to be doing all right.

I feel that patients are admitted too late into hospital and then the outcomes arent good. Yes save the nhs and we cant have a surge but there are many beds free but the deaths are high. Something does not add up to me.

Densely populated, heavy reliance on public transport.

UK may have locked down too late although I think that was deliberate. I also think Cheltenham was deliberate.

Germany will come out of this looking a lot better I suspect.

Will other countries - who knows. We can compare at the end. Since we are nowhere near the end of the pandemic we really don't know what countries have got it right.

The UK seems to be in the midst of lockdown fatigue. And we have a high death rate. I do wonder how sustainable it is for countries not as wealthy as us.

The lockdown clearly isn’t tough enough.

The lockdown is tough enough... we just locked down too late. It was always going to take many weeks to get numbers under control. Look at Spain - incredibly strict lockdown, but taking a while to work itself through.

Lots of international travel
High density of population
Less strict lockdown
Lockdown later than other countries
A stronger strain of virus (I am not sure how true this is)
Patients not being admitted to hospital unless they are very very ill
Late with testing
Other guidelines that I have seen have been more straightforward ours it’s too open to interpretation

Too slow to lockdown as the government fannied around, and also played into the whole 'herd immunity' idea which turns out to have no scientific validity. But what do you expect in a government led by someone who cant be bothered to go to COBRA meetings.