How long can we carry on like this for?

[Pseudosudocrem]

Anyone else starting to wonder just how long we can carry on like this before everything irrevocably falls apart?

How will we ever recover as a country?

I agree it will be interesting to see if our lockdown was severe enough. I hope so and we are seeing good signs in the data,

In principle, a family out walking at distance from other families may be no more problem than a family at home. It depends in the detail on how transmission is really occurring. If it's primarily through close proximity, the walks outside will be no great risk whilst giving great mental and physical health benefits

Tricky to make the balanced calls with so little data

You'd maybe think the insurance industry doesn't need people to leave the house but actually it does, fewer cars on the road, less insurance needed, less accidents.
Even if all the burglars stayed home that would be less work.

People are going to still pay for insurance. The fact that there are fewer claims will mean insurers make more money. They will win out of this not lose.

No point in a writer, writing if the printing press people aren't working. Ok some books could be published in E format but that's about it.

People are still buying books online! My DD has ordered loads . I read a lot of books on my Kindle .Probably even more than usual so again writers will not be losing money out of this.

That includes the bricklayer in construction needing to be on site so the office people who buy the bricks, and the accounts who pay the wages and the management who win contracts have work.

Houses are still being built where I live.

Sweden may have a higher rate, but it hasn’t put healthy people under quarantine. That’s a massive win right now.

Many people in the UK were saying the same thing a few weeks ago. Look where we are now. I bet Sweden will be in lockdown shortly too and the death rates will probably be a lot higher than their neighbours. It may never be as high as ours that will be more to do with the fact that it is less densely populated so they can get away with it.

As for everyone saying people are ignoring lock down I've seen no evidence of this personally I think we're obeying it a lot better then they thought we would.
The flights coming in and out completely baffles my brain they say one thing and do another it's a complete farce of a system in my eyes.
My partner got laid off as he refused to work as it wasn't two metre distance on a construction site so he has no job to go back to and is self employed so we have no income now just mine at 80% while he rings around in three weeks begging for work if they open sites back up there is no winners in this situation. Good for those they want to stay locked up for the next six months but we need money we need food and bills to be paid so we haven't got that option and neither have most of us. So we have to go back ti normal don't we and see what happens what else is there to do?

@Appuskidu So what do you suggest. Tell vulnerable school staff they have to come to work and risk dying? Remember they were previously told to stay at home for 12 weeks to stop themselves dying.

But the next pandemic I referred to isn't some unknown one in the future - it's the next peak of this one which the doom-mongers insist is due in the autumn. On that analysis, if locking down for "months and months" now joins up with doing it again in autumn (and up to 6 more times, according to some), I'd be interested to know where the money's supposed to come from to pay for everything else

If we lockdown sooner the peak won't be as bad and will be much more prepared. Hopefully there will be medicines which will reduce the risk of death, not to mention an adequate supply of ventilators and other equipment.

It may be that whilst the virus is widespread in the uk, then it makes little point quarantine new arrivals who may have the same probability of infection as anyone else

It may be that we see quarentine of new arrivals as part off the exit lockdown process

If we get to test and trace the any future peaks may be tiny anthills in comparison to this one . That would inthink be the least damaging long term , but may require more surveillance than many are happy with.

Although the design of the test and trace app I heard about is pretty sound, with no location data gathered and no way to know who you have been in contact with

To me it's trading one freedom for another so I would go for it

It is ridiculous to say our entire leisure/hospitality industry will just be left closed. They will have to adapt a bit, sure. But people will want to be able to go out and socialise and do these things still. Whether you will do it yourself or whether you agree with it or not, they will open at some point and people will go.

Enough people have to go for them to make profit though and as they weren't doing very well anyway many will go out of business particularly those that don't adapt.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/11428725/secret-traffic-light-lockdown-masterplan/

Three steps to lift lock down. It will be a stagger progress like other Europe countries.

Love the claim that it is "top secret" when it is splashed all over The Sun. The exit strategy looks reasonably sensible but I doubt very much that those dates are anything more than very speculative. Deaths have not started to fall yet.

That plan in the Sun looks like common sense and will probably be the model. But, note that social distancing, wearing masks in public transport, etc will remain the norm until a vaccine, so that does mean a lot of big gatherings can't take place - you can't social distance at Glastonbury or a premier league football match. Many cafes, pubs and restaurants simply won't be viable if they have to remove lots of tables/chairs so people are over 2 metres apart (which is 5 metres to allow staff and other customers past them leaving the 2 metre gap!).

I also wonder about the amber phase involving "small business with up to 50 people" being allowed to reopen. Most businesses outside the leisure industry haven't been forced to shut in the first place.

I can understand the heartfelt desire for things to get back to normal (familiar awful).

On a personal level I thought that my life had ended when DS1 (autistic) failed secondary transition and I pinned all my hopes on Tribunal/ss placement so that I could continue my PhD/career. And then my mum died in an awful way and DS1's placement failed and it was all screwed and I fell into complex mourning and a deep depression where every day was consumed by keeping my beautiful son alive.

I only started to feel better and become more resilient when I accepted that things would never return to what they were before and accept that I and we could survive and thrive as things really were, rather than how I expected them to be.

I can only control myself - not in a harsh way but by accepting and observing thoughts and feelings - obviously I have learned to meditate. It may not have made problems go away - that is not the aim - but it has never made them worse.

My life now is not what I ever expected but in the most important ways is better.

I hope you all get where you need to be at the pace you need to go. Guilt tripping won't get you there any faster. It's a personal journey you need to make before you can see others in your community or society.

'We can't give a date' for when schools will return, minister says

Officials deny reports the government is considering a "traffic light" strategy to come out of lockdown.

Most people are employed in small businesses.

KeepOn “ It's a personal journey you need to make before you can see others in your community or society.”

I can’t make a personal journey without risking fine or arrest.

@lilactree1

You are allowed out Lilac, although I know it is hard if you live a bad area and can't travel further afield for a walk. I really feel for you there. It's allowed to drive to somewhere to walk...is it allowed to use public transport? I don't know, but would guess not. That said you could socially distance on the buses near me right now, they go past in view of my window and I get a rough impression over 90% are completely empty. On the ones where there is a person or two you had to look to find them before it zooms past. Not that I have nothing better to do than look at buses or anything.

I only started to feel better and become more resilient when I accepted that things would never return to what they were before and accept that I and we could survive and thrive as things really were, rather than how I expected them to be.

I'm happy for you that you got to that point but everyone is different. I've been trying to accept that since I was raped 20 years ago and it's still very much a work in progress (that this has majorly set back because I'm currently stuck in my worst nightmare with all my pstd symptoms back). In some ways, I think having lost one "life" already, I'm actually finding this harder than friends and family who haven't haven't had the rug pulled out from under them before. They're finding it "novel", I'm finding it triggering and so rage inducing I'm not sure I can describe it properly. I need my second "old" life back. I can't accept losing it because if I do, it feels like the final nail in my coffin. I can't even get any antidepressants because despite still being under the Adult mental health team, my psychiatrist has been redeployed and no one else is willing to prescribe me anything. I'm resilient apparently.

Many cafes, pubs and restaurants simply won't be viable if they have to remove lots of tables/chairs so people are over 2 metres apart (which is 5 metres to allow staff and other customers past them leaving the 2 metre gap!)

And yet supermarkets/food shops are open that haven't got enough space to enable 2m gap between customers and where they have the gap is often taken up with staff trying to restock and fools barging through

@dinosauratemydaffodils

I am so sorry you are going through that. I know it is a tough time for a lot of people.

I am finding amongst those I know who already have serious mental health problems that the reactions are varied. One friend who was actively suicidal says she has far less suicidal thoughts since lock down. Another who has periods of psychosis seems to be slipping into another psychosis and she has agreed to contact her Dr for help.

For those who need a particular routine for their mental health, lock down will be harder and will make them worse. But for some I think it can almost take the pressure of and give time and space to just be. I think this is why my previously actively suicidal friend is doing much better.

@FliesandPies I am finding small shops like butchers only let 1 customer in at a time. So easy to maintain social distance.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that not every country has a free health service ( thinking USA) .I guess many would die at home, sadly.

Take away places have remained pen as well because you can just let 1 customer in at a time or do click and collect. It is eat in places that are not going to be viable if you have to socially distance. And it is these places that were already struggling before lock down because people stopped going.
If you think all you have to do to get people flocking back to cafes, restaurants and bars is end lock down, I think you are going to be disappointed sadly. I know I am not going to eat out again until there are very few deaths so I am convinced the risk is very low. The only places I can see being viable are places that can do far apart outside tables in nice weather outside. So country pubs with large beer gardens might be okay. But most places no.