Lockdown will end sooner than later

[Mumlove5]

Let’s hope the government will listen to the economists. A balance needs to be created.

I honestly do not think Boris will stand for a longterm lockdown. He wants to get back to normality ASAP.

Plus, infection rates are slowing in Europe🙏🏻

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/05/behind-scenes-boris-johnsons-gang-becoming-riven-infighting/

“It’s a false argument that we are either going to save lives or save the economy,” said Sir Iain, a former Work and Pensions Secretary. “We are talking about saving lives right now versus saving lives in the future because people have got jobs to go back to, and a strong economy that can raise enough taxes to pay for the NHS.”

Yet when does the crossover point come when the Government has to start prioritising the economy above all else? “I’d say we have until the end of this month,” added Mr Duncan Smith. “We have a chance of saving the economy if we are out of this in three weeks but much longer and businesses won’t be able to be resurrected and charities will go under. And then we will see real suffering. We get this done, we flatten the curve and we get back to normal.”

TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince

I am the same about coming out of lock down too soon, makes me want to cry. So yes peoples mental health is different

I agree OP but this is the wrong forum for common sense. Various bods on MN will not be happy unless we lockdown indefinitely. What these people don’t seem to realise is that we need tax income to pay for the NHS. They also seem blissfully unaware of the links between poverty and ill-health/premature deaths. The extreme response to this pandemic WILL kill more than it saves. Anybody with even a vague understanding of the intense chain reactions we are already witnessing around the world will be able to understand that.

I haven't read all the posts but I am not sure why the economists are presenting this as some kind of dramatic showdown. The peak is anticipated in a week, say, so in 3 weeks there might be a more manageable situation and this is basically what Jenny Harries announced would happen. There would then be a phased return to normal, was the hope and the intention, based on scientist's analysis. I think more analysis of how the economy will operate in a phased return would be more useful - clearly some industries/lines of work will be more affected long term than others with a phased return, and thinking through what measures are needed industry by industry would be better than melodramatic unhelpful articles. Some kind of recognition of how utterly heartbreaking this has been for normal human beings - seeing field hospitals and make shift morgues - along with some sensible calm analysis of how a phased return would work and what we could do differently to keep things under control and if there were a second wave, would be good.

A few promises re the NHS would be nice too.

Are there any stats out that show the percentage of people still in active employment

and the percentage of those furloughed/zero hours/UC ?

There may be a greater balance than we realise - especially across the age range.

I’m not sure people are understanding how monumental this situation is akin to WW2. Of course we’re heading for a depression but there isn’t an alternative. The maths of those requiring hospital care is just too huge. The virus doesn’t care about the economy etc. Even those calling for things to go back to normal will swiftly change tune when bodies pile up in streets. Do the maths. Yes we’ll be paying this off for years but there isn’t a choice. It’s an unprecedented crisis not something that’s going to quietly disappear until a vaccine.

There is quite a bit of romanticising the post war period here.

Who is going to finance the Marshall Plan this time? China?

Ah yes, Iain Duncan-Smith, that eminent economist and epidemiologist. He of the £30 lunch claim and the policies targeted at the most vulnerable in society. A man incredibly qualified to predict the course of COVID-19 in the UK. He must be listened to.

I prefer to look at the measures my employer (NHS) is taking and how serious they think it is going to be. But what do they know? They're only doctors and scientists...

hopsalong - I think your list on people dying because of lockdown is somewhat confused. I’m not sure why you think someone dying because of a breast lump is more likely in lockdown than it would be because the country hasn’t locked down but has instead let the health service become completely overwhelmed with sick people needing hospital admission. Are you actually arguing that all that is needed is a bit more ruthlessness on the part of medics, and people like Boris Johnson, who are somewhat overweight, occasional smokers and clearly not the fittest specimins, should be turned away?

Do you seriously think the kids will be back in school and I’ll be taking my toddler to swimming lessons in three weeks’ time

Why do you think lock down ending is the same as all restrictions being lifted. And keep posting it? How can you not know that restrictions will be lifted slowly?

Yes it’s likely depending on age of your kids your kids will be back in school in the next month or so. Although as your an nhs nurse I’m assuming you’ve a partner at home caring for them, so likely if one parent still at home then the kids will be too, or if they are over a certain age and able to be left alone.

No it’s not likely you’ll be going swimming or to Pizza Hut. Because like other countries restrictions will be lifted slowly to allow the economy to get back on its feet somewhat, but clearly things like gyms, pubs, swimming pools, restaurants etc will remain closed much longer,

No one is suggesting that we will be back to normal in three weeks for goodness sake. What they are saying is lock down will end. That’s not the same as we will be back to normal.

All those wishfully thinking lockdown will end next week or restrictions lifted before the summer... it's a simple case of the numbers. There is no cure, and no vaccine appearing for 18 months, say the scientists. We don't even have enough tests or antibody tests to start managing and loosening restrictions and the 100k Hancock has promised by end of April will need to be used on the frontline workers and most vulnerable patients. Therefore, there is simply no way of reducing restrictions on the general population until the peak starts significantly reducing (the top of the peak is still 3 weeks away so another 6 weeks after that to reduce back to old levels, would look like mid-late June?)

And after that, (as outlined in the Imperial College report) of course as soon as restrictions are lifted cases will start to go up again (because there's no vaccine) and they will need to manage the numbers of cases versus the capacity in ICU, so there will need to be numerous 3 week phases of lock down introduced throughout the Autumn and into 2021, allowing us a short stint of freedom (and more cases to be spread) followed by another stint of lockdown (to manage ICU numbers) and so on, and so on, to control the burden on the NHS and keep numbers bubbling under full capacity. See the attached diagram from that report.

My understanding is, that unless a cure or vaccine appears sooner there is no way this can change.

If the number of test kits rapidly increases over the summer, then they will gradually be able to start managing the economy better by allowing certain people back to work. But on an individual level if you are vulnerable, elderly, have respiratory conditions, are pregnant, have a newborn etc you are not going to want to emerge at all until a vaccine or cure has been found.

This is not me being unnecessarily pessimistic, a response that some people have suggested is rife on MN - it's just listening to what the scientists say. I would rather have a realistic if unappealing outlook of the next year so that I can manage my own expectations. I am in fact optimistic in the longer term - we will get through this. But it IS going to take time.

I agree with the PP who said we can’t compare the UK to Austria.

The OP says Austria and Denmark are planning their lifting of lockdown, but they have had around 200 total deaths in each country. It’s very different to our situation.

So its not the Doctors that will save us, it will be the economists. Very interesting.

For some of us this has been a double hit business wise. We import from China but although our products were made they could not be shipped although we have paid in full. Therefore we had no stock to sell to our customers. The containers should be on their way here now but if they arrived the English ports will fine us massively for leaving our containers there even though we cannot get transporters to bring them to us. All the while the warehouse still needs to be paid for. The only saving grace is that we don't employ anyone.
It's a nightmare for all of us but lockdown is needed and will go on for a few more weeks sadly. The alternative is thousands of people dying a painful death at home due to the NHS being overwhelmed with critical cases.

The OP says Austria and Denmark are planning their lifting of lockdown, but they have had around 200 total deaths in each country. It’s very different to our situation.

Except Austria has a population of around eight million, and the UK is over sixty. Denmark is a bit over 6.

Unfortunately the majority of mumsnet are absolutely loving all of this and would prefer it if the government nailed our front doors shut

This is so, so true.

I think London is predicted to reach its peak in about a week. We're probably a couple of weeks behind that in Scotland. By the start of May, hopefully we'll be over the worst of the rapid increase in cases.

From there on in it's about managing the spread of the virus within the limits of the NHS. So perhaps schools won't be back until August/September. But potentially they could allow places like restaurants, drive-thrus, coffee shops to open again. Still banning bigger gatherings, festivals, sporting occasions, concerts. And if things start to get out of hand, another lockdown for a bit to relieve pressure.

Maybe by the summer holidays, we'll be told that it's OK to go on holiday elsewhere in the UK, while carrying on with the hand washing and staying away from crowds.

All of that is mostly your choice - apart from going back to work. The government are not going to frog march you to Costa, McDonalds or Nandos should you wish to remain barricaded in your under the stairs cupboard until Christmas.

People like me who struggle through the dark, miserable days of November, December and January live for this time of year with the light, the evenings where you can get out and do things. Keep me locked up until September and i'd be suicidal with the thought of another long, dark, cold winter ahead with fading light and no memories of a light, bright summer. That's just too horrendous to contemplate.

Would you all really send your kids back to school in 3 weeks time if the government said so?
I bloody wouldn't and I would be shocked at those who would that have a choice about this.

Do you seriously think the kids will be back in school and I’ll be taking my toddler to swimming lessons in three weeks’

I don't think that everything is going to go back to normal in exactly three weeks at all.

But I think if we get past the peak, restrictions will be lifted gradually, bit at a time.

Even those calling for things to go back to normal will swiftly change tune when bodies pile up in streets. Do the maths.

Yes but equally these dedicated key workers (who are doing a marvellous job and should be supported) may not be so dedicated when there is no more money to pay them. There is no getting away from the fact a balance must be struck.

People like me who struggle through the dark, miserable days of November, December and January live for this time of year with the light, the evenings where you can get out and do things. Keep me locked up until September and i'd be suicidal with the thought of another long, dark, cold winter ahead with fading light and no memories of a light, bright summer. That's just too horrendous to contemplate.

I hear you.

I'm guessing the healthy elderly feel this even more poignantly.

Can't see it happening anytime soon with the south acting like twats everytime the sun comes out.
I think we will have a new normal, not the one people seem to think.

I bloody wouldn't and I would be shocked at those who would that have a choice about this

Not everyone has the luxury of choice, or can afford to not work. Some people can’t afford to lose their jobs, and don’t have alternate child care.

PMSL laughing at OP discussing economists then quoting Telegraph and, even funnier, IDS. Can't wait to read back up analysis by the Daily Mail.

There has been a little analysis of the economic implications of different ways of handling pandemics [spoilers - "But early and aggressive interventions both saved lives and triggered a faster rebound in several measures, such as job growth and banking assets."] Now I know everything is different and the Federal Reserve and MIT won't carry as much weight as IDS and the Telegraph, OP but in case you are interested - papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

is there really a pinprick of light at the end of the corona tunnel??

Zilla this report compares the Spanish Flu intervention, which disproportionately targeted young healthy men, to the covid19 intervention, which disproportionately targets the old and the infirm.

Obviously the economic impacts will be apples and oranges.

"Sir Iain, a former Work and Pensions Secretary"

Are you seriously putting your trust in Smith?