What is the true story?

[Namechangervaver]

Hancock has said he has lost two people close to him.

Somebody I know has died.

Boris has been hospitalised.

The country has been shut down despite us knowing that to do this will cripple us for years to come, so it's a very serious situation.

A small fraction of our population is supposedly affected but I'm guessing we all know people hospitalised or dead.

This is obviously so much worse than we have been told

@PieceOfMaria It’s 1-3% of the people who have been tested, most of whom are already very ill at that point.

No, the death rate in the UK as a proportion of people that have been tested is around 10% hence estimates being 1-3% when you account for the people who have had it and not been tested.

They're digging graves near my city, for people who're still living atm, but not for long

Our death rate from recorded cases is far higher than 1-3%, but we dont test most cases.

Remdesivir, chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine. Maybe the trials aren't going well, which is a shame.
www.pharmatimes.com/news/gilead_starts_late-stage_trials_in_the_uk_of_potential_covid-19_therapy_1334148

This is obviously so much worse than we have been told

Not sure how much worse you think it is op? We know it's serious, we know it can kill. What is it exactly that we're not being told?

The worrying figure is the number of ventilated patients who have died. In Italy, it was about 50-50, but much higher in the UK.

Why I don't know. Perhaps because you had to be extremely ill to be put on one because we don't have as many as Italy? The NHS has been severely underfunded since the Coalition Govt. Italy, by all accounts, has a v good health system and people were surprised by the way it was overwhelmed in Lombardy.

There's a disturbing piece in the Mail Online from a doctor about the tick sheet she now has to use before ventilating. The chances of recovery have to be much higher than previous practice.

Italy told us that it was not just elderly, healthy people die too they just survive with it longer. The media have to say 'underlying health conditions' for patient confidentiality.

@BigChocFrenzy

"Those present say it was “herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”."

So there was no proof Cummings himself said this.

@alloutoffucks

You've just breached FT copyright.

In NYC, New Orleans and Detroit, the rates at which individuals acquire CV19 and die from CV19, are much higher in deprived areas than more affluent areas. I assume that it will be a similar pattern everywhere. The probability of knowing someone who has been hospitalized or died is going to depend quite heavily on your income level.

@Thymeout

"He was close to Cummings and played a prominent role in the Vote Leave campaign"

Voting leave does not mean they want old people to die.

Haven't we been told that more old people voted leave? They'd hardly want to kill their core supporters, would they?

I dont know anyone who has/had it to date. There arent any cases in my lancashire town so far. I think it depends where you live.

The journo who reported what Cummings said is highly trusted and respected. He made it clear that those weren't Cumming's actual words, but the feeling of his words - it's what the people present took away from the meeting.

Cummings of course, like Boris, is now reportedly suffering from CV. And CUmming's uncle has just died from it. I feel Cummings (and Boris) is closer to the virus than they had originally expected to be. I feel they thought this would happen to "other people".

And nobody said Cummings wanted old people to die - just that the deaths of a few pensioners was collateral damage, and not worth risking the economy over. Dom then had the "domoscene" moment, and realised (from the Imperial College model) that the number of sick and dying resulting from their policy would overwhelm the NHS completely - and they turned away from the herd immunity thing, and brought in the lockdown.

Remdesivir, chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine. Maybe the trials aren't going well, which is a shame.

Maybe they need a bit more time! Yes two antivirals havent been of much use but the main hope is remdesivir but that works by preventing the virus multiplying so it needs to be given very early on to be of much use and theres very little of that drug around.

Hydroxychloroquine has been of use and it sees according to one trial to work better when an antibotic is added in least thats what the French lab that did the trials have said, but there were a few holes in that trail however that threapy is being tried in major UK hospitals right now so we shall have to wait and see what the results are!.

I’m not sure I understand your point though, about this being ‘much worse’ than we’ve been told. We’ve been told it will be very very bad and it is. The whole country has shut down. That doesn’t happen lightly. It’s not as if there’s been a cover up, is it?

This. We were told from the start - 1 in 5 people with this require hospital treatment (though I doubt that ratio are actually getting treatment in this country) and 1 in 30 will die from it. With odds like that, of course lots of people know of many who've been hospitalised or died.

It's not that we haven't been told how bad it is or can be, it's that people continue to underestimate it despite the warnings.

I think it is a mix of people underestimating the severity of the virus, but i think the poor reporting of true numbers/testing is in part to blame for this.

For example numbers in my area (nw town) seem lower than other areas, yet in my 1.5 form entry school one member of staff has been hospitalised (confirmed case), 7 members of staff have had more the ‘mild’ flu-like symptoms and five of us have had it so badly we couldn’t even stand without falling. We were all told to manage at home but I have never felt so ill in my life and have been hospitalised for less in the past.
Only the one in hospital will count towards official figures. 1 out of 13. If it is like that for the rest of the country then figures are much much worse than people understand.

We were told at the offset 20,000 are expected.
Someone must have arrived at that figure for a reason. Latest statistics agree with the original forecast. I don't know who drew the stats together. I just hope we won't meet the forecast but I suspect they're even upping those stats as we ride along in the pandemic.
Keep safe everyone.
Sorry for each and every single illness and bereavement. May some miracle vaccine be discovered this very day.

My personal experience seems to confirm the official line. The one that covid is most dangerous to elderly or to those with underlying health conditions.

My brother had it (tested and diagnosed), he's fine now. Got well very quickly. Had the very mild version (truly mild, not pneumonia-mild). He's young (26) and healthy, though. He had pneumonia in his early teens and said that pneumonia was WAY worse than this one for him.

Now my mum has it. This is undiagnosed/not tested, but they live together with my brother and her symptoms match his, so it's pretty much sure. She's fine, also mild. She's not that young (53), but healthy too.

I myself might have it (undiagnosed, but have symptoms). If this is it, it's very mild for me. Slight discomfort and some tiredness, otherwise fine. I'm 32, no health issues.

Don't know anyone who died.

However, it's obviously serious. No one would lockdown the whole country and shut down the whole economy for 'just a fucking flu'.

I think the situation is very very serious and far worse than we have been led to believe thus far

I mean, we've been told it's serious enough that almost every aspect of normal life is cancelled for the foreseeable future and we all have to stay at home.

It's a deadly virus which spreads really fast and for which there's currently no cure. We're in lockdown precisely because it's serious. And we've been told that quite clearly.

Although clearly serious we won’t know the truth until people are tested.

I noticed Matt Hancock said earlier that 16000 have been admitted to hospital and 4000 have died. Who had said that in China, 20 per cent of cases were severe, five per cent critical, and one per cent were fatal.

Of course it's serious.
There is no way to know the extent because not everyone is tested. Some people have little to no symptoms. Those people won't be counted at all.

It's probably not a good idea to create more fear than there already is.
I just do my best to distance, isolate, not touch surfaces, phone, face when I'm out, wash hands thoroughly.

Our mobiles are probably the dirtiest component. We've constantly have our mitts on them and to our face.

Anyway, that is all we can do is follow the guidelines carefully.

I know several people of who have had it. Most have made a full and quick recovery, albeit it with some longer lasting fatigue. I know a few who have been floored ie ten days in bed. The people who have died have all been elderly (this is awful, i am not saying it isn’t; but as you would expect in terms of risk)

So yes it’s not a great situation but it seems as we knew - most people will be ok

The economy won’t be which will cause more death and misery for decades. Why we didn’t act in January I will never know