Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

49 Scotland
19 Wales
10 NI
778 England
These figures from sky at 2 pm

40 Scotland not 49

Why is there a discrepancy in the figures again?

All 4 countries have different times as their period in which they count 'daily' deaths I believe

@loobyloo1234 thank you

Care home death data is being counted and released by ONS in the UK, however there is a lag.

I think there were similar issues in Italy, France added them in at a later stage and there appear to be problems in the USA.

Vitamin d will now go the way of toilet rolls and flour, a few people will hoard it all and there'll be none left for the rest of us

If you are in the U.K. you can get enough vit D from the sun anytime from now until September. Plenty for everyone. Vitamin D council has info on how to do this effectively.

@LWJ70 that isn't exactly true. There is still road traffic in SE Asia. And I don't know about all of SE Asia, but there are many many deaths in Jakarta, likely thousands if you ignore the government's pisspoor testing, lack of lockdown, third-highest aircraft movements in the world, religious nutcases, etc.

It might be the virus does better among the rich who spend their time in air con malls and offices, but it is certainly killing in Jakarta in large numbers, and spreads very well in confined spaces such as mass religious gatherings even in high heat

OK - so (as far as you can tell) how aware are people of this? I keep reading posts on MN that says things like "I feel so bad for Americans, they must be terrified". I know the US has the highest # of deaths, but the deaths per million is significantly lower than many European countries.

Do the deaths per mill. not get reported? imo, although they're unreliable and are not like-for-like, they're the closest we've got to a comparison.

The UK is catching up on testing, but at one point tests per mill. of pop were less than half the number in the US, which compared badly to Germany etc.

I'm just so frustrated that people in the UK, although not exactly idolizing the govt, seem to be unaware of the true figures. Or am I being alarmist?

And I'm not even slightly thinking that the US is problem free, btw! I don't think that there's one government that is looking honest about data collection right now.

It's difficult to generalise. In the USA, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut etc are way ahead of the curve. Death per million in NYC is the highest in the World- whereas the less population dense states like Texas have many, many fewer deaths.

In the UK London and the West Midlands are ahead and Scotland, the West Country and Easy Yorkshire have lower rates.

I think, it's mostly the Trump news conferences that elicit a response- and the sad need to hope that you're not in the worst place in the world!

Hello KickAssAngel no-one can know what everyone is thinking. I imagine some people are taking comfort from the high numbers in the US because it makes ours look less bad - it is not rational, it is psychological protection. Most people have a very basic idea of what other countries are like , e g no. NH S in US, Chinese autocratic government et c and use these ideas to help believe they have it better, even though the reality is much more complex. I don't have a personal 'favourite ' response - all countries are different and have responded with what they have. I am grateful for the signs of cooperation - so I am glad if Germany can test a lot - it will help us. I don't blame our government, but I don't think they are wor ld scale covid heroes. I wish there was more testing and PPE.

@DivGirl thank you.

@KickAssAngel

I think people here have a healthy suspicion of govt figures or at least the way they are being released. We know that deaths at home and in care homes are a huge part and not being released in tandem with the daily hospital death toll.

Others on here will know better than me whether the deaths per million is a meaningful comparison with USA right now. I don't know. The USA is so much bigger and in the absence of an overall federal policy on lockdown etc, it's almost more comparable with a collection of countries. When the virus starts to spread further in the rural South, well...it's going to be bad.

yes, the Trump "bulletins" (aka Presidential rally) are something!

But then, the governors are mainly just keeping on keeping on. I get the whole hoping you're not in the worst area type thing - I look at Florida & Texas and thank my lucky stars for where I am.

I'm not able to even raise these questions with family as we're so far apart politically that they take it as personal insult.

@kickassangel i just reread my post and hope it didn't come across in the wrong way I wasn't saying you had a sad need- I was referring to the natural reaction that we all get!

@KickAssAngel

There is a kind of “resignation to the worst” here that I am not comfortable with. People are not critical enough.

I also don’t think it is fair to compare the whole US as one number and prefer looking at the state wide figures.

California and Washington state for example, where some of the first cases were identified, look much better than current hotspots in New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Louisiana.

In the U.K. we hear how there is no strong federal mandated action in the US and it is left up to state governors etc so it is harder to monitor deaths days since lockdown began for example as we can for European countries (I believe some states closed schools and Issued guidance before the U.K. did which led to some of the anxiety with our government in the week before our lockdown).

I think people are beginning to realise that the UK figures are seriously underestimated, as they are announced on a daily basis.

When I said that two weeks ago no-one believed me. I think people are now seeing that the number of deaths are much higher than the daily "our ICUs aren't full, we still have plenty of capacity, there's loads of PPE just ask for it" press conferences say.

those looking at the USA are doing so with a sort of horrified fascination at Trump's briefings and the hope that state governors have more sense.

Anyone who thinks Boris has handled this well is so deluded reason is unlikely to make an impact on them. However none of us have seen the end of this yet and much of America will be lagging New York in the same way much of Britain is lagging London. We can only hope America is learning from both Europe and New York and the rest of America does not go the same way as New York.

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves

''@LWJ70 that isn't exactly true. There is still road traffic in SE Asia. And I don't know about all of SE Asia, but there are many many deaths in Jakarta.''

Sorry but there have been 459 deaths in Indonesia and it has a population of 267 million. Whereas the UK has had 5252 deaths with a population of 66 million. Indonesia detected its first case on 2nd March, whereas the UK detected its first case on 12th March.

Believe me, the pandemic is not spreading at the same rate and showing the same mortality figures around the world.
Unfortunately, the world's media is Europe and N.America centric.
To successfully analyse data, you need to take a global perspective.

From

www.actuaries.org.uk/news-and-insights/news/deaths-attributable-covid-19

Deaths attributable to COVID-19
14 April 2020
During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing weekly mortality updates. This update shows the position as at 3 April 2020 (week 14 of 2020), based on provisional deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 14 April 2020.
The key points of this update are:
There were 59% more deaths registered in week 14 of 2020 than if standardised mortality rates had been the same as week 14 of 2019.
The number of “excess” deaths is 76% higher than the number of registered deaths in the ONS data for week 14 where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.
As at 14 April 2020, there could already be over 23,000 cumulative excess deaths in England & Wales, and over 25,000 in the UK.
All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

cathy & clare - I took it as general 'you' but it's true of me too.

Yes - about some states responding more quickly than others. In Michigan our schools closed over a week before the UK, but we had far fewer cases (then) than the UK did. We literally had

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves

Here in SE Asis.A colleague of mine has just been discharged from hospital. He reports that he was about the only covid 13 patient in the hospital. There is a population of 70 million here and infection is all over the place. We have had 38 deaths since the first case on Jan 13th with millions of Chinese visitors in the last three months.The locals are telling me that there are no mass graves, no shortages of ventilators, I can buy a mask in the 7-11. We got lost in the car yesterday and passed a state hospital. No sirens, no hustle and bustle, very, very quiet. I recovered from covid 19 three weeks ago at home.

Morbid question I know but how do the figures compare to how many people would normally die on a regular April day?

Here in SE Asia, I mean

Indonesia about 8% of population over 60, Britain maybe 18%? Vitamin D deficiency maybe an issue too.