Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

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Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I don't know BigChoc. I've seen the email though

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/11/coronavirus-diary-postcard-wuhanwhat-really-happened/
“ Many families weren’t so fortunate. At the peak, there were 5,000 bodies waiting to be scorched into ash at one of Wuhan’s eight crematoriums, a worker tells me – a far cry from two dozen per day before the pandemic. His shifts began at 5:30am and ended after dark.

Such accounts cast doubt over China’s reported death toll of about 3,300, especially as fatalities in Italy, Spain, France, the UK, US, and Iran exceed that figure.

Virus deaths are so sensitive that at a cemetery – which grieving families haven’t been allowed to visit – a phalanx of uniformed officers and plainclothes minders surround me and my colleague. When I try to leave, they grab my bag, drag me backward, and snatch my phone.”

It looks like the suspicions about the Chinese death toll are justified. A Telegraph reporter has just visited Wuhan.

"Covid had been downgraded"

Why on earth could it be thought less dangerous than before ? confused
It's setting the danger level to the amount of PPE they have - which is arse backwards

Absolutely, and this is what I was so concerned by this morning’s headlines declaring Matt Hancock was asking staff to treat PPE as a precious resource. The staff are the precious resource. And it doesn’t matter how many million units of PPE have been ordered, if it doesn’t meet demand, it’s not enough.

I’m very sad to hear about the porters at the JR.

Couple of Italian graphs for today. Most interesting bit on the first - the green line of recovered people now lifting away from deaths. Up to this week it had been higher but just slightly on the line. Now there's a clear space in between. Also the increase in positives due to testing far more people than ever before.
Second one shows hospital admissions seems to be on downward slope also.

That said, a) we know as with all countries these figures are not absolutes b) we've been told here in the south the next week will be crucial, my little town went from 4 cases to 8 overnight. The ambulance route from my town to the next town passes in front of my house and I'd say there were either a dozen freak accidents today, or more than 4 new hospitalisations.

I should probably have said "recategorized" rather than downgraded, as I think that's what it said.

Why on earth could it be thought less dangerous than before?
It's setting the danger level to the amount of PPE they have - which is arse backwards

It was downgraded from a HCID in order that patients could be treated in normal hospitals not HCID units as all the confirmed earlier cases were.

Interesting study oral.

Some of it obvious. Other bits interesting.

The last bit though:-

The public should not be misled by presenting false stories of hope to motivate behavior in the short-term.

This is literally opposite of the media and arguably the government.

It really worries me that people think lockdown is going to make COVID 19 go away. Someone posted that lockdown was the quickest way to beat it. I pointed out that not locking down was the quickest way to beat it (because you will either be immune or dead) but the price was morally unacceptable.
I am sure on some threads I would be accused of scaremongering but the second wave of Spanish flu was worse than the first.

ICNARC report issued - hospital admissions:

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c31dd38d-d77b-ea11-9124-00505601089b

Useful stats & charts on sex, age, race, BMI etc

Males again predominate in those most seriously ill

• sex seems by far the most severe "comorbidity" within any age group !

Mean age 60
Almost all patients were previously living without any assistance

The PPE advice is changing all the time. A suspicious person might think the advice was, as itsgettingweird said, changing according to what was available rather than what was required.

...

It was downgraded from a HCID in order that patients could be treated in normal hospitals not HCID units as all the confirmed earlier cases were.

This country's response is inept. It's all driven by the government's woeful unpreparedness and unwillingness to recognise what was coming.

"It was downgraded from a HCID in order that patients could be treated in normal hospitals not HCID units as all the confirmed earlier cases were."

There was nothing to stop patients being treated in normal hospitals AND staff having adequate PPE for the task

• except the lack of PPE

Matt Hancock was asking staff to treat PPE as a precious resource. The staff are the precious resource
I agree and I think he really shot himself in the foot with that line!

There was nothing to stop patients being treated in normal hospitals AND staff having adequate PPE for the task

I didn’t say there was. Nevertheless the ‘downgrading’ of the disease wasn’t to do with PPE. Initially it was classified as a HCID and all confirmed cases went into specialist units. Clearly as it took hold that wasn’t feasible. I’m not defending any lack of PPE but it isn’t true that the disease was reclassified because of it.

In many epidemiological studies when male v female is 2:1 it generally indicates genetic problem. It is such a significant number that there must be something going on.
refraction I agree re the false hope but if you listen to the daily briefing they are stating that the curve is flattening and not going down. A higher flattened curve will give a steady rate of infection over the next few months now the NHS is prepared. What we don’t want is Wuhans curve going back to zero cases. The fact our Covid rules are not being rigidly enforced is allowing a steady rate of infection in the less vulnerable population which is what we need to get this over and done with. If the shielded group fail to self isolate then there is nothing the government can do about this.
A family member has just lost an elderly relative to Covid who refused to self isolate. It has been a wake up call to her immediate family who were not tough enough with them from the outset.

Do they normally collect bodies from homes

I have a friend in the funeral services, works for a local big-city branch of a household name. She told me that at least two of the smaller local companies are refusing to do collections, one is a small family-run business and most of the chaps who usually ‘lift and drive’ are part timers past retirement age. Too many fall in the vulnerable group for the company to operate as normal. The other, a larger local firm with several branches are refusing to do care home or residential; pick ups unless wearing full on hazmat suits and accompanied by police. My friend’s firm cannot pick up the slack from two other companies, especially as they also have staff shortages due to self isolating and shielding etc.

Bearing that in mind I would not be at all surprised to hear that the fire brigade had been tasked with collections. IIRC in usual circumstances they only attend collections if there are access complications (ie hoarder houses) or if the deceased is morbidly obese.

My friend has been reporting a lack of PPE and necessary items for sanitation of facilities and preparation of the deceased stuck on back order since before our first local confirmed CV19 death.

Dr Anthony Fauci (US COVID Taskforce)

“You’ve got to be realistic, and you’ve got to understand that you don’t make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline.”

@BigChocFrenzy
No, they do not usually do this task.

Initially it was classified as a HCID and all confirmed cases went into specialist units.

I don’t think our government had ever really considered what would happen if the containment phase failed. Looking at the HCID documents that predate this virus, it seems that they were only really designed for handfuls of ‘imported’ cases (like our one ebola patient).

At the tail end of last year HSE published a report on PPE and the NHS and PHE signed up to implement the new, carefully tested design. I’ve certainly seen no sign of it on any NHS staff filmed or photographed, so while the downgrading of CV19 from HCID status might well be to do with the limited bed spaces in specialist units, the fact that enormous quantities of these highly specialised disposables are no longer required must’ve been a convenient side effect!

www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr1147.pdf

Wild ramblings:

If people are allowed to move freely from say 1 June to early September
as most viruses seem less virulent over summer - hopefully COVID too -

would they get a weaker / lower dose that is less dangerous ?
I've no idea

At least the health service would have greater capacity to treat cases then

I expect the UK govt would follow what most other European govts do,
as they should be all getting similar data and advice by then

But the effect of the downgrading was that medical staff had to treat patients without proper PPE, which the previous day they would have been able to demand.

Not that any medical staff can really make any demands. It's all very well to send emails telling nurses not to treat patients without the correct PPE; if someone is dying on bed and there isn't any PPE of whatever grade was decided was necessary on that particular day, there are few nurses who will say "hang on, I'll just email the department to send a few boxes down"

The weaker/lower dose thing is interesting. I was wondering whether it wasn't just viral load (or viral dose, I think is the correct term - we need larrygrylls here!), but whether getting it from a number of sources could mean getting a number of slightly different strains.

So if you get a dose from a member of your household, that's one dose. If you get it from 10 patients (as a doctor), could that not only be a multiplication of 10, but also a cocktail of slightly different viruses, with the total adding up to more than the individual parts, if that makes sense?

Oh wow how have I missed these threads so long? I've been obsessing about the data and wishing we had more information to play with- turns out it was linked to right here on MN all along.

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT stats geek)

Sat 11 April update of coronavirus trajectories
^
Daily deaths:
• US & UK still on a trend of more deaths every day^
...
cumulative deaths:
• US death toll has become the highest worldwide, topping 20,000
^
• UK curve still matching Italy’s, but death toll higher than at same stage^
...
daily new cases:
Early signs that new infections in US may be peaking
• New cases falling in four countries that acted early and decisively:
New Zealand , Australia , Norway , Austria 👏🏼
...
Cases in cumulative form:
• US has passed 500k confirmed cases
• Turkey still battling one of the world’s most severe outbreaks
< but still sending planeloads of PPE after Boris begged NATO allies - thanks, Turkey 👏🏼 >
...
subnational region daily deaths:
• Daily deaths still trending upwards in NY & London
• London’s curve still steeper than any region other than NY at this stage of its outbreak
• Signs that the curve in Paris may be flattening
....
Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY likely to have world’s highest subnational death toll within days,
and still rising faster than any other region at this stage of its outbreak
...
Small multiples for daily new deaths in 48 countries:
• Norway locked down while Sweden didn’t; Norway’s daily death toll rising much more slowly than Sweden’s
• Australia flat-ish so far...
• In Europe, Austria & Denmark faring well
....
Small multiples for daily cases in 68 countries:
• Early action in Australia & NZ; they may have turned corner early
• Austria & Norway also acted early & new cases falling
• I’m skeptical of the South African data

NewAccountforCorona, I know Ireland shut things down sooner than the U.K. but in what way is the lockdown in Ireland much more severe than the one in the U.K.?

YouGov/Imperial College study examines how well public in 13 countries are responding to COVID-19

Questions about compliance, self-isolation, washing hands, avoiding crowds, going out, touching objects
Massive changes in behaviour in such a short time - the new normal

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2020/04/11/yougovimperial-college-study-examines-how-well-pub?utmsource=twitter&utmmmedium=websitearticle&utmmcampaign=imperialwavee_1