How long can we carry on like this for?

[Pseudosudocrem]

Anyone else starting to wonder just how long we can carry on like this before everything irrevocably falls apart?

How will we ever recover as a country?

I think with construction it also depends on the company.

Beijing, cross post. Yes, totally see your point.

I like to think that we would act much quicker if another pandemic looked like it was on it's way

So would I, though frankly I've little faith in this

But the next pandemic I referred to isn't some unknown one in the future - it's the next peak of this one which the doom-mongers insist is due in the autumn. On that analysis, if locking down for "months and months" now joins up with doing it again in autumn (and up to 6 more times, according to some), I'd be interested to know where the money's supposed to come from to pay for everything else

On all the threads I've seen the usual answer to this is deflection and "it'll be much, much worse if we don't have a long lockdown", but unfortunately that doesn't answer the hard questions about the economy or anything else

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Maybe they’re assuming we won’t necessarily have half term breaks in view of all the catching up that needs to be done?

There's no way recreational and "fun" activities will re start any time soon. Cafes, pubs, restaurants, sports, pop festivals, cinemas, etc won't be re-opening for a long time. Workers in those industries need to think about changing jobs.

I'd like to know how much of the economy, or GDP or some measure these jobs make up.

Seems unlikely to me that we can just eliminate this part of society from an economic point of view, even if everyone could just "change jobs" to another industry.

And that's without even considering the mental health aspects of no one having any leisure to look forward to.

There's no way recreational and "fun" activities will re start any time soon. Cafes, pubs, restaurants, sports, pop festivals, cinemas, etc won't be re-opening for a long time. Workers in those industries need to think about changing jobs.
Please tell us how you know this, Boris. Or is it just doom mongering? And what jobs will they do? Is there now a magic job tree, as well as a magic money tree?

Somebody get me off Mumsnet, I can't take the doom-mongering any more!

For a start, we can follow the best practice of other countries that have successfully used non-pharmalogical interventions (community testing, contract tracing, quarantine, mask wearing, community and personal hygiene measures, social distancing) to both limit spread and save lives AND protect the economy by avoiding lockdown altogether or target/limit the length of time of lockdown. Failure to act quickly using all methods directly leads to worse outcomes for individuals and the economy.

Also, there needs to be increased understanding that taxpayers don't just fund public services like the NHS but also fund bailouts to millionaires/billionaires. Eg the justification of paying millions in dividend payments whilst taking taxpayer funded bailouts that essentially mean that taxpayers are funding dividend payments.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/08/tesco-sales-up-30-per-cent-because-of-pre-lockdown-stockpiling-coronavirus?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

@wanderings totally agree with you!

@wanderings yes, according to MN we may as well just buy a rope to hang ourselves with now because lockdown will be for 10 more years until we all look like Gollum. But we're not allowed to buy rope because it's non-essential and Sheila from next door will dob us in.

It is ridiculous to say our entire leisure/hospitality industry will just be left closed. They will have to adapt a bit, sure. But people will want to be able to go out and socialise and do these things still. Whether you will do it yourself or whether you agree with it or not, they will open at some point and people will go.
Dh works for a company in the leisure industry currently completely closed. They get multiple emails daily from customers asking when they might be able to reopen.

Beijing

What frightens me is if the government agree with MN.

If they’re all paralysed because Boris, we really need to rethink how our government works.

I’ll try and be positive. We are on lockdown for another three weeks minimum. We can’t speculate what will happen with regards to things opening again. No one knows, we are taking each day as it comes.
I don’t know what will happen but I can’t see the government wanting ten or more million people to go on benefits if this continues for too long.
What worries me is that after say ten weeks of a lockdown and people are still dying, then what? People will lose faith and think it was all a waste of time. Won’t that prove that the lockdown didn’t work?

If you're vulnerable get paid to stay home. Everyone else goes out and back to normal.

Tootletum

I would vote for you! This is far more sensible than what we are doing.

Define vulnerable. What is the expected death rate at which you will be expected to put on a brave face? 1%? 10%?

How many people were in that ‘vulnerable’ group though-that was well over half our school staff?!

So, they all stay home in full pay (until when...?) and we try to somehow find enough supply teachers to staff the remainder of the school?!

I can see a few problems with that plan!!

Lockdowns are working elsewhere. If they don't work here it means it wasn't harsh enough or too many people are too selfish

What worries me is that after say ten weeks of a lockdown and people are still dying, then what? People will lose faith and think it was all a waste of time. Won’t that prove that the lockdown didn’t work?

This is not going away.

Lockdown was to get a handle on it and prevent a tsunami on the health system.

More tests, good tracking, more protective equipment, will help everyone go back to a more normal life.

But it won't disappear.

I'd like to know how much of the economy, or GDP or some measure these jobs make up

According to this, the leisure industry accounts for about £117 billion revenue and 7.4% of GDP www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/press-releases/articles/leisure-sector-grows-to-117-billion.html

But those figures were for 2016 (I can't find anything newer) and it says the sector's growing at 5% pa, so it's likely to be more now

Midgebabe your right to say that lockdowns worked in other countries. But here it wasn’t a proper lockdown as such. We don’t have police road blocks, or big fines.
Apart from things being closed, people can wander around as they like. I’m still seeing 6 or 7 family members all out together , and I’m talking about older teenagers and adults.
In Germany for example you could only go out in 2s. If we do it shouldn’t we do it properly?? No point shutting public places down and letting the world and his wife mooch around willy nilly.

Tracking and testing, it would take too long to do the entire population. I can’t see how that can be a realistic solution.

You don't need to test the entire population in test and trace

You only need test anyone who has been in significant contact with a carrier and the people who they have been in contact with. That seems to be enough given the experience in South Korea and Tiwan for example even if you don't trust China

It only works when the starting point is very low levels in the community, so either at the very start or after a significant lockdown

And you will need to keep some distancing and hygiene rules going to avoid the asymptomatic causing spikes l but even them can be picked up quite quickly if you have good trace mechanisms

We need to ease some of the restrictions it's got to a point where people will take their chances with this virus then carry on like this. I haven't seen my mom for 6 weeks or any of my family but it's ok for 'staff' to go standing singing outside hospitals but I can't see my mom in her own home or vice versa or I got called selfish because I took my kids to the park for their half an hour walk the other day with all these little snitches about telling everyone how to live their life.
This virus has made my anxiety so bad now it's like what's the point living in fear like this for my mental health to be shot to bits for something we have very little control over let's face it and I might not see my family again if one of us catch it from the corner shop today for instance.
I want to take my kids to play football for an hour without being stared at like I just stabbed someone in cold blood and I'm staying at home and saving lives.
Private hospitals are empty btw which the NHS have taken over but no patients in there which yes is a good thing but we aren't on our knees as much as is being said if we can spare twenty mins off the ward to sing songs and clap.
Preparing to be shot down for this post.

What worries me is that after say ten weeks of a lockdown and people are still dying, then what? People will lose faith and think it was all a waste of time. Won’t that prove that the lockdown didn’t work?

We havn't got a proper lockdown. There are thousands of people flying in from abroad every single day. There are people still having parties. There are people going out shopping every day. There are people mixing households. If numbers don't come down it's because we're not being strict enough with the lockdown.