Has it peaked?

[Autumnwindinthewillows]

The death rate is definitely reducing - could this be a good sign that things will get back to normal sooner rather than later?

CoffeeandPainting
7
Because dicks are still going out treating it like a holiday

Maybe we need to ask ourselves why. Perhaps their lives are a relentless grind - stuck in a small flat, working all hours for not much reward and this actually is a holiday.

Nope

@nolovelost, you're welcome. Let's hope it's (close to) peaking.

Nope 100%.

Work in social care. I receive reports every day from our local care homes . More and more people dying every day. These deaths arent reported in the official figures.

Which peak though? New cases will probably peak in the next week or two but death peak will be 2-3 weeks after that surely?

We're unlikely to see the effects of the lock down on the death rates until late April.

They clearly say on the news, virtually every day, that the rates are generally lower on a Sunday and Monday because there isn't as many resources to report figures over the weekend.

Are we honestly going to have to have a thread every single day asking if it's peaked??

I think we need to wait quite a few days to see. I really hope we have flattened the peak but like others have said “it’s too soon to get excited”. There seems to be a pattern of the number of cases dropping at the weekend so we could possibly see a high increase tomorrow.

After all the idiocy in parks, beaches and seaside walks this weekend, numbers will probably start going straight back up next week...

Given incubation periods, no, the peak will be at least a few weeks away.

No. Come back in 2 weeks. Maybe we will have a fuller picture. See chart above from hannah for more details.

I think I am right in saying that Scotland is changing the way statistics are collected so The
FM has hinted that numbers will increase later this week. She has frequently stressed that the true numbers are higher than reported .

Sturgeon noted at the weekend that the numbers are skewed at the weekend and she expected them to rise over the week.

Mondays are often lower plus they won't include Scotland's figure. Scotland only reported 2 deaths due to a change in the way they are reporting. The figures will now be taken from NRS figures are at present they are only a Monday to Friday operation so we won't see scotlands figures filter through until Tuesday/Wednesday. The plan is to change NRS to a 7 day a week operation.

If you look here you can download spreadsheets which show which hospitals the deaths have occurred in. Its updated.
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

the figures reported today were for yesterday

No the figures are for the new deaths that were on record yesterday. This will be more likely to reflect a couple of days ago. It takes time for registers to be updated.

Yes

Because dicks are still going out treating it like a holiday

Have I missed something though? End of last week the news was full of “oh everyone will flock to the beach” but, apart from a report from one area, I haven’t seen anything that suggests it was the huge problem as predicted. Were the beaches and parks all full everywhere and I’ve missed the reporting of it?

I'm sure I read that the death rate drops over the weekend because there are less officials working and able to record cause of death.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

Almost every police force reported that the rules were well respected yesterday, despite the good weather. Why are people so determined to insist they weren't?

You should know better than to post good news or optimistic questions on here. Only doom, doom, death and more doom is allowed

Yes to this!!!

Op, I don't believe we've reached the peak yet no, but any drop in figures is a good thing and eventually it'll become more sustained trend and we'll have turned a corner.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#Statistics

This link has uk information. a few graphs and a table that sets out numbers over the days so you can see the growth and the pattern (like dips at the weekend.

There's a model by Professor Gupta of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford University that thinks that by now 50% of the population will have had it.

I can't link to the Financial Times because it's a paywall but it can be googled if anyone's hasn't already seen it.

Seems to be a bit up in the air as to which experts are right.

Nope it's going to get much much worse before it gets better, sadly