Have we hit peak yet?

[Rosalie49]

^just that.

My guess with Nightingale hospitals is that they will slowly become Covid only - and once we get through this peak, Covid patients will no longer be admitted to all hospitals, just these specific Covid hospitals?

I know this is a thread for facts and stats so I shouldn't be making assumptions but just trying to think logically about why there are so many and scattered all over the UK

I just heard that the local hospice is now only supporting end of life patients at home, and the premises are being handed over to the local NHS trust for extra COVID space.

I think it's not an unreasonable assumption re the nightingales in many areas. They're still actively planning and building new ones.

The order of decrease is cases, admissions, death I understand. Cases is difficult because of our low testing rates but fewer hospital admissions now should equal fewer deaths in due course.

There was a 2% fall in hospital cases - so effectively flat as that's within the range of normal variance I'd say. It looks to have been flat for a few days, so deaths probably another week or so?

But possibly a plateau after

My guess with Nightingale hospitals is that they will slowly become Covid only - and once we get through this peak, Covid patients will no longer be admitted to all hospitals, just these specific Covid hospitals?

@loobyloo1234 - It's been made very clear from the start that the Nightingale hospitals have been built to be Covid only - they will only be accepting patients already on full ventilation. These are not being built to operate as normal hospitals. They're for warehousing ventilated Covid patients.

Did you read everything else I put @DogInATent - I know they are Covid. I am saying they will be used instead of ‘normal’ hospitals though once restrictions are lifted for anyone that has the virus. I never said they would be used for anything else

It wasn't clear in what you wrote, but if you meant that the Nightingale hospitals will become the only hospitals that Covid patients are sent to - that's very unlikely.

Regular hospitals are going to continue to receive Covid-suspect patients. There's too few Nightingale hospitals to act as receiving hospitals - there are large parts of the country over 2 hours from the closest Nightingale unit, and some places over four hours distant. If they wanted to do that they'd have set-up 200 smaller units rather than a handful of larger ones. The regular hospitals are already setting up Covid receiving units separate from their normal facilities.

Peak ventilator use comes after peak death as some who survive can be on ventilators for weeks, and new people are still coming in. Nightingale presumably will be used more in the future (From friend who works in ICU and is preparing for more).

Italy and Spain hit peak deaths about 15 days from lockdown. We are about the same now, so I think we are nearly there- but- I’m expecting a big increase tomorrow due to the delay reporting cases over Easter.

U mean bipap patients. Since the new hospitals are recruiting health visitors and community school nurses I'm I'm querying the quality of care and safety of the care provided yes I am a registered nurse. I hope the health visitors and student nurses get proper training as it's their pin at stake. I feel so sorry for nhs students at moment as from year 1 to 3 they are been made to work and if they dont they are told they wont graduate or pass that year. No consideration into if they have underlying health conditions

It seems that they’ve massively increased ICU capacity at hospitals to deal with the peak with the Nightingale hospitals taking the extra. Hopefully post peak those wards that have been redeployed will be available for the patients who would normally inhabit them and covid patients will be in a designated area and the temporary nightingale hospitals.

I read the other day that the Nightingale Hospital in B'ham won't be taking ventilated patients. They will be cared for in ICUs around the region and the Nightingale patients will be those who don't need ventilation.

A family friend is a doctor assigned to the nightingale hospital in London. It will be used to treat those not needing ICU care

@Appuskidu found this funnier than I should
“ No-there is just a big lad in reporting of deaths”

This is the Nightingale London model of operation, it's one big ICU:
www.hsj.co.uk/news/exclusive-details-of-nightingales-clinical-model-revealed/7027299.article

No, very close I think but there is a lag in the figures. We're still a week to 10 days from peak.

No idea why weekends and bank holidays still exist in an emergency like this where the data is so important but figures get delayed each time. So annoying

No we haven't, we lockdown 3 weeks ago, there will be people about to die from catching it before lockdown as it can take up to 6 weeks before it kills someone.

They're not all following the London model. the Manchester Nightingale is taking people that are stepping down from ITU for rehab and recovery before discharge.

I agree that the long-term strategy is that much of the COVID care will be in Nightingales, which should enable the NHS to restart normal business, routine surgery etc which has been put on hold to deal with the first wave.

No idea why weekends and bank holidays still exist in an emergency like this where the data is so important but figures get delayed each time. So annoying

Yes I agree with this. I don’t understand it, it looks like they are saying that it’s all just fine in a time of a global pandemic to primarily respect that we can’t expect the staff to cover bank holidays and weekends. Whilst the rest of the country are either locked up at home or killing themselves trying to keep the country turning.

I’m sure that’s not why, but it does look odd and I don’t know why aren’t we questioning it.

They're not all following the London model. the Manchester Nightingale is taking people that are stepping down from ITU for rehab and recovery before discharge.

Yup, so as a step-down unit (the end part of the pathway the Excel unit is implementing) it's still not acting as a Covid receiving unit. The regular NHS hospitals continue to receive all new Covid patients, the new unit allows them to pass them off once they're off intensive care but not yet ready to return to the community.