Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

France is counting deaths in care homes and these now account for more than 30percent. The figures jumped up enormously when these were added.

I used the table on reddit to count the days from lockdown to highest deaths. Italy, spain and hopefully france ( only a few days past it so a bit early) all hit highest at around the 20 day mark. I was hoping this would apply to the uk but not sure if it will. I am not statisically minded but track the data has helped me to cope so thanks to all the people on this thread.

20 days would have been Easter sunday. But because of reporting delays it will apear this week (likely thursday). I will be pleasantly surpirised if it doesn't tip the 1,000 mark.

Yes hopeful, i thought that as well, easter may delay it and give or take a few days. I am hoping france ( and of course spain and italy) continue to fall.

@Bifflepants I think it would have been better for our lockdown to mirror yours in NZ.

So many people think that in England only essential or key workers can continue to work. But that's a huge misunderstanding, and lots of people are working as usual, some are acting responsibly, others less so.

Also, IMO more and more people are going back to work as the hysteria dies down and they find ways of working that incorporates social distancing. Inevitably this does increase transmission rates though.

If you were in any doubt that latitude and covid 19 deaths are linked somehow:

Recent call from three UK based researchers for hospitals to urgently analyse serum vitamin D3 levels from covid 19 patients:

www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19 and Vitamin D Information.pdf?dl=0

I bought vitamin D3 the other day.

I wonder if that is causation or correlation, LWJ70. The latitude includes all the higher populated wealthier countries - US and most of Europe - who are likely to (a) have had a lot of movement via air travel and (b) be keeping records of increased deaths.

I'm not saying vitamin D has nothing to do with it, I think it probably has. And winter, cold temperatures and people being crowded indoors certainly aided spread. But I'm not yet convinced it's going to stay a US/European problem.

Innui, that is more than half of the deaths outside hospital, in a country that is admitting people earlier and has lower admissions criteria!

Yes NewAccount I wondered the same. Worth considering in the mix.

Also longevity (higher age group) and earlier measures eg South Africa

Plus same latitude occurs twice on the planet so interesting to compare outcomes by population at same latitude.

If you compare France with its counterpart for example they’ll be nothing alike as other factors such as being isolated, tiny island, low population, lower travel, early lockdown on curve mean they are very different. So latitude and D impact is behaving in a very limited way.

There’s so much to consider though it’s very interesting. I find it a big mix of modelling, human behaviour and the elements of the virus.

Current vitamin D status in European and Middle East countries and strategies to prevent vitamin D deficiency

(peer-reviewed & published 2019)

https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/eje/180/4/EJE-18-0736.xml

Vitamin D deficiency (serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D)

So the ONS data up to 3 April here suggests there were 6k extra deaths last week compared to average of previous years (16k vs 10k). Only just over half of those were listed as COVID. Am I reading that right? www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Going back to BigChoc's musings about Germany; she is right about someone taking the lead on coming out of lockdown, and Germany is certainly the "best" placed country to do it, but I'm not sure they will want to be the guinea pig.

It's interesting how out perceptions change - at the beginning of the Italian lockdown I remember looking at the tv and wondering how the hell they could force people to stay home; now in many countries that is the norm. The question is whether everyone will immediately go back to normal when rules are relaxed, or if people will, willingly, or even voluntarily, take it slowly.

I think there is a risk in the UK that relaxing rules will mean instant abandonment of the rules. I'm amazed at the number of people in the UK who want the schools back for example; in Ireland there has never been any thought of schools being back before September.

Germany, with it's population of well-behaved rule-followers (or at least that's how we perceive them ) would be great examples for the rest of Europe. If they could relax rules slowly and steadily and consistently, without danger of a resurgence of the virus, the rest of us could follow. The trouble is that it would take time, and I'm not convinced many countries will be able or willing to go at the slow pace that would be needed to make sure it was working.

There are so many other factors.

Do people think it is more to do with Vitamin D?

Interested

Breaking: Office of National Statistics says total number of deaths in UK in week ending 3 April was 6,082 more than the average for that time of year.

One in five of all deaths recorded that week referred to COVID19 in the certificate.

NB these are ALL deaths - not just those in hospitals

Astounding: nearly half of ALL deaths recorded in London in the week ending 3 April involved COVID-19, according to
ONS figures. 46.6% of all London deaths mentioned the virus on the certificate.

ONS figures - the most comprehensive timely measures on mortality - show that thus far 90.2% of deaths mentioning COVID19 on the certificate were in hospital. 5% in care homes.

Govts may implement mass - free - D3 supplementation, especially if face masks are an additional measure

Also - in the UK at least - abandoning the current demonisation of anyone sun-bathing outside.

Obviously many measures other than D vits will be needed while waiting for the vaccinations

Has a total of deaths so far (hospital/care home/community) by COVID been released? I wanted to see how it compares with the hospital deaths. I don’t find the ons figures very easy to understand!

Yes they make sense as measures even if other factors contribute more (or less).

Yes azaleanth; It looks like 3,475 deaths in week ending 3rd April.

Worldometer (I know, I know, but those were the deaths announced at the time by the UK government for that week were: 28/3 260, 29.3 209, 30/3 180, 31/3 381, 1/4 563, 2/4 509, 3/4 684. Total 2.786.

689 extra - that isn't as high as I had feared; I wonder will the next two weeks be similar or higher

The ONS figures seem to me to say that 6k extra deaths happened in the week ending 3 April - an increase of 60%. So of the 60% 'extra' deaths, not necessarily COVID but likely related in some way, fewer than half are listed as COVID . Would that include deaths at home? As well as presumably those in nursing homes where COVID has allegedly often not been recorded? (Of course there are other causes, eg not seeking treatment for heart attacks)
At a very rough look - the last two weeks, the (very small) number of deaths of 14-19 year olds have dropped considerably since Jan/Feb. Lockdown advantages?

"90.2% of deaths mentioning COVID19 on the certificate were in hospital. 5% in care homes" - that's for up to 3rd April I presume? I wonder will it stay like that later. It seems weird that almost half the deaths in Ireland are in care homes, but only 5% in the UK

Has a total of deaths so far (hospital/care home/community) by COVID been released?

Not a total, but for the week ending 3rd April

Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to week ending 3 April 2020, 90.2% (3,716 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes

That was up to 10 days ago, I fear in the last 10 days the community and care home deaths will be much higher as fewer people are getting to hospital, so many being told to stay home or sent home who would probably have had a hospital stay (like Boho) a few weeks ago. Friend who is a paramedic is saying they are getting at least one arrest a day (usually one a month) per crew, and not good outcomes due to low response time and added time for staff to get full PPE on. So that's a LOT of extra deaths if the same is happening all other the country. These deaths are likely from covid (respiratory arrest leading to cardiac arrest) but untested and who knows when they will be as PM services will be swamped.

Yes, in other countries nearly half the deaths are happening in care homes, and anecdotally even though the government deny it, care homes are being told by GPs that their patients will not be admitted to hospital unless their end of life symptoms are so distressing that they cannot be managed with the usual palliative care within the care home

NewAccount I don't think citizens of thenUK are that different from other countries. So I don't believe relaxing the rules would mean we abandon them

I can't see the rules being relaxed any time soon.

I don't think parents in the UK are shouting for schools to go back tomorrow.
I do want the kids to go back to school if we get past the peak and things are getting better. So not this Monday when term was due to start, but June after half term. I know that it may not happen and it may have to be staggered but its the only way to the economy kick started. Its a bigger danger to expect people to return to work but schools are not open. We don't really know how much kids do spread this.

I expect pubs, cinemas, restaurants to be closed for a much longer time.