How long can we carry on like this for?

[Pseudosudocrem]

Anyone else starting to wonder just how long we can carry on like this before everything irrevocably falls apart?

How will we ever recover as a country?

If people do not build up antibody immunity then lockdown is pretty pointless.

Yep it’s about risk assessment now and learning how we can live with this virus around. As it will be for a while. We can’t stay locked down for months and months and that was never the plan anyway.

At the moment we are all concentrating on the coronavirus victims when there is now many people with cancer and other serious illnesses that are now not getting their treatment/operation.

They will be even less likely to get treatment if everything goes back to normal and hundreds of thousands of people get coronavirus as a result.

@serialtester

I can't link to the full document but there is a link to it at the bottom of this page - www.unison.org.uk/news/article/2020/04/unison-calls-government-prioritise-staff-safety-re-opening-schools/

It discusses Modelling carried out for any of the re-opening options being considered, including the impact on the number of cases of Covid-19 and consequent deaths amongst staff, children and their families and carers.

If people do not build up antibody immunity then lockdown is pretty pointless.

No because it gives time to develop a vaccine and complete trials on potential treatments to better equip hospitals.

People are just quoting statistics and "research" here to justify their own opinions and wishes

No, people read research and form their opinions based on the findings.

They even look at methodology to determine how much weight they should place of the findings of different types of research.

Imagine!

@LooQoo those statistics are NOW. Whilst the nhs is coping. Not if we didn't follow the measures which is what the whole thread is about.

People are being treated and surviving. They won't if we just go about business as usual. People here are conveniently ignoring that fact

How do you suggest I "choose wether to isolate"? Should DH give up his essential job? Should I keep the kids off school whilst their peers attend? Should I get to work as I'm under 45?

I must admit I'm thinking the same. It's only been a few weeks with another 3 to go and then who knows. But I feel so far away from my old life. The life where we rushed in the morning to be out for the school run at 8.10am. the days where we walked 4 miles in total on the school runs (DD only two of them) chatting to Friends and stuff. The structure of Sundays and getting prepped for a new week. Normal weekends with swimming. Homework. Seeing family. Going out to play at the local national trust play area.

I also worry how we can recover from this financially. All these shops making no money. All these unused leisure centres, cinemas, theatres etc. Zoos and animal farms with no money being made from visitors.

People on 80% pay may not be able to pay for everything on that. My partner relies on his overtime for us to be comfortable and we can manage thanks to some savings. But it's really scary if it goes beyond a few months.

What about other things being left like smears, blood tests, cancer treatment, scans and tests for many other things.

The fact nobody is allowed on holiday at the best time of the year april-september. All the seaside towns and holiday home owners etc will also be taking a huge hit. So many businesses will be unable to recover from this. My biggest fear is that none of us will be feeling safe or relaxed whilst this threat is around. It's not over until a vaccine is available and successful

I won't be immediately badly affected by a recession, my children would be fine to continue these measures for some time.

That's fine - that is a decision you can make for yourself. Not sure that a large section of society are in the same position as you.

@BeijingBikini

I personally don't know anything (I am not an economist). But most forecasts are saying this will be a short term shock followed by a recovery.

Nothing has really changed since the start of lock down in terms of vaccines, testing etc

That was never the plan. It was all about buying some time for the NHS to get prepared. There was never going to be a vaccine nor widespread testing, not even in 3 months, let alone 3 weeks.

It's hammered home to people the need for social distancing, better personal hygiene, avoiding large cramped gatherings, etc. So that when restrictions are relaxed, it has to be hoped that most sensible people carry on with sensible precautions for the forthcoming months, to try to keep the spread as slow/controlled as possible.

As the months pass, it's also to be hoped that the medics find better ways of treating it, so that people who catch it are less likely to die. And also that the number crunchers can work on the statistics to come up with better figures as to who are the groups (sex, race, age, health condition etc) most at risk so that they can be shielded, and those more likely to survive can come out of shielding.

We're in this for the long term. Big gatherings like sports, music festivals, etc are at least a year away. We'll probably see schools open this Summer, together with more shops, but it's going to be a very slow process.

Until there's a vaccine, things aren't going to get back anywhere near normal.

@NikeDeLaSwoosh bang away. It's you that sounds idiotic.

If you think statistical analysis of the current measures would be any reflection of lifting lockdown measures completely then you are living in lalaland. Both sides of the argument are being propped up with research, statistics and even guardian articles.

The fact you're utterly convinced I'll likely be dead in 12 months anyway is amusing.

Imagine

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/18/stop-treating-us-like-children-let-us-have-grown-up-discussion/

Excellent article the the Telegraph by Janet Daly. It’s behind the paywall but I think you can read a couple of articles a day without signing up. She asks why the public are being left out of the discussion on when lockdown ends. The implications for mental health, how much children and young people will suffer from the interruption to their social bonds. Single people unable to form attachments.

Most interesting is this question: If you are, say, 85 years old and you have a choice between possibly catching the virus or living out what might be your final year of life without ever seeing your grandchildren again, which would you go for?

Another poster shared this yesterday. There is a tiny risk of the under 45s, with no underlying health conditions, dying from this. Get the under 45s back to work.

That would mean about half the work force won't be working. What about the people who live with the under 45s? What about the NHS workers who have to treat them? Many are over 45 including the hospital consultants.

Let’s remember. You are highly unlikely to catch it. If you do, you are highly unlikely to become seriously ill. If you do, you’ll most probably survive it.

I don't think we'll be out until June and even then there will be many restrictions, maybe for 2 years until we have a vaccine.
I don't think it will be forever.

@circusintown you’re completely misunderstanding @NikeDeLaSwoosh ..

Before all this happened were you personally worried about your risk of dying in the next 12 months? If yes, you had a high risk of dying in the next year, then you’d be right to be extremely worried about contracting Covid-19. However, if you weren’t, practise basic hygiene and try not to worry too much.

Raab said another three weeks lockdown ‘at least’ -I think that’s paving the way for one more of three weeks afterwards. That takes us to 12.

"Let’s remember. You are highly unlikely to catch it."

I don't think that's true. It's very contagious. Once we're mixing again, we have a high chance of catching it sometime.

"f you do, you are highly unlikely to become seriously ill. If you do, you’ll most probably survive it."

Yes, I think that's true.
However, I don't want to catch it when there is no ICU bed for me.

They could reopen a lot of shops now with social distancing measures.

Who is "they"? Lots of shops are already allowed to open but are choosing not to. We need to examine why. Is it because the staff/owners are vulnerable and in lock down? Is it because staff/owner's children need looking after as they're not in school? Is it lack of customers? Is it because their suppliers have shut? Is it because the premises are too small/wrong layout for staff/customers to keep 2 metre distance? Is it because the owners are happy to take the grants/support being offered to them?

In our village, the garage, chip shop and bakery have all closed. None of them were forced to close by govt diktat. All were on the list of businesses allowed to stay open. So we need to know why they're closed and what can be done to force them to re-open to get things moving again.

Let’s remember. You are highly unlikely to catch it. If you do, you are highly unlikely to become seriously ill. If you do, you’ll most probably survive it.

Considering they think that 80% of the population will get it without measures to control it I'm not sure how you work out that people are "unlikely to catch it".

@circusintown

When you resort to playing the man not the ball, you’ve immediately lost the argument.

I won’t be reporting your post to MNHQ though, it better undermines your argument to allow it to stand.

"Before all this happened were you personally worried about your risk of dying in the next 12 months?"

I do often think about the possibility when crossing the road. I'm not at particularly high risk of being mown down by a car, but I know it's a possibility. We don't generally ignore things where there's a risk of death.

Get the under 45s back to work.

What about the under 45s with underlying health conditions?

What about the under 45s living in households with vulnerable people such as those with health conditions, the elderly, those shielding, etc?

What about all those over 45, many of whom will be business owners, managers, supervisors, consultants, etc. - the people whose organisations can't function without them? There aren't many senior hospital consultants under 45, nor senior partners in firms of accountants, solicitors, etc. Can all these organisations function effectively with younger, mostly inexperienced and less senior, workers running them?

It isn't just about individual risk though. If we do not have mitigating measures in place then even the small percentage of people in each category or age or health who require time off work, hospital care, or who die, will become an overwhelming number. Overwhelming to both the public services and the private sector.

Complaining about how shit all this is is understandable. But people specifically saying that we should have gone into lockdown having reached the level of transmission we had at that point, haven't yet as far as I can see come up with any alternative. And those complaining about the effects of the current lockdown continuing indefinitely are making valid points to add to the discussion, but at this point it is hypothetical.