How long can we carry on like this for?

[Pseudosudocrem]

Anyone else starting to wonder just how long we can carry on like this before everything irrevocably falls apart?

How will we ever recover as a country?

If you do, you are highly unlikely to become seriously ill. If you do, you’ll most probably survive it.

About 20% of people become seriously ill. Many of them will die if the NHS is overstretched.

Correction, should not have gone into lockdown!

@bluebeck thanks for that.

@buttermilkwaffles the IMF analysis is based on some assumptions that might not be met - such as near term end of lockdown, no second or third waves of virus, sufficient fiscal and monetary stimulus from governments.

I agree we have to start back sometime soon. We cannot risk the economy. I say this as an obese 48 year old with genetic liver issues (contributes to obesity but so does my eating). and other ailments. I cannot take any antivirals as my liver will fail.
I will return to work as soon as I’m able. I have children and worry about what their future will look like if we stay locked down till after June. My manager has her PhD in social economics and she has honestly said she is worried (she is in the shielding group) about the future of pensions, welfare, education and the NHS if this carries on.
We have for too long seen death by disease as something that doesn’t happen anymore. Unfortunately it does, I don’t want to risk my children’s future.
There are no good options but we have to be sensible.

I do often think about the possibility when crossing the road. I'm not at particularly high risk of being mown down by a car, but I know it's a possibility.

The difference is that you can take precautions to stop you being run over, i.e. crossing at well lit places with good visibility, crossing at pedestrian crossings, looking properly for oncoming traffic etc.

You are more limited with a virus like Covid as you don't know who is spreading it or what surfaces it's lying on. Your risk increase massively in busy public places as you can't control who's about to sneeze on you! Even if you're careful to avoid people, someone may unexpectedly come into "your" space.

Quite a few smaller shops that are allowed to be open are not. The fishmonger closed since before lock down and is still not open. The newsagent is closed. The chip shop has only just reopened weekends only. The nearest tiny convenience store is closed. Some people are choosing to stay closed.
I am not convinced most shops would get enough business to justify being open. Some would, but a lot would not.

@spoke toosoon, what an intteresting article.I wondered about my 2 AC who are not in a relationship. How lonely they must feel. It's so sad.

@Boudicabooandbulldogs You are not in the highest risk group and will probably be fine. Trust me a child losing a parent is the worse thing that can happen to them. Staying alive for your child is important.

She asks why the public are being left out of the discussion on when lockdown ends.

The public are left out of most discussions. As a collective, we aren't experts and people are likely to choose based on what they think is best for them. Also Brexit...

As an example, my life experiences mean that lockdown is hell. All my worst symptoms from my pstd and gad are coming back, 2 years of therapy undone. I'm terrified I'm turning into my own abusive mum because I can't get a break from the kids and when I feel like this, I need silence and no physical contact whatsover. As someone who has never been afraid of death since nearly being killed, I am trapped in my worst nightmare right now.

I would obviously make different choices to someone who is/who has someone they love on the shielding list. Someone who feels they are in danger of losing their income/house etc would also make a different choice. We all have different tolerances towards risk as well.

I agree we have to start back sometime soon. We cannot risk the economy.

The economy is at risk of 100s of thousands of people die too though.

"The public are left out of most discussions. As a collective, we aren't experts and people are likely to choose based on what they think is best for them. Also Brexit..."

Yep, our representatives represent our interests. Write to your MP if you have something to contirbute.

A 1% death rate means a lot of people will die. Most of us know more than a 100 people. In a lot of families this will mean someone in your immediate family is at risk of dying.

The cracks are appearing here in my hometown.Over the last week way more traffic on the roads way more people about. It is a worry and a great concern to me that advice isnt being listened to and followed.

As long as we have to

Anyway don't worry, I am sure lock down will end soon. Then everyone who is vulnerable or shielded will just have to live with the terror that they may die soon.

Quite a few smaller shops that are allowed to be open are not. The fishmonger closed since before lock down and is still not open. The newsagent is closed. The chip shop has only just reopened weekends only. The nearest tiny convenience store is closed. Some people are choosing to stay closed.

We have the opposite here. The butcher, the baker and the fishmonger are all still open. A guy who catches shellfish which are normally sold to Europe is doing homedeliveries. Local farmshops are doing a roaring trade in fresh local produce. The woman who made my wedding cake is doing deliveries of doughnuts/muffins etc. Three of the local pubs (ours and one each in the next two villages) are doing takeouts of hot food and alcohol to use up whatever is already in the pumps although you can buy wine by the bottle as well.

@alloutoffucks
I appreciate that, having lost both my own parents before I was 20. I adored them and they me. That love has not gone it’s there everyday of my life.
I have also been homeless (thankfully for a very short period). I will not go there again. Now I know I’m unlikely too. But others are, how many of them would choose not to go there. How many of our cancer patients will die when the funding is cut for their drugs and it will be cut in a recession. They have children, they deserve a health economy. What if my daughter has my condition but cannot have the very expensive treatment I had in my late 20s to keep me alive.
We need an economy to survive

The economy is at risk of 100s of thousands of people die too though

It’s really not. The over 70s are a massive drain on public finances.

It is this age group that are most likely to die, awful as it is to say, the decrease in number of this age group will hugely benefit the economy.

And anyone undergoing cancer treatment is at a very high risk of dying if they contract covid 19. Ending the lock down does not change that fact.
The NHS will be even more overwhelmed with covid 19 patients and will struggle even more to give treatment to those who need it for other reasons.
I don't believe for one minute that those who want lock down to end do so because of people with cancer. If they did they would understand this puts them more at risk.
People who want lock down to end want to go out socially again, to see their family and friends, and in some cases get back to work. They want to make sure they have enough money to have a great social life and their kids to have good jobs. It is nothing to do with people who might die. So maybe just own this?

Anyway don't worry, I am sure lock down will end soon. Then everyone who is vulnerable or shielded will just have to live with the terror that they may die soon.

I don't think it will end in the near future.. Even if they let shops, cinemas theatres etc reopen I'm not sure that they will get enough business to survive if there are still many people dying from coronavirus.

can’t go on like this for much longer. I’d let younger people out first

And the person worried about the NHS and pensions in the future? Lots of old people dying will reduce the state pension bill, sick people dying will reduce the social care bill and other NHS treatments and welfare benefits. So ending lock down will reduce the amount the state has to pay out.

If you work it out at an average 500 deaths a day (taking into account more peaks after lockdown release). That’s 273,000 deaths in 18 months.

Worth thinking about for those who think this is nothing and we’ll all go back to normal. Think about it practically- there are doctors and nurses amongst the dead (some quite young). That level of death is going to take a staggering amount of time and resources. It represents a 25% increase in mortality per annum. Not to mention the extra demand in hospitals.

The more restrictions on social mixing put in place the lower those numbers will be and the less strain out on hospitals, morgues and care services.

We will all have to accept a different style of life for a while. I can’t see gathering of more than twenty people being allowed until after everyone is vaccinated.

It’s really not. The over 70s are a massive drain on public finances.

The people dying are not just those over 70. Many are in their 50s and 60s.