Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Some analysis from the Sunday Times here, mentions higher excess death rate.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/65a692d2-7b4f-11ea-850e-8afb79ccdc9a?shareToken=ce803d1e0abc3b23690bc04b681ccbcc

I’d be interested to know in time, how much the situation in Australia and New Zealand is affected by the time of year - late summer/Autumn and how much by lockdown measures.

There's a lengthy analysis of exit strategy options in new scientist this week if anyone subscribes. (Or in the magazine)

Basically there's several models but will very much vary in what will work where. Even different strategies in different areas of China. It's going to be challenging to know how to manage carefully. Really testing and antibody tests seem to be key in all models.

bigchoc With respect to ‘normal’ volume of deaths due to trauma you will find some good quality but slightly hard to unpick data here;
tarn they present the data in a way that indicates the number of survivors and unexpected survivors to support the change in NHS delivery of trauma care post 2010. Month by month data isn’t readily accessible and there are seasonable variations in activity. It will include all trauma;
Blunt (road traffic collisions, falls from height etc)
Penetrating (gun shot wounds, stabbings etc)
With trust level breakdown.

Thanks for the share token A1!

It's Barracker's volcano! 🌋

@NeurotrashWarrior my thoughts exactly!

waves to any journalists reading here. Well done Barracker.

Not nearly as clear as Barrackers! Far too noisy.

Have they commented/speculated re the 31 March figures at all?

That's a terrible graph (as in the way its laid out, although the data is also horrible)

What a busy graph, too hard to read

DuLANG thank you for posting that link to the HSE report on rationalising and improving PPE .

Clear evidence that existing PPE design varies from Trust to Trust

As you say ,zero evidence that the findings have been put in to practice ,especially wearing a long sleeved full length gown and hood .
Certainly an apron over a short sleeved uniform and a surgical mask not advised .

And what hell it must be to work wearing the full outfit .

Just found this thread. It's great.

Sorry if this has already been covered- has anything been published about the demographics of the 5,000 plus new daily cases? This is important data for understanding patterns of infection during lockdown.

They should have just paid Barracker for her volcano - much easier to read.

The FT links and graphs posted by BigChoc really are the clearest way of reading the data; they are doing a great job, pity the figures are so appalling.

Thanks, whattodo 👍

Thread So far, I've only seen stats breakdown for UK deaths and hospitalisations, not cases

and yes, Barracker has the best volcano ! 👏🏼

Thanks Bigchoc.

I'm guessing that the new cases must predominantly be made up of key workers and a few who are not following guidelines. If this isn't the case it's difficult to fathom how people are picking it up.

It's perfectly possible to pick it up while following the guidelines, through no fault of your own, if you're unlucky.

I've just posted this - from twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249131143938613255

on another thread but as I have no critical facility I'm wodering what posters here think ? Are Ireland and England including the same groups in the numbers of death ?

Ireland and the UK started this pandemic with roughly the same number of ICU beds (6.5 per 100,000 for Ireland, 6.6 per 100,000 in the UK).
As of today, there have been 320 deaths from the coronavirus in Ireland, and 9,875 deaths in the UK.
As of Saturday 11 April, there have been 6.5 deaths per 100,000 people in Ireland.

There have been 14.81 deaths per 100,000 people in the UK.
If you compare the per capita death rate between Ireland and England, rather than the UK as a whole, England has almost 2.5 times the number of deaths as Ireland (14.81 deaths per 100,000 vs 6.5 deaths per 100,000)

England has more than 2.5 times the deaths

Ireland entered lockdown before we did, closed schools before we did and have a stricter version of lockdown now. And they’re led by a doctor rather than, well, Boris and co

It is indeed hell working in full ppe, particularly last few days with the very warm weather and no air conditioning. Plus you've not got easy access to water so become dehydrated quickly !
Not read the whole thread, but as a unit we have noticed that very few of our ventilated patients are recovering as usual. They seem to progress and then have set backs. We've had discharges to the ward but they were patients who required cpap and self proning only. Quite a few vented patients have been in several weeks and are still critically ill. It's so bloody depressing.We clapped a lovely chap out of the unit the other day, so glad he's done well, he admitted it was terrifying.

England has more than 2.5 times the deaths

From what I am privately hearing, and indeed, what has already been published, this is probably down to the fact that most deaths are concentrated in London (and other urban areas) and are disproportionately affecting BAME communities, of which London has 40% and Ireland has under 5%. That alone would account for the disparity.

Would any of you statisticians like to comment on this? I've always felt that WEF is reliable, but this scares me:

www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/united-kingdom-coronavirus-covid19-fatalities-data-models

The demographics of Ireland are very different as is the level of urbanisation. If you look at a lot of the hotspots like London, NY, Paris and Barcelona they all have high population densities.

Ireland entered lockdown before we did, closed schools before we did and have a stricter version of lockdown now. And they’re led by a doctor rather than, well, Boris and co

Plus parts of London have more than double the population density of Dublin. The tube and bus networks (double decker and double-length) won’t have helped either. 9 bus drivers have died.

metro.co.uk/2020/04/08/14-tfl-workers-now-died-coronavirus-12525404/

Not sure about the BAME demographics for the two countries and we don’t have figures for BAME deaths (only critical care admission) but the two England areas most affected (London and Birmingham/West Midlands) have larger than average BAME populations.

I really hope someone is tracking this data properly or we are potentially missing an opportunity to mitigate risk.

Herman, when you say they are not recovering "as usual", can I ask what you are comparing to? Ventilation for other viral pneumonia, or ventilation in general? Thanks