Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

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Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Is it really all that useful to see a breakdown of mortality by BMI at this precise moment? Anyone with a high BMI is not going to be able to reduce it by much in a matter of weeks.

And everyone with a high BMI is bombarded with constant messages that they are disgusting and a shocking drain on the NHS as it is.

(yes, mine is nudging 30)

It might tick up on Tuesday as people go back to work (and the even more extreme restrictions to shut down all but essential production end). But hopefully it's true that we're in the "stablisation" phase.

We would need to compare the % in the UK with each BMI class vs the % deaths in each BMI class

Yes I agree. That's exactly what I meant. I wasn't suggesting excluding those with the known at risk comorbidities and there was always going to be a correlation for higher BMI with diabetes and cardiovascular issues. But it would be interesting to see whether the risk of going into critical care or dying from covid-19 was significantly higher in overweight and obese younger people who had not yet developed those comorbidities (although it was likely they would in future).

A lot of unknowns.

Is it really all that useful to see a breakdown of mortality by BMI at this precise moment?

It's useful for researchers to better understand how the disease works. That's all.

To be fair, a friend has been complaining that one of his consultant colleagues has been wearing PPE inappropriately and not following guidelines that are set out and getting the whole team to dress similarly so say 6 of them using resources inappropriately and changing for each patient. So say 30 sets PPE gone through which would be better used elsewhere

Biggest wrong assumption - the one that is really worrying them - is that far more people than they expected stopped work if they could not WFH

It is a tricky one, isn't it? I think one of the problems is that if businesses don't have the ability to successfully implement social distancing, then they have just stopped trading instead. Our local bakery has closed for example (which is a right pain), as has the (indoor and permanent) food market.

Beyond that - people are also making assumptions about businesses being closed/unable to operate. I have a SE friend whose business is able to operate as normal, but who has had no new clients for the past 3 weeks because everyone is assuming they will be closed.

There are loads of takeaways round here that are closed too - presumably because they were not getting enough trade to make it worth opening.

So it is not just a matter of people deciding to work from home - there is also the issue of people assuming businesses aren't operating.

There's been a new article about nurses using bin bags & improvised PPE because they didn't have any, all of whom have now tested positive.

There's so many companies on Facebook making face masks with acetate sheets, OHP sheets etc to send to hospitals so they clearly don't have enough.

My old school is making masks in the DT department as are other schools.

It's great that so many are helping but it could be a better coordinated effort if it was acknowledged that there is a supply issue.

@BirdandSparrow fingers crossed for you in Spain and hoping the plateau/downward trend continues in Italy for @TheCanterburyWhales

Biggest wrong assumption - the one that is really worrying them - is that far more people than they expected stopped work if they could not WFH

It is a tricky one, isn't it? I think one of the problems is that if businesses don't have the ability to successfully implement social distancing, then they have just stopped trading instead. Our local bakery has closed for example (which is a right pain), as has the (indoor and permanent) food market.

Beyond that - people are also making assumptions about businesses being closed/unable to operate. I have a SE friend whose business is able to operate as normal, but who has had no new clients for the past 3 weeks because everyone is assuming they will be closed.

There are loads of takeaways round here that are closed too - presumably because they were not getting enough trade to make it worth opening.

So it is not just a matter of people deciding to work from home - there is also the issue of people assuming businesses aren't operating.

When it was first announced it was the most confusing message. E.G. self employed joiner ( not really essential) should they have been working? According to MN - no - but the guidelines were so ambiguous. Now we have lots of people isolating and not earning money and who will claim for furloughing of staff and for themselves being SE.

It's going to bankrupt the country!

The sensitive issue with investigating increased risk vs increased obesity is that obesity has become something for which people are blamed, often cruelly.

However, the possible increased risk needs to be investigated - without judgement - as does the possible increased risk for BAME people,
where there can obviously be no blame for being of a different race

Understanding can help mitigation or avoidance of risk

Being of mixed race, I am aware I probably need to get more sunshine than a white European, to help my immune system, so I take steps to do so, especially now in my 60s.

(When my standard tests some years ago came up deficient in D vits, my German GP didn't hand out pills, but told me to relax outside in the sun - as a gym rat, I obviously didn't need more exercise)

"Name changed for this, but I don't think he's said anything very out of line tbh."

I would need to see a reliable reference for this,
rather than an anonymous online allegation excusing Hancock's disgusting victim-blaming

NHS staff are not going to be flogging PPE on eBay when it means risking their lives in their daily work

There's been a new article about nurses using bin bags & improvised PPE because they didn't have any, all of whom have now tested positive

I saw this, it was also in the news several weeks ago. The media have run out of new bad news stories and are now recycling old ones to fill the pages. It really annoys me.

I didn't say that staff are flogging ppe on ebay. I don't think they are, I think they're scared of running out of it in a few weeks time. So they take 2 or 3 masks from the cupboard instead of 1 and stash the rest in their locker 'in case'. Trouble is that when enough people do this, it actually creates a shortage. Or staff feel safer wearing full PPE outside of situations where it is officially necessary (looking after non-covid patients for example). Again, totally understandable but can create shortages. Hence MH's comments. You're welcome to disbelieve me if you like, it makes no difference to me either way.

England 823 deaths.

"Hence MH's comments"

His comments were disgraceful victim-blaming,
to distract from his government's gross failure to provide enough PPE to NHS staff

There will always be the occasional thief or hoarder in any organisation,
but this is trivial compared to the basic problem that his govt did not provide enough PPE

The govt was asleep for weeks and did not order extra stocks of PPE in time,
or allow the budget to have enough extra in stock already

No country had enough for a 1 in 100 years epidemic,
but the govt started orders for new equipment weeks after other countries had done so

823 England
47 Scotland
Awaiting on Wales and NI.

Latest in -
823 - England
47 - Scotland.

The youngest in England was 11
The youngest with no known medical conditions was 29.

Northern Ireland and wales yet to report.

Oops cross posted

9,875 up to 5 pm yesterday full figure just given another 5234 testing positive.

This looks like a slight drop from yesterday

However, I was expecting figures to fall more during the Easter break, because at least some would have occurred on public holidays
and some data collators & admin would probably not be working

Maybe the falls will happen more over the next few days

... but then we shouldn't be too shocked by a high death toll on say Wednesday & Thursday

• that'll be partly those deaths that didn't get counted earlier

Anyone care to hazard a guess what the true rate is including community cases?

Zoflo that is so sad☹️ it's all sad😭

Where is the info of number of new cases published please?

Yes I suspect next week will be higher due to data collection over the bank holidays.

20,000