Will schools be closed until 2022?

[JillAndJack1]

Sorry, another schools thread.
I’ve just looked at the guardian, it says social distancing may need to be maintained until 2022, if this happens then surely schools will be closed until then? When schools go back social distancing will end. Obviously nobody actually knows, but curious to hear people’s thoughts.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-distancing-continue-until-2022-lockdown-pandemic

"government are angling to reopen schools in mid-May, early June at the absolute latest. "

So when will the schools be shut again after that -- for the 2nd and 3rd & 4th and 5th & 6th... waves.

Govt has no containment strategy that doesn't involve schools being closed most of the time for most of next 1.5-2 years.

we also cant just follow germany's lead as
We have or did have 1/4 of the beds

The number of ICU beds isn’t really a determining factor.’ We’ve now scaled up and have the Nightingale hospitals which provide significant capacity, but it wouldn’t matter if we had 1,000,000 ICU beds, the fact is, a very large proportion of those in ICU don’t come out alive, whatever the country. Ventilators aren’t magic.

I'm in Scotland so different term dates - we break at end of June. It could be that if they did a school reopening Mid May (which is earlier than was ever suggested but does seem to be increasing being suggested in the press) then they wouldn't need to do as severe a second lockdown as the second one would land during the summer school break. So they'd get a partial reduction in spread for free.

On/off lockdowns are going to be very difficult for businesses to cope with, especially those which either require advance booking (who's going to buy expensive theatre tickets or a non refundable hotel room if a future shutdown is likely) or who have lots of perishable supplies. It's better than total lockdown for a long time, but still very difficult.

Businesses cannot stay closed for a year or more without the country pretty much falling apart - huge civil unrest and so on.

The gov can say what it wants but it doesnt mean the teachers union will agree to go back or that up to 1/4 students might not be off.
It is going to be incredibly distruptive to the kids to go in for about 4w at a time.
Once people realise there will be a second wave that soon many will choose not to send them as the last 4w resulted in 10k deaths at least and 80k infected in hospitals and a few million getting it with many with pneumonia at home.
But realistically if we only get 10% say immunity for each wave it's not going to be much safer even in September- up to 30% having had it.

Everyone says the Nightingales are not full up & we're starting to look past peak bed demand. I'm not sure if a single hospital got full up in ICU. All that capacity, all those cancelled procedures, all that planning, gone to waste.

Would it make sense to lift the restrictions now for 2 weeks and then shut down again. I mean the schoolkids are screwed, but at least I could get my car repaired & folk could take stuff to the tip or get a haircut.

So at least there would be a point to all this.

If you wait longer to reopen, then you will get a longer period out of lockdown. Difficult balance though

I can read between the lines. The government wants us to all get sick of this and then feel the economic pinch. We will then be “okay” with loosening things, letting lots of people get it and having the nightingale at capacity.. because at least we’re not locked down anymore. This lockdown is just a way to get us to be okay with an “old people” disaster we can just deliberately ignore..

Surely most 70+ though are just going to be stuck inside for a year as muck as possible. I wouldnt come out even if they release lockdown.
It's the people in care homes that are the issue and the virus will continue to spread there despite lockdowns.

Although they wont be included in the 10k.
It's the younger ones at higher risk who cant stay home as working or have kids so exposed anyway.

There will be no economy to 'save'. It's over. Save lives instead. Then, rebuild.

There will be no economy to 'save'. It's over. Save lives instead

What about the lives lost from the collapse of the economy?

There will be no economy to 'save'. It's over. Save lives instead

f there’s no economy then there’s no NHS. How can you save lives with no health service? How do you think the NHS is funded?!- from our taxes.
If the economy goes completely then the NHS goes completely as do other public services such as fire, police, etc
It would be a total breakdown of society. A scenario like this would make covid seem like a walk in the park in comparison

The economy isn't some abstract rich man's concept, it's the jobs, income and security of every single person in the country. There is of course an economy to save - maybe a smaller one, maybe a different one, but still an economy. Even if you're bartering your home grown carrots for your neighbours eggs it's part of an economy.

You can't save lives with no money, a collapsed healthcare system, mass civil unrest and starvation.

It might be time to consider a resource based economy. That would mean no money. Shocking as that seems.

@haplap how would that work? How would it work when it comes to housing etc

Correct me if I'm wrong but the main difference between resource based economy and communism is basically about how you go about achieving it - the former is supposed to be achieved through prototyping, gradual change, creating an abundance of resources, etc.

Without even pulling the threads of how resource based economy goes against pretty much all human experience and nature, it is completely unfeasible to beging implementing an enormous societal, structural change like this would require in the midst of a crisis.

The world is unlikely to evolve to a resource based economy without huge disruption, but this appears to be exactly what we have with this pandemic. Adapt or die, as nature dictates.

It would require civil war - nothing less.