Will schools be closed until 2022?

[JillAndJack1]

Sorry, another schools thread.
I’ve just looked at the guardian, it says social distancing may need to be maintained until 2022, if this happens then surely schools will be closed until then? When schools go back social distancing will end. Obviously nobody actually knows, but curious to hear people’s thoughts.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-distancing-continue-until-2022-lockdown-pandemic

I don't think there's any real suggestion that young children will practice social distancing.

Ridiculous to think schools will try and enforce 2m social distancing.... Even if they could do it in the classroom, which they won’t be able to unless they have double shifts, how will they manage at playtime, lunchtime and pick-up and drop-off. We’ll need to learn to live with it and accept the risk that comes with it, just like people have done with illnesses for 100s and 1000s of years. Particularly vulnerable children may need to be educated separately, but given the fatality rate is very low indeed, I don’t think this will need to impact many children.

I don't think they'll try to enforce it either. I think they'll try to reduce contact between classes, reduce/cancel big gatherings (assemblies, sports days etc), probably stagger breaks and lunches to reduce contact, possibly health checks (temp) and sending home any kids who seem even slightly unwell. The goal won't be stopping spread, just slowing it down.

Yes I agree @Statisticallychallenged I also think they will start sending back in Primary from the top down - years 4, 5 and 6 for example at the beginning

@nokidding are you really suggesting we stay in lockdown until this is over because that wont happen. Schools going back will happen at a time when lots of other stuff goes back and business start reopening

Ideally tonslow spread
Test kids for antibodies before allowing back

Remove attendance fines so parents can keep home if they or child is vulnerable/wfh

Maybe only send back ks2 upwards.
And actually early ks2 they can work well online.

Masks. Gov are lying they may not work perfectly but are better than nothing. Fabric ones were used in 1918...
If everyone wfh kept them off we could have up to 50% of kids off. Plus the ones who are unemployed/bar staff/restaurants etc.
With no ks1 that frees up half the classrooms. And teachers. And cuts in half the families exposed in primary. (Though obv siblings etc).
You would have the tas too.

Keeping the youngest home is the least workable for parents though - I can manage to work around my nearly 10 year old, but trying to work around a 4/5 year old is very different.

it would be useful to know how many are immune but I am not sure if tests are out yet and that would reward rule breakers and punish those who hid away so as not to catch it so should be pretty unfair - that that rate we will go back to 1960s chickenpox parties where you tried to get your very young child to get it then rather than when older when it is worse.

And I agree re masks - I fully intend to make some for our family. If they are made well with filters then there's evidence they can reduce spread. Are they good enough for someone who is expected to go and deal with covid 19 patients, no. But could they at least work to reduce the r0? I believe they could. Not eliminate it, but reduce.

Yes that German link is completely different to just getting schools back
Masks and 15 pupils. And only upper primary. (They propose keeping childcare close ) or course they start school years later anyway.

Plus app monitoring

As uk do not 'believe' in masks.

Though i do wonder about eating... Have to remove masks and many kids eating with their hands...
I dont think our numbers will drop anywhere near as much as we havent traced anyone. Abd people are continuing to be infected at work and supermarkets.

Test kids for antibodies before allowing back

And punish those of us who are doing everything we can to slow the spread?

Also realistically how much would 0-6yo actually be at school/preschool if they have to be off for 2w after a cold/fever maybe until a cough is gone. They also cant say thry have a sore throat.

I get hayfever and lots of colds (ive had a fever 1day then 7days of cough in a separate incidence just in the last 4w.)

Do they mean just surgical masks? As ideally you need goggles too for any sneezing.
Also before lockdown schools were NOT informing parents of confirmed cases so you couldnt even remove if you wanted.
If the amount of virus you get initially matters then a roomful of shedding kids will be a large inital dose which could affect the adults and kids worse (why drs and nurses get so ill maybe)

Yes and no re shedding kids as whilst initial dose does matter kids seem to be far less effected so they don't cough nearly as much. They will still emit droplets, but significantly fewer than most infected adults

My 5 year old would be there a lot.

He's typically not poorly. He's not had a cold all winter.

Now when he was 2 a completely different story. His ability to always be ill then means he is rarely ill now.

And that doesn't mean I am sending him to school when i shouldn't!

And re masks, there's the element of my mask protects you - they stop infected individuals droplets getting out from the infected person

Test kids for antibodies before allowing back

.... and create massive perverse incentives for parents to “allow” their child to get CV.

Schools will definitely not open until 2023. We’ll never fly again and we’ll all probably have to eat our pets due to a lack of food, which is shit because all my family own is a hamster. It’s the apocalypse after all.

Now I’m going to get back to wringing my hands and shouting ‘won’t someone think of the children’ in the street.

They’ve already said the economy would collapse if people don’t go back by June and it will already be ok a dire state by then and want to do everything they can to bring that forward if possible

They won’t continue to pay people 80%, the UC increase will drop back down again and mortgage holidays would no longer apply.

Anyone renting who already can’t get a reduction is struggling

We all know schools won't close until 2023.

I think we all know we will either be asked to go back sometime in June or July and will be expected to be back to 'normal' in Sept.

I love the fact that the teacher bashers are out in force once again. If any armchair teacher has a problem with staff being paid whilst still opening for key workers and still working from home or they have a problem with our current pension scheme, why not join us?

They are always on the lookout for teachers and then you too can have the same pension and pay benefits...

To enforce social distancing in most schools you'd need one adult per two children, physically keeping them apart (which in itself would involve breaking social distancing rules and probably safeguarding rules too).

I'm sorry but I would much rather take my chances with the virus than remain locked down for 2 years (wouldn't happen anyway) and I expect a large number of people probably feel the same.

Frankly, I'd rather take my chances with the virus than endure another 2 months in lockdown, let alone 2 years.

I’m not sure how the economy can survive with rolling lockdowns as well though? Surely they are sustainable either? Businesses won’t be able to to stay afloat with the uncertainty of it?

we also cant just follow germany's lead as
We have or did have 1/4 of the beds
We cant just announce the other eu countries are going back to school but ignore that they are SD with fewer kids and other factors.

Maybe they should instead reopen parks so kids can socialise and parents that are concerned/vulnerable/shielding wont take them.
Increasing herd in children doesnt have to be at school where it risks all parents and the teachers.

I think anyway if this is going to last a year etc we need to look at hand wash facilies in more locations.
Ive seen ones at zoos not sure if they store the water etc or plumbed but would think you could have rainwater ?

Ok so follow germany.
Have 75% ? More deaths.
Ignore exactly how they are doing it.
It rather explains why so many more uk citizens have aleady died.
It's not rocket science why we have so many dying.

We know better than they did 100years ago that masks helped? Better than every other country in the world?
And yet strangely we have many severely ill bus drivers/dead teachers/nurses/drs.

Tbh i hope lots of people sue the gov. None of this was unexpected. They had more of an idea how much spread in the community there was before they did lockdown. They could see how bad it would be. Italy were directly telling other countries.
And again when lockdown is released instead of putting safety first it is - economy.
I think that germany article was saying they dont want people to catch it (unlike here).
I think it would be preferable to have the next peak later so we can actually sort out masks and ppe and ventilators to at least try to avoid it being the vulnerable people getting it. Otherwise you are expecting them to take a 6-10% risk of death this year. When certainly most people's odds are not that and most of these people could have lived decades.
It's not like these 40-68yo will be very economically active either dead or after spending months recovering from icu.
I dont think BJ nearly died but it was enough to end up in hospital on oxygen and they havent gone on about him having 'underlying conditions'

It should be obvious from reading the press that the government are angling to reopen schools in mid-May, early June at the absolute latest. To think or posture otherwise is ridiculous. Children need educating and our economy needs to get back on its feet as soon as possible.