Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

For the week ending April 3rd there were sadly 6000 excess deaths, so 857 more a day than on an average year.

Only 3475 named CV on the death certificate though.

anyone who thinks herd immunity will protect them just needs to look at Boris, did a lot for him didnt it! Recent reports are suggesting that immunity may not be present in those who get it mildly and that in the rest it will likely wane after a year or so.

so 857 more a day than on an average year.

So pretty much everyone who died with CV then.

Morbid question I know but how do the figures compare to how many people would normally die on a regular April day?

In my SE Asian country: approx 1100 deaths per day. We have had 41 covid 19 deaths since Jan 13th. 45 killed daily on the roads on average with a 70 million population

@KickAssAngel I asked about quoting figures per million and kind people discussed this - apparently epidemiologists avoid this ,apparently it makes big countries look as they they are doing better and smaller countries look as though they are doing worse .

And it doesn't indicate how fast the disease is spreading . The steepness of the curve is more telling than the nos per million .

@LWJ70
"Sorry but there have been 459 deaths in Indonesia and it has a population of 267 million"

This is not true. Indonesia has only done around 20,000 tests. There are more than 20 doctors dead from covid-19 in Indonesia

www.inews.id/news/nasional/2-dokter-perintis-di-indonesia-meninggal-terinfeksi-corona-idi-total-sudah-22

This is more than double the UK total. This is not consistent with 459 deaths

Singapore was detecting covid-19 cases in Jakarta diagnosed there as 'pneumonia' in February.

This is how Indonesia does its numbers

joglosemarnews.com/2020/04/update-terbaru-corona-sragen-2-pdp-meninggal-satu-pdp-rapid-test-positif-jumlah-pp-13-148-66-odp-5-pdp-dirawat/

As you can see cases are only considered positive if they have a lab test, of which only 20k have been done, 'PDP' are likely positive but won't be counted as such, even if dead , unless a positive lab test (not rapid test) is performed and returned.

Jakarta's coffin makers are working 18 hour days and funeral numbers are far above previous records.

There are likely thousands dead in Jakarta, but it is not clear beyond Jakarta, since Indonesia is almost uniquely spread out over thousands of islands. However Jakarta, at least, has tens of thousands of cases.

There are no surgical masks available across Indonesia, only cloth, the mosques are open as normal for most of Indonesia, and in Jakarta many are ignoring the closure orders. Your experience in Thailand is not the same across SE Asia .

This man was one of the most popular singers in Indonesia. He was very wealthy. He lived in Jakarta. When he was brought to the hospital it was full.

www.suara.com/entertainment/2020/04/08/204049/sebelum-meninggal-glenn-fredly-sempat-ditolak-rs-karena-kamar-inap-penuh

In Indonesia the main criteria for admission is ability to pay. This is like turning away George Michael or Robbie Williams.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves

With total respect, I'm not quibbling about testing numbers, I'm not doubting that deaths in Indonesia are probably much greater than the Government stats (UK too ).

I'm just commenting that the massive death rates are not happening (in SE Asia, Japan, New Zealand etc) on the scale of N Italy, Spain, UK and N America.

My point concerns the data, studies and evidence regarding vitamin D3 deficiency. This team of researchers are calling for serum tests to be carried out on covid 19 patients so that they can shed light on the statistics and give vital information to governments and health providers.

Here's the link again:
www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19 and Vitamin D Information.pdf?dl=0

@Barracker
''Scientists suspect that thousands of Indonesian infants develop and die from pneumonia every year because they don’t get enough sunshine. Australian and Indonesian researchers are now working together to determine if more vitamin D could save the country’s children from the deadly disease.''
www.sbs.com.au/topics/voices/health/article/2016/02/29/vitamin-d-could-save-lives-indonesian-infants

sorry that wasn't for Barracker

No, please do not compare Indonesia with the UK. The UK has a coherent science-based approach and weekly reports on total deaths, and an attempt to reconcile between total deaths reported and those officially attributed to Corona. Indonesia lacks this.

In Indonesia if you die you will be buried (wrapped in cloth) by your family without involvement of doctors and hospitals in most cases. There are 1/4 of the UK hospital beds per capita, and of those beds most be woefully inadequate in terms of healthcare.

It does seem that many SE Asian countries are doing a good job, but the problem is that it is very clear that coronavirus spreads EXTREMELY well in SE Asia (as can be seen by the multi-thousand-infections caused at religious events in KL, India, Jakarta), even if as you suggest it doesn't kill so well (which will be to a great extent a product of the age pyramid).

So however little it may affect the resident population, the problem is that you can NOT have tourists flying to Bali and then bringing it back to the UK, as for example with the Vietnamese heiress who flew from Milan to London to Hanoi infecting at least five people on the plane who then infected dozens of others.

Anyway the thing with covid-19 is it mostly kills those 80+, who aren't a major portion of the population in developing countries. If you take away more than half of the fatalities in Italy (the 80+) it would not look so bad.

The problem with covid-19 in SE Asia is that it has fucked the livelihoods of millions of people who will soon be going hungry, the resultant malnutrition, associated other disease, etc., and for example it doesn't seem like Europe will be in a hurry to open that up again.

"Scientists suspect that thousands of Indonesian infants develop and die from pneumonia every year because they don’t get enough sunshine"

When my son was born in 2002, the Indonesian hospital had babies on the roof in direct sunlight. I can only assume that the lack of sunlight is due to traditional beliefs in Javanese culture etc about not receiving visitors for some months, and probably applies to the poor

Guardian had an article I am sure. Deaths increased by 40% in Jakarta. It may not hebCovid related? But a very large increase.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/jakarta-to-start-shutdown-indonesia-burials-fears-coronavirus

On the ONS figures, I can’t seem to find the same breakdowns as in last week’s file. But one thing to bear in mind is that these are based on when a death was registered rather than when it occurred. When looking at the file last week, there seemed to be a 1-2 week delay in registering the death, so although this was deaths registered by 3rd April, many of the deaths will have occurred 1-2 weeks previously. This means that the true number for 3rd April will be much higher than what is reported here.

Also last week, the number of Covid deaths reported was only those where they seemed to have processed all the stats, so may also underreport.

Eyewhisker the median time to death registration is 5 days (or was). For hospital deaths 4 days.

It's worth keeping in perspective the proportion of deaths distributef globally. Ft diagram shows this clearly.

"If you are in the U.K. you can get enough vit D from the sun anytime from now until September. Plenty for everyone. "

Yep, why I keep objecting to those posters demonising people who sit or lie in the sun for part of their "Allowed" time outside

Let's try if we can to keep this thread based on actual facts and figures, as it was set up by Barracker for that reason. I'm sure Vitamin D is important, but I doubt it's a cure.

alloutoffucks is being eaten on another thread for suggesting the deaths in care homes are being minimised. It does seem odd that UK care home deaths are so low and I'll be following that figure with interest as the ONS data is updated. If the data so far is up to 3rd of April, and average reporting is 5 days behind that means the ONS data is for deaths up to around the 29th of March, so well before the numbers started rising rapidly.

Yep BigChoc, I rooted ds out of bed today and made him go outside for an hour. He's nocturnal at this stage

Newaccount- I think from a bit of advance searching, there are a handful of borisbots who have decided they're out to prove a point with long term posters with whom they have political differences. I'm going to ignore and ignore some more from now on. Trolls gotta troll.

Median means half of deaths are reported in 5 days - so almost half are registered more than a week after death. So the figures reflect deaths in the last week in March. Last week they showed which days these corresponded to but I can’t see that in the latest data.

@NewAccountForCorona

I'm sure Vitamin D is important, but I doubt it's a cure.

There is no present cure or vaccine for covid 19, that's the point. Vitamin D3 serum levels has been shown to aid recovery from viral respiratory diseases in studies I have referenced.
Latitude based studies are derived from global data and show differing patterns across the globe.
The meta-analysis study I linked previously cite many studies using 1000s of subjects.

Just because data is not derived from Europe or N America does not make it irrelevant in a daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread.

@Edujaded

That is an amazing graphic. It shows the majority of deaths are occurring between the 40th and 50th parallel north. The southern hemisphere (apart from a few countries) are not showing these data trends.

The government’s daily coronavirus briefings have repeatedly and incorrectly indicated that the UK has fewer coronavirus deaths than France, based on the numbers of deaths in hospitals, HSJ has learned.

The global death comparison chart used in the televised briefing on Monday 13 April showed covid-19 fatalities in France were just above 14,000, as compared to the UK total of 11,329 confirmed hospitalised deaths. Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said the chart only “looks at deaths in hospital”.

But, according to Public Health France, the figure for France included deaths from outside hospitals, such as in care and nursing homes. In fact, on 13 April, there had been a total of 9,588 reported deaths of covid-19 patients in French hospitals, from the total of 14,967 deaths in all settings.

It means the UK is in fact above France’s trajectory of reported covid-19 deaths, along with that of countries such as China, Germany and South Korea — even though the UK is further behind France in development of the outbreak (with fewer days passed since 50 cumulative deaths were reported).

There is huge public debate over how the UK is faring in terms of deaths compared to other European nations and the government and its advisers have constantly referrred to the ’global death comparison’ data to defend their position.

At the briefing on 13 April, Sir Patrick said the global deaths comparison chart “doesn’t carry all deaths in this, it looks at the deaths in hospital”.

He said: “And the reason it looks at deaths in hospital is that’s the international standard and which everyone else is doing in terms of reporting deaths.

It comes after a study from the London School of Economics suggested between 42 per cent and 57 per cent of coronavirus deaths in Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium have been happening in care homes.