Given Iceland's data surely schools should go back.

[Floatyboat]

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?query=featured_coronavirus

It appears that kids either don't get it much or their immune system stamps it out so quick the chance of transmission is very low. Iceland has been able to keep schools open and still gets these figures for under 10's.

Clearly some caution/graded opening may be sensible but to continue with the current status quo and all the associated harm is not justified.

Any other conclusions to be drawn from this data?

It's not that covid in Iceland is no big deal, it's that the difference between Iceland and the uk is so great, on so many levels. Population density and testing capacity being the significant factors here.

A teacher friend of mine died last week ahead 35. Probably caught it at school. Just because they're focused on deaths of NHS workers doesn't mean that the deaths of other key workers aren't happening

While Iceland has a relatively low death rate, their case per million ratio is really very high. Of course, they have also done much more testing per capita than, well, pretty much anywhere - which I suppose makes their population ideally suited to a study of this type. It also may mean that they have simply identified a much higher proportion of existing cases than other countries, so their "cases per million" is not as inflated as it looks at first glance.

She thinks I am wrong - I don't have any data to argue either way

Some figures from 2018:
87% of children aged 1-5 attend preschool.
97% of children aged 3-5.
95% of children aged 2.
47% of children aged 1.

Do you think that's in any way comparable to the UK? I don't have the data from the UK but having some knowledge of the culture I doubt it.

Of course it isn't. Teachers (myself included) are able to provide useful anecdotes of the realities of social distancing in a school.

Iceland's entire population is roughly the same as the population of Cardiff.

Over 650 thousand children per year are born in the UK (the entire population of Iceland is 364 thousand adults and children in total). Around 4 thousand babies are born per year in Iceland.

The average primary school class size in Iceland is 18 children. In England it's 27. Icelandic state schools have the highest teacher: pupil ratio in the world.

The average secondary school in the UK has about 950 pupils, the biggest has 3600. The biggest school in the whole of Iceland has 800 children and over 1/3 have under 100 children.

What's possible in such a tiny remote population is not possible in the UK or indeed in most countries, as others say.

Puffin on the basis that you appear to be Icelandic, would you mind telling us something about your schools? I have just read that 80% of children aged 1-6 attend pre school, and that 50% of schools have less than 100 pupils.

It has made me think that there are probably many very small schools in fairly remote areas - but that schools in urban areas are probably very different to those. How big are Iceland schools and nurseries? Do you have class size limits? How much room is there is the classrooms? Are children mostly indoors (I imagine it is cold most of the time?) or, like Scandinavian countries, is there an emphasis on getting outside (well wrapped up)?

The thing with anecdotes is, because no one is being tested, that's all we have. It won't take many kids or indeed school staff getting this to ramp up hospital admissions. Its very infectious. Schools are as open as they can be. They will fully open as soon as they can. Teachers are desperate to get back, we aren't the decision makers in this. HCP deserve all of us working together to make their job as doable as is possible. None of this is ideal but honestly opening schools at this point could be disastrous for the nhs.

Cross posted, Puffin. I will have a look for the UK figures.

Oh dear. It has taken me until oakmaiden criticising puffinshop to realise we're talking about Iceland not Finland. I have literally read this whole thread as Finland.
This is how tired I am!

Oakmaiden- puffin does know about Iceland.

There is no way we can compare UK to Iceland in population matters. That's not "apples and pears" that's apples and narwhals.

Wow, clearly some people here come from the Priti Patel school of empathy - decisions can’t be made on anecdotal evidence but this also isn’t just a numbers game of faceless individuals. This is actual people’s lives. We need much more of a handle on this before taking further (unknown) risk.

The SAGE model is for 16 weeks based on children being as likely as adults to spread the virus...

Exactly - it is based on Neil Ferguson's assumption which can be challenged. If you assume children do not spread virus as much as adults do, the model output becomes questionable.

We can't prove that children don't transmit the virus as easily because they aren't being tested. Scientists believe that many children are asymptotic which still poses a threat to adults.

The link I have provided covers research from (1) China, (2) South Korea, (3) Iceland and (4) Norway. All the four countries did and do test children. All the studies appear to point to the same conclusion - "infected children do not represent a major vector for COVID-19 transmission".

Well no, because right now the idea is stopping household to household transmission. As soon as schools go back (where you cannot practice social distancing) that aim stops. Social distancing stops. Families all mixing together in the playground, school children crammed in classes of thirty, staff that work in schools. The expectation from employers that if schools are back, you need to be back. Also remember they closed schools very quickly after social distancing restrictions came in, within days. You cannot expect people to not go out, not visit friends and family or socialise outside of the home when schools are open. It defeats the whole purpose. Schools will open when social distancing stops, they go hand in hand.

There is an agenda by the press to ‘get schools back’ whilst quoting other countries. No other country is opening schools, Denmark’s model will be similar to ours as it stands. Very limited schooling which isn’t really schooling because the whole class is virtually working online. Also Italy and Spain who we are on track to overtake, are not opening schools anytime soon.

I hope schools go back for half term and my children certainly need it being year 10 and 12. However all this talk when we are beating Italy in the death figures and all the warnings that we have a lot worse to come, well it’s frankly crazy.

Iceland only has a population of approx 388,000.

It has taken me until oakmaiden criticising puffinshop

I wasn't criticising? I said she had corrected me, and that I had no data to refute her correction.

I for one can't wait for schools to reopen and will be sending dc back as soon as they do. Fingers crossed for May.
Let's all start to get back on with life

Anyway, perhaps our situation is different from the UK in many ways (though the very low population density for the country as a whole isn't representative because 90% of us live in the same place), but I'm glad that our schools are still partially open.

Note that there are some restrictions here. My children both attend preschool and they are able to go every other day at this stage. This allows for smaller groups. There is also no mixing between classes, as there usually would be, no whole school activities or assemblies. Parents are not allowed into the actual school, we have to stay in the cloakroom and only a few parents allowed in at once. All clothing is taken home every day and we can only bring what they need for that day (usually we bring everything on Monday and take it home on Friday) so that the building can be disinfected every day.

There are also fairly high numbers of parents who are keeping their children home by choice - one of the first things the government did was to make compulsory schools temporarily non-compulsory. Preschool is always non-compulsory of course. My daughter's group at school should be 8 children but only she and one other child have been actually turning up. My son's group has better attendance. There were certainly high emotions here surrounding the issue of whether to close schools entirely and lots of criticism that this was not done. I think it is subsiding a bit now that people see that it was not necessary and the spread of the virus is being very well controlled without it.

One of the support staff at the secondary I work at died of CV 2 weeks after we closed. I am in no rush to return if it means putting mine and my childrens health at risk. We had 3 confirmed cases but were not allowed to close and only finally closed when all schools did. Her life could literally have been saved if we had closed earlier.

But Puffin seems to think I have based that on erroneous data

Sorry, criticise is probably too strong, I'm tired.

DH is an NHS doctor who takes public transport to work. It's an absolute saving grace that there is no rush hour, or packed transport right now.

There will also be parents who will send their children in ill, because they don't think the rules apply to them. All the loophole searching on MN proves that people can't be trusted to think of others wellbeing before their own selfish wants.

The link I have provided covers research from (1) China, (2) South Korea, (3) Iceland and (4) Norway. All the four countries did and do test children. All the studies appear to point to the same conclusion - "infected children do not represent a major vector for COVID-19 transmission".

Is this in under 10s or over 10s or both?

I wonder what counts as a child, if for some reason children are less likely to be vectors (which would be weird as they are vectors for most viruses.

A 6 ft tall 15 year old who needs to shave to avoid a patchy whispy beard is a child, so is a 1 year old, but they have nothing in common physically...

Schools opening would be the end of social distancing.

This.

The idea of sending children and adults into schools, along with pick ups/drops offs, teachers/TAs of various ages etc whilst at the same time enforcing the 'social distancing' we currently have everywhere else is ludicrous.

I think after May half term would be a possible good date, or until the 12 week shielding is up (beginning of June I think?)

infected children do not represent a major vector for COVID-19 transmission

What does major mean?

That they aren’t ‘super’ spreaders or that they transmit it at the same rate as anyone else.

I don't have a child in compulsory school (ages 6-16) but most of those schools are doing something similar - i.e. classes split in two and children can go every other day or in a morning/afternoon split. No mixing between classes, daily disinfecting, etc. They have to arrange things so that there are no more than 20 people inside a classroom as we currently have a ban on gatherings of more than 20.