What is the true story?

[Namechangervaver]

Hancock has said he has lost two people close to him.

Somebody I know has died.

Boris has been hospitalised.

The country has been shut down despite us knowing that to do this will cripple us for years to come, so it's a very serious situation.

A small fraction of our population is supposedly affected but I'm guessing we all know people hospitalised or dead.

This is obviously so much worse than we have been told

I know 2 people who have been confirmed, one only mild symptoms and fine now and the other slightly worse but not the worst thing they’ve had. We will probably never get to learn the true numbers though if those that died with it and those who died as a direct result of. That would really show the severity but we just don’t know when both are counted

I’m in the NW and thankfully don’t personally know anyone who has had CV19.

A friend of a friend has sadly died from it but I have never met that person. I understand he was infected whilst on holiday in Spain and had a few underlying health issues

To counterbalance the conspiracy theories, I know two people who have had it. One with asthma, one with an autoimmune condition. Both had unpleasant symptoms, both recovered without medical intervention.

TBH, it quite pisses me off seeing people doom-monger and theorise about hordes of secret dead people based on anecdotes. It's just making it worse for those who are badly affected by hearing such stories.

I don't know any one personally who has had it.

I don't think it's worse than we've been told either though, turning airports into morgues, building new hospitals, it's pretty obvious isn't it?

It makes sense most people know someone who has had it and even someone who has died. This is because even tiny percentages are big numbers at a population level. Plus people are bias towards hearing about it... For example I have been told of colleagues relatives who have died from it when normally their passing wouldn't have been mentioned.

Don't forget when you start including colleagues relatives etc your "social circle" probably includes thousands of people.

The overall death rate will probably be similar to flu. It's just that no one has any pre existing immunity towards covid19. Flu deaths aren't reported with such media hype (or at all) and they also tend to be more spread across the whole winter season.

The media wasn't being cruel saying it only kills old/vulnerable. The statistics from everywhere bear this out. You are far more likely to die if over 80, male or have a preexisting condition. This is why those groups need to self isolate or shield.

@FatKate

It would be interesting to know how many of those are a result of isolation and not Covid-19. People seem to think lockdown comes with no cost to lives.

FIL in hospital with confirmed CV now, been in since Tuesday. Doing well, he's 74 had 2 strokes a few years ago so we feared the worse. He's off oxygen and kicking off this morning to come home so reckon he will be OK.

Apparently 3 people have died over the last few days from our large village. 2 confirmed but 1 I am not sure of. 1 a man in his mid 50s the other 2 in their 60s.

Also 1 of dhs workmates had a strange virus in February that absolutely floored him. He's a fit, strong bloke in his mid 50s and never takes time off. Was off 10 days and took 3 weeks to recover.

I think the only people who think this is "worse than we were told" either weren't listening or dismissed it as "just flu" or not that serious.
They are now getting a shock.

I've long thought that surely way more people are or have been infected than the number of confirmed cases. Otherwise it's a bit of a coincidence that famous people like BJ and Prince Charles got it when supposedly there were only a few cases around.

Not because of any deliberate coverup but just because we don't test everyone.

It made the idea of trying to contain the virus and stop it spreading seem obviously futile - by the time we were aware of and responding to one case the virus was obviously many steps ahead.

Now we're on nationwide restrictions it's less of an issue. Though when testing capacity is available, I'd like to see a decent random sample done, to get some idea of how many people have really had Covid-19. I'll bet it's 10 to 100 times what the confirmed cases count would suggest.

I dont personally know anyone who has it. If you look on the covid daily self report tracker app, my area is guessed as 4% infection rate so its quite low still.theres 96% possibly of it going up I guess yet.

Yes it's bad. How bad? Only looking back years down the line will say.

But looking at worldometers it's not even denting the population explosion. Yet

In what way do you think it’s far worse or more serious? They’ve already said that for each death they reckon 1000 people have it so that’s millions already. We already know that the measures we have are to stop 80% of us getting it and half a million people dying within a short time period. That all sounds pretty dire to me. What do you think we aren’t being told over and above that?

I don’t know them personally but I know of two people that have been hospitalised (friends uncle and brothers colleague) and then a relative of my partner has unfortunately passed away from it the other day. I’m in the north west also.

I know where you’re coming from OP. I didn’t expect to know of anyone who died, based on the statistics.. not sure why, seems silly now.

And why does it only make sense now that they’re willing to risk the economy? It was obvious as soon as they announced the measures to support workers and businesses that that was the case and that was a few weeks ago.

I don’t think they’re lying about numbers though. I just think they aren’t testing nearly enough so our numbers are messed up.

I have a pretty wide social circle, but don't personally know anyone who has died or been hospitalized. I don't actually know anyone with a confirmed case, though I do know a number of people who think they've had it. DD knows a couple of kids who have apparently lost grandparents to the illness.

I think a lot depends on where you live tbh. We don't live in London or Birmingham, and neither do many of our friends/family. Inevitably, there will be clusters in certain areas, and those who live in those areas are more likely to feel the effects. That may change as time goes on, and as the virus spreads more around the country.

I don't know anybody with it, or even suspected of having it, I know of one person who tested negative and I definitely don't know anyone who died.

A small fraction of our population is supposedly affected but I'm guessing we all know people hospitalised or dead.

This is demonstrably untrue.

Current deaths are around 5,000 so that's one per 16,500 people. Generously assuming everyone 'knows' 100 people, that still means only about 500,000 or one in about every 130 people know someone who has died.

Around 15% of those hospitalised die, so I would assume that something around 30,000 people have been hospitalised so around 3,000,000 or one in every 20 people know someone in their wider circle who has been hospitalised.

Again, those are all based on a circle of 100, you could reduce it by five-fold to include only close friends and family (20 seems about right).

I'm in London and all I'm aware of is the father of my tablemates from school quiz night has died. I'm not sure she would count as one of my one hundred in my above illustration, she's more one degree of separation.

I have a family member in their early 50s on a ventilator, and know 2 people who have lost grandparents very quickly to it. I also know of 4 deaths of grandparents and 1 parent from my (rather large) secondary school. I also know of colleagues confirmed with it, although they are now recovering at home after a scary 10 days or so.

I’m in the South East but a deprived area.

Not hearsay. A lovely couple that we have known for over 30 years, totally devoted to each other, the lady cared for my mum for many years.

She was in hospital having (another) part of her leg removed - she has cellulitis - and was recovering well but contracted CV in the hospital. She died in a matter of days, her husband and family never saw her again. Her husband committed suicide which surprised no one as he’d always said he wouldn’t go on without her.

Maybe CV killed her or maybe it didn’t but it did prevent her husband, children and grandchildren from being able to say goodbye and I think that’s the really cruel part of it.

My experience so far accords with what we've been told. I know about 5 people who have probably had it (not tested, but all the classic symptoms). Ages 30 - 65. 3 recovered fine, one felt terrible and was called an ambulance but they wouldn't send one (!) - she is now fine though. One man in his 60s in intensive care (he was tested). Another man in his 60s recovered within 4 days, and was well enough to read books etc while ill.

I suppose one day they will work out why some people are badly affected and others not.

It's not about capacity when it comes to testing how many people have had it - no such test exists. We can only test to see if someone actively has it. They might contract the disease hours later.

And there weren't only a few cases around when Boris and Prince Charles got it, there were tens of thousands and they're people who would have been in contact with hundreds of people in the preceding weeks so highly likely to be exposed.

There is a line however of people who die of Covid and people who die with Covid. Some people with severe pre-existing conditions may have died of said condition but also had Covid at the time of death. Who know how this effects the numbers. This happened to a friend's dad who was terminally ill and died last week. No one knows if he died of Covid (which a test proved he had) or whether of his pre-existing condition. He'd only been given days to live as it was and had been in hospital for some time. But it did mean that he was unable to have his family with him when he died which has been heart-breaking and their last contact was via a nurses's mobile phone which the nurse kindly put on speaker near to him.

Seems like the party started at 2am and I missed it!

My friends is an ICU doctor and she said it's absolutely crazy how busy things are right now and how many sick people there are. My other doctor friend said they (doctors) believe the 'only test the vulnerable' is a way of the government trying to lessen official statistics and stop mass panic and rioting. Lord knows.

Having said that I know of 3 people who have died (not covid related) but the family just signed them as covid so they could get the body released quicker. This too will have an affect on stats.

Regardless I think everyone knows this is extremely serious and since this is something new, the government too are out of their depth. All we can do is eat well, drink well and take vitamins etc to try and boost our immune systems as best as possible (and stay firmly seated at home of course!).

Apparently it depends on the amount of virus you’re infected with that decides whether it’ll be mild or severe, which would explain a lot as it seems to vary so much between people.

alloutoffucks I have a wide social circle having lived in 6 counties in the UK and 4 European countries.
I know 3 people who died in their 20’s in car accidents (one was my brother). One of a heart attack while playing football (undiagnosed heart condition). One of lung cancer in her early 20’s (died 3 weeks after diagnosis). Another of testicular cancer which spread.
I know 7 people who have had diagnosed CV19 (so severe enough to be tested). 6 recovered, including a 91 year old man who was in intensive care but now at home. One (lady in her 60’s) currently fighting for her life on a ventilator.
Of course it’s serious. As soon as China started to shut down that was obvious. No one wants to risk their economy in that way if they can help it.