Has it peaked?

[Autumnwindinthewillows]

The death rate is definitely reducing - could this be a good sign that things will get back to normal sooner rather than later?

They said Yesterday (or the day before, i'm not sure) that the reason for the dip in the mortality rate was due to a different way of counting the deaths. I couldn't find out exactly what that meant but that was the reason they gave for the drop.

So no, I doubt we are near the peak. Not at least until May.

It's hardly peaked yet, with all those idiots going out all the time. We're in for a huge shock, I think.

Some people on here don't like it that the death rate has gone down, they love telling other posters that at peak it will be 1000's a day I think some posters would be disappointed if we didn't follow Italy.

Peak will be Easter Sunday at the earliest.

@Bathroom12345 - some of the people dying of coronavirus would have died of something else this year anyway.
It won't be for quite a while that we will actually be able to see the "excess deaths" over what would normally occur in a year.
There will be other deaths too, not from coronavirus but because of it - for example because the NHS is overwhelmed, other people won't be able to get care.

@MorrisZapp someone with logic! Miraculous. Agree with you.

It's hard in the middle of an epidemic to calculate the excess death rate , perhaps up to half only had a year or so left

Although I think someone who would have lived through the summer might still be upset at losing those months!

Don't be ridiculous, @ToThePub. There are people on here who can't visit elderly parents in nursing homes and won't be with them when they die. There are others with partners or children working in the NHS and they fear for their lives. Don't be so fucking stupid as to say we want the numbers to be higher.

1. deaths in the community not being reported - significant numbers,

2. the trend is affected by delays in agreeing the reporting of deaths from days and weeks ago.

3. even if the data were good, there might be an interesting double peak in some other countries (unless that is an artifact).

4. the death rate will be affected if/when ITU gets stuffed and the up to 100% of patients who can't get ventilated die soon rather c50-90% of patients die up to a few weeks later.

on the ground here in the community and acute, it still looks like it's ramping up. hope I'm wrong.

If the so called "experts" can't answer this, I'm sure us average mortals can't.

The daily figures are not currently accurate for the last 24 hours, there are delays in reporting, sometimes over a week. We will only see over time where the peak.

Probably not, not peak for deaths at least, because they’re the last figure to drop. Possibly there with hospital admissions.
Hopefully have passed the peak with new infections per day, if lockdown has worked, although we can’t really tell that.

Is it the deaths in the community that aren't counted at the weekend / after the weekend?

I do wonder if they may be on the downturn because some of us decided to lockdown ourselves at home before the Govt made us. I know in our case we were very careful doing any shopping , we didn't socialise for around 2 weeks before we went on lockdown.

Doubt it.

It would obviously be great if there was a downtown but we had this conversation last week on Monday after the numbers from the weekend came out and the week before...
Even at the press conference today they said numbers tend to drop/flatten after the weekend so we can’t describe it as a downturn.

Unfortunately as we haven’t hit peak yet they should start to go up again tomorrow and for the rest of the week. I’d love to be wrong though....

nolovelost, in England, patients in the community are not being tested and AFAIK, deaths in the community are not being counted. We're told that deaths might be counted in a future statistical reconciliation exercise IF COVID is stated on the death certificate. This might be why Scotland think their figures will include COVID deaths in the community but, without testing, death certificates generally don't in this part of England.

I took dd out of school three days before they closed and loads of her classmates were gone before that. We had locked ourselves down a week before it was official. Hopefully others did too but sadly I do think it's going to get worse before it gets better.

I took dd out of school three days before they closed

Me too. I took DD out a week before as she’s really high risk. Her guidance teacher said there were 500 pupils missing 3 days before they closed, from a roll of about 1400.

Doubt it.

This fall is potentially significant.

Any news with fewer people dying is good, but if we continue to see this downward trend over a number of days there is a chance the lockdown has been more successful than we hoped. Let's see.

Yes, we don’t really know what effect pre-lockdown interventions like encouraging everyone to wfh and encouraging whole households to quarantine for 14 days have had. No way to tell that yet. Hopefully greater than nothing.

At this point anyone on here confidently proclaiming when the peak will be or how many deaths there’ll be a day at that point is just guessing. My best prediction would be peak deaths by Easter weekend and then a week of a plateau and then deaths falling, but I’m just guessing too.

@Zilla1 thank you

Nope. The worst is yet to come.

mondays have always been lower figures, dont get your hopes up