Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

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Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

The one thing I’ve been clinging to is the low risk to children and adults with no medical conditions but sadly there seems to be quite a few younger victims of this horrible disease and that increases my anxiety as a single mum.

I reckon you might be right there, if not a bit more sostenuto.

It is sad but it is really important to remember that people of all ages die every day, both from diseases and accidents.

Although each death is a tragedy for family and friends, it cannot be a tragedy for us all, otherwise life would be utterly joyless.

If you, your family and friends are well, then enjoy the moment.

11 Friday 13th march
21 Saturday 14th
35 Sunday 15th
55 Monday 16th
71 Tuesday 17th
104 wed 18th
144 Thur 19 th
177 Friday 20th
233 Saturday 21st
281 Sunday 22nd
335 Monday 23rd
424 Tuesday 24th
465 Wednesday 25th
578 Thursday 26th
759 Friday 27th
1,028 Saturday 28 th(2pm)
1,228 Sunday 29th (2 pm and figs up till sat 5 pm)
1,415 Monday 30th
1,801 Tuesday 31st
2,352 Wednesday 1 at April
2,921 Thursday 2 nd April.
3,605 Friday 3rd April.
4313 Saturday 4th April
4,934 Sunday 5th April
5,373 Monday 6th April
6,159Tuesday 7th April.
7,097 Wednesday 8th April.
7,978 Thursday 9th April.
8,958 Friday 10th April.
9,875 Saturday 11th April

True larry but getting harder to stay positive. (Sigh).

What's to betting the brief at 5 pm will say things are looking great folks! ( Sigh)

I know Larry but I have a tiny family, me, dd and my parents both of whom are vulnerable.
I think we will exceed 20,000 as those figures aren’t including the community deaths at the moment. ONS publish them weekly I think?

Tiny family here too Zoflo.

I’ve been amazed at the last few days when they’ve talked about flattening the curve and the trends looking positive. Honestly they want people to stay indoors so treat us like grown ups and tell us straight. This isn’t going anywhere for a while, we are ahead of Italy and Spain. Stay the fuck indoors.

Returning to PPE. Donna Kinnair head of the Royal College of Nursing was interviewed on the Today Programme earlier. She said that the 19 clinicians who had died were not ITU based, where full PPE is worn, but working in other areas.

So the dead clinicians would not have been wearing full PPE kit. We don't know where they were exposed to the disease, but the likelihood is that at least some of them contracted the disease from infected patients, and not wearing PPE / adequate PPE was a contributing factor.

A further point if I may. DH & I were allowed to say goodbye to my DM two weeks ago wearing full protective gear. I am eternally grateful to the hospital ward staff for facilitating this, but I sincerely home, it wasn't to the detriment of their own supplies.

langdownso sorry for your loss.x

Langdown My sympathy for the loss of your mum 💐

Today’s numbers

@Al1Langdownthecleghole
Sorry for your loss

A1Langdownthecleghole so sorry for your loss

54% of patients with BMI under 25 get discharged from the critical care live. This compares to 46% for patients with BMI between 30 and 40 and 43% for patients with BMI over 40.

You'd need to remove the 'age' component from this.

57% of 16-24 are

The probably of that (small) difference in mortality (for healthy weight) is above 5%, to be clear.

Simple obesity is clearly NOT a significant risk factor.

Cheekyweegobshite is it possible that the guidelines for using PPE are too restrictive and are driven by a shortage rather than than proper clinical considerations?
Your example of using full PPE on a non Covid patient, are all patients treated as being Covid until a negative test result and even then still being treated as Covid it symptomatic?

I don’t want to get close to anyone outside my household these days but if I were a HCP damned sure I would want full PP if I was in close contact with people who are unwell and potentially have Covid

"there is NO statistically significant difference between BMI

Medical staff from several countries, who are used to dealing with patients of all sizes,
have been commenting that they were surprised that so many serious cases and deaths were obese

That's not scientific, any more than the reports of BAME people being especially hard hit,
but both rate proper investigation when flagged like this by medical staff

It is clear that risk increases massively with age, while there is at worst a small increase for weight.

Our ‘full PPE’ seems to be severely lacking compared to the countries who experienced SARS.

Btw looking at the latest release for England, it looks increasingly likely that 8th April will be the peak for deaths (by date of death)

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves am I misunderstanding your post? It’s the 11th today.

Thank you for the kind good wishes, but my DM very much fits into the category of died with CV19, and not died from. She had a long life, and I have been expecting her life to close for some weeks.

Not so, the clinicians, carers, teachers, bus drivers and all who have died untimely deaths.

And I am so angry today with Matt Hancock for suggesting clinicians are using PPE unnecessarily.

If no ITU staff have died, that rather suggests the protection works.