Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Pocketem that is fascinating and terrifying in equal measure.

For the duration of this crisis, it might be best to get out of the old mindset about the school year timing

Logically, we could adapt the school terms - and adapt when businesses can resume - to the COVID schedule,
to minimise danger

COVID is expected to behave like other Coronaviruses, in that cases will disappear to near-zero during summer
(we're really screwed if not)
then build up in colder weather to a high level again over the winter months.

So, a new summer term would be safest for children

• and for working parents to return -

and then have a very long winter "holiday" and restrictions

Returning as usual in September would be returning just as cases would probably start to rise again

From the NRS, the Scottish equivalent to the ONS:

As at 5th April , there have been a total of 354 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate.

Of the total number of deaths registered in week 14 (30 March – 5 April), there were 282 where COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate (16.2% of the total) an increase of 220 from the previous week (23 – 29 March).

Over 60% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were of people aged 75 or over.

This number is different from the count of deaths published daily on the gov.scot website, because the latter is based on deaths of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 whereas these figures include all deaths where COVID-19 (included suspected cases) was mentioned on the death certificate.

These are good explanation videos of why vitamin d deficiency is important in health and in fighting Covid-19/respiratory infections for anyone interested:

Returning to the ONS figures, does anyone have any more thoughts on that excess of around 3000 deaths - not attributed to COVID, but surplus to the five-year average?

Oh, I've just realised that the ONS data is England, whereas the "announced" data is UK, so my calculation of 689 extra is an underestimate.

Inclusion of Scotland's figures would bring it up to 1000 extra deaths in Eng/Scot in that one week.

I'm going out to the garden with a hot water bottle and woolly socks to get some sun on my face.

Actually, azaleanth, that's a worrying figures. Is it due to Covid deaths with no official diagnosis, so not included on death certificates or is it due to other medical issues not being treated - or do deaths fluctuate by that much?

On the vitamin D I am not suggesting that it’s not important

... but to put a chart up with those bars and say it is due to vitamin D is a leap. There are many factors which would lead to that image.

This is the first evidence we have, I think, of overall surplus deaths. I'm no expert but guess it's a combination of other deaths caused by the exceptional circumstances, and COVID deaths not recorded as such? It seems to suggest nearly twice as many extra deaths as the ones attributed officially to COVID.

Interesting/concerning article on how we might manage post ICU care for the patients who survive CV19 but with long term health impact:

www.hsj.co.uk/commissioning/we-need-a-nightingale-model-for-rehab-after-covid-19-/7027335.article

(It took my DD almost a year to return to school post ICU - worrying that we could have thousands of adults in a similar position with no adequate care available).

Need the expert help of the mathematians,
I calculated 2464 deaths from coronavirus in hospitals for that week ( up to 3 april) i took this from the reddit site. This includes ni.wales and scotland.

Ons states 3474 corona related deaths in same week. So around 1000 then? One third? I am no statisican and these are very rough. Does the ons include scotland, n.i wales? Is my logic flawed? Have not read that it is one third anywhere.

Sorry @humphriescushion one third of what? I'm not surprised if the ONS figures add another third onto the amount stated at the time, due to delays in data coming through plus nursing homes /community.

@azaleanth90 sorry that was not very clear, not sure i mean a third. We had 2000 plus in hospital and 1000 outside which were not added.

I just wanted to query the point made by @BigChocFrenzy regarding the usual seasonal pattern of flu. I'm not trying to cause any offence and I'm not an expert by any means but I wanted to check something.....

I was under the impression that part of the reason that flu ramps up as we reach the later months is because people begin to congregate more due to the colder weather?

I'm thinking that this may happen differently this year as people will probably not congregate in the same way due to social distancing.

Is that likely? If so we may not see the usual peak in flu?

@NewAccountForCorona do deaths fluctuate by that much

Not normally. Was the worst week for mortality thus far, well out with the normal range for this time of year

@peoplepleaser1 flu season ended earlier than normal this year (at least in America) perhaps due to the lockdown reducing transmission rates

Compared to a usual flu season when there are still a significant number of cases at week 14 of the year

Ignore me, just realised that maybe the ons figures are totals to date and not for one week! Will check

Peoplepleaser1 The papers I've read refer to cases of other Coronaviruses typically reducing in summer,
partly because people's immune system is heathier - Vit D a big factor again -
partly because viruses don't propogate as well under hot sun

and maybe other reasons too that we hope all apply to CV.

There is some evidence that sunlight above a certain level may inhibit some viruses from reproduction on surfaces
Winter sunlight will not help, because it's not strong enough

Some earlier papers about sunlight on other viruses, but I only have this bio-warfare link atm (!)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1280232/

( Being out in the sun is pushed a lot more in Germany as something generally to be encouraged as healthy
so I have probably been influenced by many years of hearing this )

Just checked and it appears that they are totals for the week, it is not very clear to me. So an extra 1000 deaths for that week to the 3rd april.

Personally, I am much more among crowds in summer and warm weather,
but stay home in winter and socialise far less

However, I don't know if I'm just an oddity !

it is not very clear to me

We found the ONS info to be very muddled last week too (over on the part thread). Several of us made different assumptions about what the numbers actually depicted. We concluded that the ONS really needs to clarify what they are actually saying!

Roles of Humidity and Temperature in Shaping Influenza Seasonality

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4097773/

Experimental studies in guinea pigs demonstrated that
influenza virus transmission is strongly modulated by temperature and humidity.

A number of epidemiological studies have followed up on these findings and revealed
robust associations between influenza incidence in temperate regions and local conditions of humidity and temperature,
offering a long-awaited explanation for the wintertime seasonality of influenza in these locales

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/09/830297538/scientists-try-to-figure-out-if-summer-will-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19?t=1586863836764

Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunobiology at the Yale University School of Medicine...

In winter, the drop in the amount of water vapor in the cold, dry air makes it easier for viruses to become airborne.
This makes what Iwasaki calls the "perfect setting" for respiratory viruses to transmit.

"When you cough or sneeze or even talk, you're generating these droplets that are coming out of your mouth,"^
she says.
"And some of them, if you're infected, will contain virus particles.

In very arid conditions, those particles lose the water vapor and they become airborne."
This allows the virus to persist in the air for a long time, much longer than in summer.

Of course, she's talking about traditional cold and flu viruses that have been studied for years.
The question is whether the new coronavirus will also behave this way.
....
The World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in their guidance on SARS-CoV2 downplay airborne spread,
saying instead that the primary form of transmission is by "large respiratory droplets.

"This debate - airborne vs. droplets - is a crucial divergence in thought when it comes to figuring out if COVID-19 is going to be seasonal.

If the primary form of transmission is airborne, then the novel coronavirus could become a seasonal disease.

If it mainly spreads through "large respiratory droplets", then seasonality is less likely.

Personally, I am much more among crowds in summer and warm weather, but stay home in winter and socialise far less

Perhaps it’s the type of socialising that is different? In Summer we do a lot of beer gardens, seaside day trips, barbecues, picnics, cycles round the lakes etc.

In winter, exercise tends to be indoors in artificial environments (spin and gym instead of walking and cycling) and indoors in pubs and restaurants. October through March is sweaty gig season.

@Dulang, yes thank you it is very unclear and this is important. I am slightly obessed with this since here in france these figures are hugh but at least now as awful as they are we have some clarity.

Anedotally, i had an appointment with my gp just before we were told about the lockdown (france) he prescribed me with a vial of vitamin D - first time ever, no blood test to say i needed it. Think the thought i would be googling so preempted any future phone ( he has me pegged as a hypocondriac probably rightly).