Why are UK numbers so high?

[howdidwegetheremary]

Sorry if this has been asked on other threads.

The numbers of infections and deaths in the U.K., US, Italy, France, and Spain are far higher than anywhere else in the world and this really bothers me.

I know the U.K. was slower to lockdown, didn’t close borders, and is heavily populated but I can’t see how this adds up?

Don’t get me wrong I’m relieved that lots more places are not as heavily affected but how is this?

We are constantly told that the virus thrives through close contact but there are many other countries that are far more heavily populated and live in closer contact than the U.K., US, etc.

Any clue?

The virus started in Wuhan and then spread. Iran and Italy (Lombardy in particular) were the next places that saw a surge in cases. Each country is at a different stage. We have always been about 10 days to 2 weeks behind Italy and about 5 days to a week behind France

The global spread takes time. So for effingtrerified to say the UK locked down too late misses the point

Countries locked down when their cases reached a certain number but this did not all happen on the same date

So Italy was first in Europe, then Spain about a week later when it reached the same number, then France, and then the UK a week after that when we reached the same number of cases as the others before had done. Most countries in Europe have more or less followed the same strategy.

China and Asia too but earlier in the numbers. They also locked down earlier than Europe because they had more experience due to the previous SARS outbreak. They also use masks more.

Flaxmeadow if Iran saw a surge in cases at the same time as Lombardy why is their overall infection and death rate nowhere near as bad? Is it not being reported or some other reason?

also played into the whole 'herd immunity' idea which turns out to have no scientific validity

Herd immunity is not a strategy it's an outcome and the government have not even mentioned it as far as I remember. It's more a buzzword used by the media.

Herd immunity is when a large percent of the population have immunity, either by exposure to the virus or by vaccination and so the virus cannot spread anymore because there are not enough people for it infect to cause a widespread outbreak. That's all it means.

if Iran saw a surge in cases at the same time as Lombardy why is their overall infection and death rate nowhere near as bad? Is it not being reported or some other reason?

Maybe it was contained more or maybe the numbers given are not accurate.

The figures cannot reasonably be compared.

It appears that it is not necessarily the case that if a country doesn't lock down then it will have extraordinary levels of infection. If this were the case, then Sweden should be overrun by now. If this hypothesis is correct, then.it appears that other factors contribute to levels of infection, be that demographics, geography or other factors. It is also not necessarily the case that if the UK had shut down in February, that there would have been no cases. As other posters have said, London is tied with New York, as the most influential city worldwide, ad given its status, I reckon it was inevitable the UK would have has an outbreak.

if Iran saw a surge in cases at the same time as Lombardy why is their overall infection and death rate nowhere near as bad? Is it not being reported or some other reason?

I would be very surprised if Iran's reported numbers are even remotely accurate.

Having said that, there is also an objective reason why real Iran's numbers are likely to be better than what we are seeing in Europe. Iran has got much younger population (the median age there is 32 years vs 45.4 in Lombardy).

Planes are still landing from all over the world. People are getting off those planes and going wherever they like, unchecked and untested. Do the maths.

It does seem to have happened that way along political lines. I keep chatting to people online in different, less prominent countries who scarcely know what i'm on about when i try to explain lockdown. Life for them is continuing as normal, and yet the media would have us believe the entire world is at home, sitting tight for a vaccine.

Delaying lockdown. It has a huge effect.

www.minghella.com/eleven-days-in-march/

Belgium and san marino doing significantly worse in deaths/million, netherlands similar.

Belgium is counting all deaths. Deaths where there is a mere suspicion of being covid19 are counted.

The UK is only counting deaths in hospitals.

Student133 probably the reason Sweden’s numbers have remained low is due the low population density as pp in Sweden has said.

It appears there’s no doubt that that large events like Cheltenham and Liverpool caused outbreaks but what about Cumbria? As far as I know there was no connected event there and yet they have seen high infection rates. I know there’s the 2nd home and tourism argument for Cumbria but Cornwall also has those but without the same level of infection?

If you look at the deaths per 1m ,Sweden's numbers are higher than USA? Not as high as ours ofc.

LadyLightning Herd Immunity Is a real thing recognised by scientists, but maybe not on social media where most people get their information from.

Until there's a vaccine we'll be relying on herd immunity for a while so it's just as well.

but what about Cumbria

It only takes on person, or maybe a married couple, to infect a whole region, but If its contained then it won't spread. The first cases in the UK were in York, but as far as I remember there was no cluster in York just after that. Maybe Cumbria was just unfortunate in not catching it time.

A lot of the very early cases in the UK were people who had travelled back from being on holiday in northern Italy. Bergamo in Lombardy was, and still is, really badly affected. It also has an international airport and I expect many local people worked there and picked up the virus there

SpokeTooSoon Fri 24-Apr-20 22:31:25
Planes are still landing from all over the world. People are getting off those planes and going wherever they like, unchecked and untested. Do the maths.

Professor Chris Whitty estimates that around a million people in London alone have had the virus already.

After doing the maths, the numbers getting off those planes don't make a whole lot of difference.

80% of us are going to get it (the other 20% are protected by their genetic mutations).

All countries are in the same boat.

The key objective of health services is to make sure that they are never are ahead of the number of cases at any one time. Deaths are inevitable but they need to be spread out.

In Sweden, where they have had a looser lockdown, they have had lots of deaths but not enough to overwhelm their hospitals.

There are many topics that no one has the stomach to address.

After doing the maths, the numbers getting off those planes don't make a whole lot of difference.

Yeah this has been obvious for ages. They basically confirmed this the other night.

Its getting to the time though that they may need to make difficult decisions. And hopefully introduce more checks. And quarantine. They have said they will need to look at how best to manage this.

But if a person can contaminate an are then why is letting anyone from an infected country a good idea?

area not are

Are loads of passengers getting off these planes though? Passenger planes are used for cargo as well and even more so now.

I know we are increasing testing all the time but after almost 5 weeks of lockdown I think the numbers of new infections is alarming, also the same in Italy, France and Spain (and they have been in lockdown longer).

The other countries have had a much tougher lock down. Spain quite an inhumane lock down. Indent know why it's so high still in these countries, but it is a lot better than it was. We are getting better too. What we are doing is working if we stick with it. Remember also that we have a larger population than each and every one of these countries.

Countries locked down when their cases reached a certain number but this did not all happen on the same date

They didn’t... Different countries locked down earlier or later than others. The UK locked down later, and has higher mortality as a result than many other places.

The actual UK numbers are up to 40% higher than we are actually being told