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Given Iceland's data surely schools should go back.

292 replies

Floatyboat · 15/04/2020 08:35

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?query=featured_coronavirus

It appears that kids either don't get it much or their immune system stamps it out so quick the chance of transmission is very low. Iceland has been able to keep schools open and still gets these figures for under 10's.

Clearly some caution/graded opening may be sensible but to continue with the current status quo and all the associated harm is not justified.

Any other conclusions to be drawn from this data?

OP posts:
Floatyboat · 15/04/2020 09:50

@refraction

Can you share those studies? That would help the discussion move forward.

OP posts:
EachDubh · 15/04/2020 09:50

To replicate Icelandic schoolingbwill cost an incredible amount. We have known for years that smaller class sizes support our learners better but yet we increase class sizes due to cost and available buildings.
Also the Icelandic people have been fairly happy to follow social diatancing measure which we in the uk have shown we are not happy to or are incapable of. So many things have to changem

wintertravel1980 · 15/04/2020 09:51

But the children can spread the virus!

To a much, much lesser extent than adults. The link I have included earlier provides overview of the current research beyond the Icelandic study.

As of now, there are limited documented cases of likely spread of disease from children. Most of them appear to involve teenagers rather than younger children.

refraction · 15/04/2020 09:51

the evidence surrounding the effectiveness of closing schools seems inconclusive,

Social distancing of which school closure plays a major part is not inconclusive.

FredaFrogspawn · 15/04/2020 09:53

I’m not sure why that was aimed at me Floatyboat.

I’m saying we can’t stay closed for much longer.

Floatyboat · 15/04/2020 09:53

@toomuchlikemyusername

Because adults in Iceland are also low density and they do get the virus. Note most Icelandic people live in the capital so not actually that low density.

Specific characteristics of Icelandic schools may be relevant though as others have highlighted.

OP posts:
wintertravel1980 · 15/04/2020 09:55

Clearly not true. Read the SAGE studies and many others.

SAGE discussions have been based on the Imperial College (Neil Ferguson's) report which includes one underlying non-tested assumption:

We predict that school and university closure will have an impact on the epidemic, under the assumption that children do transmit as much as adults, even if they rarely experience severe disease.

If you take this hypothesis for granted, then closing schools along with other measures makes perfect sense. However, the most recent research makes this assumption questionable.

Equimum · 15/04/2020 09:57

In the week before schools were officially closed, several near to us had to close because of teachers/ staff having symptoms. If staff were still isolating when anyone in their family had symptoms (to protect other adults at the school), schools would be constantly opening and closing which would surely be more disruptive for everyone.

wonderstuff · 15/04/2020 09:58

I spent the first week of lockdown in bed, I'm still not 100%, I'm a fit healthy 40 year old, I'm sure I'm not the only teacher who has had suspected covid from school. Thankfully I didn't see my mother while I was infectious. My boss at work is in the shielding group and thankfully she was off work with a different illness, because this virus could kill her.
Lower the infection rate and increase testing then open schools.

Appuskidu · 15/04/2020 09:59

Iceland? A country with 1720 cases and 8 deaths?

I’m sure if we copy them, the results with be just the same?!

Anyway-congratulations on making another ‘I want the schools to go back’ post. We needed a few more.

Possible sensible ideas. Can parents not just queue to drop their kids off like they queue to go to Tesco

Sensible idea?

This is why the schools reopening must be planned properly and be advised by people who actually run and work in schools. If you did, you would know what this would end up looking like in most schools.

refraction · 15/04/2020 09:59

@refraction

Can you share those studies? That would help the discussion move forward.

Heres one. I think we can all agree that social distancing works and school closures is an important part of that.

post.parliament.uk/analysis/covid-19-school-closures-and-mass-gatherings/

edwinbear · 15/04/2020 09:59

DC's school has a maximum of 20 per class, in fact many have less than 20, lots of indoor and outside space to spread out in. Some schools may have more than 30 per class and be cramped into small spaces, but not all schools are like that. Small village schools and private schools for example, it's not correct to assume that all schools are unable to reopen safely.

Appuskidu · 15/04/2020 10:01

It was Viner, I think, who write the article saying that schools closing as a SOLE measure was ineffective at reducing transmission.

Prof Neil Ferguson has been quite clear that closing the schools as part of the government program has been v effective at reducing transmission as it severs the spread between households.

Chanel05 · 15/04/2020 10:02

What about school staff? How will they be protected? Large gatherings of parents at the gates? Remember, schools have only been officially closed for two weeks - we are in the Easter holidays, this was a scheduled break and does not count towards Corona enforced closures. I wouldn't bother getting your hopes up until at least June when the vulnerable group have finished the 12 weeks of distancing.

Appuskidu · 15/04/2020 10:03

DC's school has a maximum of 20 per class, in fact many have less than 20

That’s great-but in 23 years of teaching, I have never taught in a school with such ratios. They may exist, yes-but there are many many more of us who teach classes of 30.

SleepingStandingUp · 15/04/2020 10:05

Can parents not just queue to drop their kids off like they queue to go to Tesco.
Our school potentially has minimim 150 parents minimum - small school, lots of siblings. That's 300 metres of queue in the middle of an estate. You could get parents in one gate, walk round school and out net gate, walk on other side of the road but with people pulling up in cars then making their way to the end of the queue that stretches out into the estate that would highly impractical. And that's a SMALL school. Most primaries round here are twice the size.

So 2 minutes a drop off is 300 minutes , same for pick up. It's gonna be a long day. To speed it up you'd have to have all the kids iterally waiting to be collected from say 3 pm until their parent at the back of the queue gets there.

Kids eat packed lunch in the classroom. except lots of kids get free school lunches and still receive some sort of help atm cos parents don't have the money to provide a lunch every day. Not great but a reality so someone still has to provide food. Teachers could do this but they'd need access to shopping deliveries, money for the food and paying for their Time.

They have staggered break times. lots of schools do this, but in order to fully clean down the dining hall between groups lunch would start and finish quite expremely.
We have 7 classes to get through lunch in a small hall. Even at 20 minutes thats over 2 hours

Could do half classes a-l one week m-z the next. so will I be paid full wages for the week I'm back home with the kids? Or a semi furlough? * job share so half wages topped up with tax credits? Not a huge issue here as lots of families have a least 1 parent out of work / sah as its a poor area but it isn't resolving the "get everyone back to work" issue.

When schools go back, social distancing WILL end..

Mazarinegreen · 15/04/2020 10:05

Why not open secondary schools first and primary schools later when safe - very few parents drop off at secondary (my DC would cringe if I turned up with them!) so at least that concern about social distancing of adults at the school gates would be managed. Y10 and 12 could go back first as they are most likely to be impacted by long periods off pre GCSE and a level year?

motherrunner · 15/04/2020 10:06

DC's school has a maximum of 20 per class, in fact many have less than 20

I’ve been teaching 20 years (4 different high schools) and have never taught a KS3 or 4 class below 28 pupils. My own primary school aged children are in a class over 32. I don’t think this in unique for city schools.

refraction · 15/04/2020 10:06

Closing pubs alone probably would not have much effect.

Closing Cinemas alone wouldn't have much effect.

Closing slimming clubs alone....

Closing clothes shops alone....

Surely you can see its a cumulative approach to all.

toomuchlikemyusername · 15/04/2020 10:07

Iceland's capital has 450 people per sq km, compared to approx 4700 in Manchester and up to 20000 in some London areas. So yes, they do have areas of higher density, but it's not at all comparable to the UK.

Having spent time in Iceland, I can see how, as a population in general, they would be more attuned to accepting and following social distancing rules and other protocols. They are extremely respectful of others (for example, if you wish to cross a road, simply standing on the edge of the pavement means that cars will willingly stop to let you cross - no zebra crossing, nothing. Imagine that here!) Here in the UK we still see people flaunting social distancing rules with their 'I'm alright Jack' attitudes.
Comparing Iceland and the UK is, sadly, like comparing apples and pears.

Fortyfifty · 15/04/2020 10:07

The issue is complex. There seems to be a lot of evidence mounting that children are not the superspreaders they were thought to be. They're not harbouring it and not passing it on to adults.

However, cwhat is the cut off age for children? Do 17 year olds act like 20 year olds or 12 year olds to the virus? Is our country too cramped in many areas to allow massive groups of children and inevitably adults, without contravening social distancing? Is our culture very different from others, where primary school children manage to leave their hone and take themselves to school on foot?

I desperately want my Year 12 back at college. I feel this will be detrimental to her A levels if it carries on too long but I think she can also cope with remote teaching for another half term until there's more certainty about transmission and routine testing is in place for staff.

If staff are vulnerable and are shielding, perhaps they're in a better position to provide decent cover lessons either live over conferencing or pre prepared sludes/video than if teachers are off school when they're actually ill. Only for secondary though and where there's enough staff to still supervise the classroom.

Haskell · 15/04/2020 10:09

Plus @FredaFrogspawn the problem of wrong sized chairs and tables, and lavatories, inappropriate books, no play equipment, classrooms set up for serious lecture-style teaching not free flow with group tables etc.

Our classrooms are so small, you could not have more than six pupils in each to allow the 2m distancing, maybe nine at a pinch.

There's nowhere to feed those children either as the canteen is too small for distancing.

We're lucky- we have a field- but many inner city schools have barely any outdoor space at all.

As a previous poster highlighted it's not academics I'm worried about- it's the decline in fitness levels of my children, confined to a small flat with just one walk a day (both DH and I are WFH full time since lockdown- we have no time to take the children for lovely long walks that so many seem to be enjoying).

I am desperately worried for some of our pupils who need to be in school.

Floatyboat · 15/04/2020 10:09

That is modelling based on influenza. I'm looking for evidence of high transmission in schools.

OP posts:
Oakmaiden · 15/04/2020 10:12

An important fact to note about that study is that whilst infections in under 10s were low (6.7%), in over 10s they were higher than in the general population (13.7% for over 10s, vs 13.3% for the general population).

That would mean children in years 5-13 are at as much risk as adults of carrying and spreading CV19. Reception and nursery children are at lower risk - about half the risk - but will still carry and transmit it.

It must also be considered that in Iceland children don't start school until they are 6 - while in the UK they attend from 4, and sometimes younger. If schools are significant places where the virus is passed on, then fewer Icelandic children (under 10) are exposed to that environment than UK children. If a child does not attend childcare the most likely place for them to pick up the virus would be from a parent - it thus makes sense that small children, at this early stage in the virus lifecycle, are less likely to have caught it than are the adults they live with.

Additionally, it is unlikely that a 9 year old's chance of catching CV is actually vastly different from an 11 year old - it is likely to be a sliding scale, with babies the least likely and 9 year olds almost as likely to catch it as 10/11 year olds. And it looks like 11 year olds have much the same chance as the general population. So the safest people are probably those who, certainly in Iceland, are too young to go to school.

Bascially, what this study tells me is that it is certainly not safe for those over the age of 10 to be attending school currently, from an infection point of view, and that whilst younger school aged children are safer, they are still at risk of infection and passing the infection on.

FredaFrogspawn · 15/04/2020 10:13

Haskell I understand what you’re saying about the practical issues of teaching primary students in secondary schools. But maybe Yrs 4-6? TBles can be moved. Equipment can be ferried between schools - they have built whole hospitals out of warehouse type accommodation.

But I am not doing any more than tentatively making suggestions about how things might work.

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