Have we hit peak yet?

[Rosalie49]

^just that.

No chance still no idea how many people really have it or how many have really died.

The rate of new cases appears to be stabilising/flattening, so hopefully they will start to go down soon. Hospitalisations and deaths will follow a week or 2 after new cases.

No. They warned in the recent govt briefing it will still get worse before it gets better.

I think we're close. Rate of new infections seems to be flattening out. The death toll will keep increasing over the next few weeks.

It's still sweeping aged care homes, prisons, other care facilities and of course the hospitals (staff and non corona patients), themselves.

Doubt we're at peak.

Did they announce anything about extending the lockdown today given we've not peaked yet? DH said 3 weeks more but I can't find anything

No we haven't. Patrick Vallance said we will start to hit the peak this week though and that he expects our numbers to keep rising. Maybe by midweek is my guesstimate based on what they have been reporting

*midweek next week

There will likely be a high number tomorrow to catch up with the deaths not reported over the Bank Holiday. But we might have peaked in terms of the deaths actually happening.

IIRC they need to review by the 16th.

They have all but bluntly said "it will be extended".

We'll do well if it's only 3 weeks.

No-there is just a big lad in reporting of deaths.

Lag

We might be getting a fairly long plateau - r0 is probably a good bit under 1 in the general population, but over it amongst HCP, keyworkers, care homes etc.

Think it will be more than 3 weeks but will be in three weekly increments to give us all hope

And agree, I'm expecting a horrible number tomorrow. The numbers from Scotland have been very low (our weekend lag is particularly bad)

No

Although, to be fair the terrible economic outlook is the wild card.

Rishi Sunak and Matt Hancock have allegedly clashed around the issue of relaxing lockdown, Hancock being concerned at the expected death toll (direct to coronavirus) and Sunak becoming increasingly alarmed at the economic figures he is seeing.

No, this happens every weekend. The numbers appear to flatten or decrease slightly, people get their hopes up. It's just that weekend reporting isn't great so the numbers are nonsense.

There will be a big jump tomorrow, and possibly Thursday to make up for it, high Friday and Saturday, then back to nonsense numbers Sunday and Monday.

Peak hopefully next week but it'll get worse before it gets better.

Wait for the rest of this weeks numbers. Weekends have always been lower as the reports take time to filter through. After a four-day weekend it will take the rest of the week to catch-up.

The ONS weekly death rate (all causes) comparison is showing the real truth behind the reported figures, and the mainstream media is starting to challenge the spin coming out of the daily briefings and reported numbers.

The number of new cases is still very high today at over 5,000 so I don't think we are there yet.

We might be approaching/at cases plateau, but deaths - no

I agree DivGirl

And I think we’re going to get a couple of big spikes for care homes - as happened in France.

No. DH trust gearing up for mid May peak.

I was surprised to read just now that the new Nightingale hospital in east London has only treated 14 patients so far.

was surprised to read just now that the new Nightingale hospital in east London has only treated 14 patients so far.

Yeah I'm confused by the whole building then all over the place if hospitals are mananging capacity so we'll. I mean it's great it paid work for people who otherwise might not be earning but...