Given Iceland's data surely schools should go back.

[Floatyboat]

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?query=featured_coronavirus

It appears that kids either don't get it much or their immune system stamps it out so quick the chance of transmission is very low. Iceland has been able to keep schools open and still gets these figures for under 10's.

Clearly some caution/graded opening may be sensible but to continue with the current status quo and all the associated harm is not justified.

Any other conclusions to be drawn from this data?

Iceland were testing and contact tracing early on.

We still don't have enough tests for NHS workers let alone anyone else.

Until we have that then schools cannot go back.

Is there good quality evidence of high transmission of covid19 within primary schools or nurseries?

No, all the studies available so far seem to indicate that children (and, in particular, children under 10) do not "represent a major vector in COVID-19 transmission".

www.fhi.no/globalassets/dokumenterfiler/rapporter/2020/the-role-of-children-in-the-transmission-of-sars-cov-2-report-2020.pdf

The problem is the question of keeping schools opened/closed is highly emotional. A lot of parents and teachers do not have time or desire to read actual research and act on their instincts and experience. Closing down schools is highly effective for curtailing spread of seasonal flu so people just assume we should follow the same approach with COVID. It will be very hard to change this belief.

Of course, there is also another equally important consideration - open schools appear to bring adults (parents/teachers) together and hinder social distancing. The whole process of pick ups and drop offs may have to be changed before we are able to open schools safely.

But what about all the parents and school staff? I'm pretty sure I picked it up at school, from a pupil. We have 1200 at my school and 150 staff, that's a lot of families!
Schools should open as soon as we get adequate testing and contact tracing in place.

Exactly it's increasingly apparent arguments to keep schools closed are hysteria driven with post hoc rationalisation.

Possible sensible ideas. Can parents not just queue to drop their kids off like they queue to go to Tesco. Kids eat packed lunch in the classroom. They have staggered break times. Could do half classes a-l one week m-z the next.

at the idea that teachers or unions will have any say about reopening schools. We'll do what we're told by government. Can you imagine any profession even discussing industrial action at the moment?
Not to mention the fact that schools are in fact open at the moment for key workers children.

Why are so many keen to get their children back to school??

I want mine to go back to school because; they are bored to tears and feel socially isolated, I need to work, I am still paying extortionate school fees, the evidence surrounding the effectiveness of closing schools seems inconclusive, I am concerned at the implication on their education of missing a full term of school, they are losing previous excellent levels of fitness without the c.15 hrs a week of sport they do, I am not a teacher, my ability to home school is limited (especially given I am wfh), trying to ensure 2 x DC attend both sets of online lessons whilst I'm on back to back conference calls is virtually impossible.

Our problem is that social distancing can't be done with classroom sizes of 30.

If children are not major transmission vectors (which seems to be the conclusion from the current research), we only need to focus on social distancing among adults (parents/teachers). There is no apparent scientific basis for enforcing it with children.

Iceland isn’t comparable because it had an excellent pandemic plan, thus launched a major testing initiative and tracing procedure, along with an aggressive quarantine policy. Most countries haven’t done that.

Why don’t as many children under 10 test positive? And what children under 10 exist without contact with more vulnerable adults?

I don’t see anything there that suggests U.K. schools should re-open now. I do see a lot that suggests we should test more, trace more, etc.

@sakura06 is that relevant to the point about children and their risks relative to adults. All the data in the study is based on Iceland so the same macro measures applied.

In the U.K. 8 children 0-19 age group have died, some may have had underlying issues, so the risk is minuscule. The deaths from meningitis are probably higher.

Schools seem to be the least dangerous areas.

At some point life will have to restart and risk assessment needs to be done carefully to look at the implications of schools reopening.

Some businesses will need to restart slowly with a phased return. However hard it is to stomach, the country and the world need to restart slowly as a vaccine is a long way off.

A problem with our school is there’s one main path and it’s very busy - there are 2 schools on one site. Walking to and from school will make social distancing impossible. Hundreds of pupils from both schools plus hundreds of parents on the same enclosed (by trees) path. I’m sure lots of schools will have the same problem. And no, not all of us can drive our kids to school. The kids might be OK but many parents won’t be. They’ll spread it even if they try not to get too close.

The paper states , as do further accounts, journals etc that the size and relative spread of the Icelandic population do have an impact.
In Iceland schools have on average class sizes of less than 20. We have, on average greater than 30. Mire than 50% of icelandic schools are rural with less than 100 pupils. A very different school system than the uk. Iceland have made it law that under 6, children must have 6/7m2/child of space indoors plus outdoor space in which to play. All of this allows a certain amount of social distancing naturally.
The uk has cramped schools often with little of no fresh air, large, overcrowded classes, people travelling on public transport that is overcrowded just to get to school. All Icelandic chikdren have a right to a place at their local school.
Also more recent reports suggest that more children are now nring infected in Iceland, perhaps the 0 infections during this study were better social distancing, tracking those who test positive and a much smaller population?
You cannot use a study like this to claim children don't spread or catch a virus without looking at the environment they are in. Another conclusion from this report is women are far less likely to be infected or as seriously and that gatherings of up to 20 within a small, often rural population do not impact significantly on the spread of the virus nor does the opening of small coffee shops.
So we can shield males, send women out to the front line keep cofee shops open and run with class sizes if 20 and schools where maximum size is 1200 and 50% have less than 100 pupils. Tjis will reduce the spread and severity.

@BreatheAndFocus why don't as many under 10's test positive? Presumably because biology happens and young immune systems hit the virus hard so there is little left and it cant be found in their throats. Making them therefore less risky. Surely this is directly relevant to the UK?

I doubt Iceland's data is very relevant to ours, I doubt their school models or population density reflect ours

Maybe they could open primary and secondary schools to educate primary students in much smaller, socially isolating groups. But that still leaves the issues of site staff needed in to maintain cleanliness and safety, and children being taught by teachers who aren’t specialists in their age group.

But the children can spread the virus! Doesn't matter about keeping the parents separate if little Johnny comes home and gives it to everyone.
Iceland has a really good testing and isolating program, we don't.

We can’t go on like this for years though. We need to find some sort of exit strategy.

Good points. Perhaps try to replicate some aspects of Icelandic schooling in the initial reopening as a precaution?

This is a genuine question - how is the density of the population not relevant? Iceland's population density is approx 3 people per square kilometre and the UK's is approx 274.
Overall population of Iceland is approx 375000 people compared to 66 million in the UK.

As I say, a genuine question.

From a personal perspective, working in a UK school, I can see that staff would be put at undue risk with a too early return as well as schools simply being unable to operate any degree of social distancing effectively. Having seen how difficult it is to socially distance 25 pupils (in school over the lockdown period) trying to do this for 800+ would be nigh on impossible.
There are also a lot of staff isolating for long term health conditions which would have an immediate impact on ratios.

Queuing up to drop children off - how long will this take in a school of 800 pupils? An impossibly long time! School would need to open at 7am to get everyone in via an orderly queue.

Staggered breaks - supervised by who? Schools will be already low on staff.

Staggered weeks - so parents will be in work one week, off work the next? Teachers will be double teaching the lessons.

I think the time to fully open schools is when they can open safely for all, staff included.

Aside from the issues of protecting teachers, vulnerable parents etc, opening schools is the end of lockdown/social distancing. If you tell people it is safe to take and collect children from school, they will not listen when you tell them to still social distance at supermarkets, shopping centres, etc. It will give a false sense of security!

There has never been much evidence for closing schools - they were closed due to political pressure not science.

Clearly not true. Read the SAGE studies and many others.

The whole idea is bonkers while also trying to keep social distancing measures!

But we also need to remember that many children are not safe at home. We don’t always know which ones these children are at any one time.

Freda adults work in lots of industries with precautions. Given children aren't particularly risky we can feel reassured education is not a special case.

This won't go on for years, we need two things to happen, we need a significant reduction in the rate of infection and we need to have enough testing capacity to effectively test and then isolate and contact trace every case of covid. This is what Korea is doing and they've not had to lock down at all. Iceland quickly increased its testing capacity at the start of this crisis, so it has got good data. We don't have capacity to even test nhs workers at the moment.
All these threads pushing for schools to open, hardly any one mentioning testing.