China must have majorly downplayed their figures, right?

[Louise000000]

We are now over 5,000 deaths and China just over 3,000. This isn't even possible is it, how have they managed to cover up their true numbers here?

I’m sceptical about any statistics coming out of China. They’re not exactly renowned for transparency.

Not sure I‘d trust any WHO pronouncements, either, not when it comes to China. IMO there’s a lot of desperately placatory behaviour, if not actual sucking up, from many international sources, towards China.
Trump is of course the notable exception.

I think it's becoming very obvious that they lied simply by the numbers put up by other countries. It simply isn't possible for them to have such a low number of deaths.
Pocketem those numbers will be added though, they're collected from a different source. It will take a while to sort all the administration out.
Puzzledobserver I think Italy were very badly done by, they clearly weren't prepared for such large numbers of critically ill patients.

I am not suggesting China’s Numbers are accurate, but low deaths and low numbers do not necessarily equal lying. Taiwan, for example, has a population of 24 million, 373 cases and 5 deaths. They took prompt and effective action. The tough measures which China implemented across every province could mean that their numbers in some provinces (excluding Hubei) align with Taiwan’s.

Shanghai, the difference is the outbreak started in China, they were the first to have this disease and didn’t go into lock down till the end of January, at which point it had been circulating for nearly three months. The first detected case was on the 17 November. They didn’t go into lock down until the 23 Jan.

Taiwan on the other hand started their preventative measures nearly a month before they even had their first case. And are considered the leader in how they have managed it,

There is simply no comparison between the two countries, and Totally illogical to try to compare China’s after the even measures, to Taiwan’s before the event measures and try to say that’s why China is so low. It’s totally illogical.

@Cam77

Just because you personally don't know of anyone who is infected doesn't mean there aren't still many who are. I don't know anyone infected in the UK yet thousands are.

But talk of some grand conspiracy is nonsense. The national lockdown was early, severe and almost impeccably observed

According to this article the earliest cases were around mid November. The first case according to official records was identified on the 8th December. Even by the end of December China was trying to silence medics warning about the virus, and it did not acknowledge human to human transmission until 21st January and lockdown started 23rd January- that's hardly startling early is it? Well over a month after it was discovered.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report

Bluntness
I am just thinking about my city. What is happening now and in my community does not indicate there were huge numbers of cases. My Chinese friends describe the city as back to normal. (Of course there are plenty of checks in place, but normal in terms of restaurants open, access to compounds etc ). If cases here were not low, how can the current situation be explained? It all seems impossible, yet what I see (through dh as I am not back) suggests it is possible. When I look back to how things were at the end of January it is weird that under 2.5 months later we have this sense of ‘normality’. Weird and illogical indeed and I don’t mean that in a sarcastic way. It is really hard explain what has happened here.

The thing is there are many accusations you could aim at China, but being inefficient or incompetent is simply not one of them.

China has some hugely populated cities, and looking at the death rate and the time line till they took their very efficient actions, it simply begs the question why the Chinese population was not hit as hard as other countries, particularly when its factored in how long they had the virus before they knew.

As such, they are either incompetent and they record their Covid deaths in different way to the rest of the world, and have failed to say so, or the number of deaths is not being revealed.

Potentially because at the time China didn’t wish to admit the scale of the problem that had been unleashed on the world, and then found it too difficult to say “yup we didn’t give you the whole picture, sorry”.

I think they are genuinely trying to help the world now. I don’t doubt that for one moment, they are doing what they can with supplies, research etc.

But clearly the statistics beg the question on why their numbers are so low in comparison to the rest of the world when arguably, due to it taking them by surprise as it was a new disease they didn’t know about, they were least prepared when they found out, why they have seen a relatively low health impact.

What is happening now and in my community does not indicate there were huge numbers of cases

But this makes no sense, there is no doubt lock down was successful. That’s not the discussion and it’s not about your city alone. It’s about the big populated ones and why with the disease circulating for three months prior to lock down there was such a low impact on the population.

Our figures are entirely in line with China. Its just we fucked it up and they didnt.

China sat on it hard and fast with the resources the size of Europe to support and area the size of italy.

We were/are slow, disorganised and still working on herd immunity (everyone will get it).

China worked on ensuring as few people were exposed as possible tracking every single contact of every single case.

We dont even test everyone who potentially has it. Let alone everyone they have been in contact with.

Really
So China has half the deaths per million of South Korea?
10% of Germany?
Less than 1% of Spain and Italy

China also found two strains one more mild, one more severe. The more time the virus us around the more chanxe it has to mutate to something worse. WHO have been hammering on about this since the start

Bluntness
I live in a city of 8 million, which is not small, even by Chinese standards.
I realise it’s not just about my city.

If we are not testing properly or if countries lie about cases and deaths, how will we know when we hit the peak or it's in decline? That's why the China figures matter - if countries aren't transparent, it could still be out there causing a second wave when everyone thinks it's safe to go back to school/work etc.

As long as the way deaths are being recorded remains consisted we will know when we hit the peak and decline as this will be reflected in the deaths. It doesn’t matter whether the recorded deaths represent 100% or Covid deaths or 5% of Covid deaths so long as the proportion remains consistent.

Randomised community testing is important that to give an idea of true mortality and if this is remaining consistent and to establish whether there is any immunity building up in the population and if so whether it would be enough to end lockdown.

I wouldn't believe anything that comes out of China. It's absolutely obvious they are lying ( they arrested the Dr who first reported the virus). I have no time for them in the way they treat animals and babies who are dumped for being girls or having a handicap.

China sat on it hard and fast

No they didnt. It was circulating three months before they locked down.

China also found two strains one more mild, one more severe

No they haven’t, the mutation is so minor as to make them say they can’t even call them mutations realistically and there is no substantive difference in the fatality rate. They only now have found a different strain which they think has mutated and is akin to the common cold.

Shanghai, yes, it is sizeable but clearly not comparable to other major cities.

The 21+ million inactive mobile phone numbers in China since Dec/Jan is rather ominous.

Interesting, as pp said, that this is around 1% of their total population. Grim.

Another ridiculous anti-China conspiracy theory. Many people in China have more than one mobile phone connection, for example using one for work and one for personal, or using one in a coverage area for one company and another in a different area that is better covered by another carrier. That's why dual-SIM phones are so popular in China whereas they are practically unknown in the West. With the lockdown and people not going out at all, people will have allowed their second connection to lapse as it is not needed.

Forgot pic

China never went for a herd immunity plan to deliberately allow 60% of their population to get infected

China provided adequate PPE for their healthcare workers and masks for their general population

China built two new hospitals in a week

Fed up of all the China bashing. Yes their figures may be dodgy but they've handled this better than the West**

Yes. China also had a much more aggressive treatment policy where people went to hospital. I think we are going to find out that early intervention and offering oxygen support early helps to avoid icu ventilation in a lot of cases but the policy in this country of only allowing people in hospital if they are almost dying (excluding Boris Johnson and rich/famous people of course) will end up costing a lot of lives

Fed up with all the China bashing
I suggest you get used to it then. It really isn't going to just go away. People aren't that gullible.
And even if they are, there are sources within China that are speaking out, at great risk to themselves, no doubt. Should their voices not be heard?

By all means hear their voices, but the pushing of unfounded conspiracy theories based on a lack of understanding of China (the SIM/mobile connection theory), and characterisations of Chinese people as shifty, untrustworthy, psychopathic and uncaring about death etc is flat out racist. The language used in this thread would never have been allowed if it was talking about say Israel, but somehow Chinese people are fair game for racism

Yes, China policy was the opposite to the uk: we were informed it was mandatory to go to the hospital if we had any symptoms and there would be legal consequences if we did not do this.
Hence all the pictures of massive queues in Chinese hospitals.
All private clinics were closed to ensure that hospital visits could not be circumvented.

pocket I think its the Chinese govt that most of us are angry with, not the people.

It's not racist to hate a cruel regime.

It's not racist to not beleive the data coming out of China.

And I think it's fair to see that the discussions that can be had here about the Chinese govt and most importantly the British govt (since Mumsnet is based in UK) would never be allowed in China.

characterisations of Chinese people as shifty, untrustworthy, psychopathic and uncaring about death etc

Who said that?? I hope you reported the comment.