Sweden, could we do it the swedish way?

[SQuueze]

Maybe they have just got lucky but they aren't in complete lockdown. There is social distancing and other measures in place. But with masks, not coughing on people, a few rules, could we make it work?

Mistyped - I meant not been out of the house

Much interest in Sweden here
(I live in Germany)

Some speculation in Germany that total deaths in Germany during lockdown may actually be lower than the same period in 2019,
due to reduced deaths from RTAs, work, alcohol, flu (!) etc

Anyway, the Leopoldina (the German National Academy of Sciences) is recommending not to extend lockdown after it runs out on Sunday, or at least extend only for a short while
and to let schools etc return soon

Merkel may be cautious, watch Sweden a bit longer and also maybe synchronise with France,
in which case lifting restrictions on 11 May

I'd be surprised if it's any later and might be earlier

Walk just looked on worlodmeter

Says 355 deaths in Ecuador. This is not the number I imagined when you said they were dumping bodies in the street.

fascinated if you can walk or drive to your mum, and she wants you to visit, I would.

Mum and I only don’t because I’d have to use the Tube and can’t risk the fine or criminal record.

LilacTree - that’s why you need to look at what is actually happening, not at statistics on covid 19 being reported - paticularly in countries that are not doing many tests. Whatever the cause of extra people dying in Ecuador, the result is families being left with dead bodies being uncollected in their homes because the mortuaries are full, and bodies being dumped in the street until government workers come to collect them. I personally would like to know what is causing these extra deaths (also in this country, 6,000 more than the norm in the week ending 3 April, where the norm is around 10,000 - so a huge difference). If it’s because of lockdown, that would be good to know. If it’s because of coronavirus, that would also be good to know. Telling us how many people are dying in hospital of covid 19 each day really isn’t telling us much at all. What the hell is everyone else dying of in such increased numbers?

Walk the mystery of “what are Ecuadorians dying of” is probably a whole other thread.

What about the mystery of what people in the UK are dying of, then, LilacTree?! Why 6,000 more in one week than usual?

walk you’re confusing me now.

Confusing you in what way? The ONS has reported that in the week ending 3 April this year, around 16,000 people died in England and Wales. That time last year and in the previous 5 years, the norm was around 10,000 people. So, that’s a lot more excess people dying of something than is being reported in the daily covid 19 statistics.

I don't think the additional deaths in Ecuador are a mystery - we have had their vice president giving a televised apology for their failure to deal with the people dying of Covid-19.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/ecuadorian-city-creates-helpline-for-removal-of-coronavirus-victims

www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/sonnenholzner-disculpas-imagen-ecuador-covid19.html

Sweden have just reported 170 new deaths - which is equivalent to the UK reporting 1,102 deaths.... This confirms that the big dip over Easter was as a result of reporting rather than a genuine fall, and indicates that Sweden perhaps isn’t so exceptional after all.

Apparently that it just catch up - they have never had more than 90 a day ?

I have contacts in Sweden (through work) and was told that their main cases appear to be a) in the cities, and b) in care homes for the elderly.

They seem very confident in the governments’ handling of the situation. They are continuing the strategy that they are on (that people will get the CV) and that a new strategy now is also to protect the elderly / vulnerable.

Because the population is so spread out, and because the culture is that they ‘generally’ listen to the rules/government advice, they feel that they have prevented it spreading.

The normal Easter break would have meant a holiday/weekend in the mountains, skiing, etc, and city dwellers going to their 2nd homes on islands or in the mountains; and the Government put a stop to that, which, in the main, everyone has listened to it.

It’s interesting listening to the difference in cultures, as I’ve had to explain why we’ve furloughed staff and put multiple measures in place in our business where people are working, in line with government guidelines.

The negotiations with unions is a whole other board game to be able to actually implement anything - it isn’t as easy as we have it perhaps in the Uk eg. Furlough has practically taken place overnight with very little consultation. They’ve had to have lots of discussions and talks, with the end result very much in favour of the employees (government money, organisation money and small hit for the employee)

@KatyMac

Yes, some of that number is undoubtably catch-up, but even so, it’s a large number.

The extra deaths - on top of Covid deaths- in UK are believed to be from people having sepsis and strokes etc and not going to hospital quick enough through fear of catching Covid.

The potential issue with Sweden is not whether it has reduced transmission and taken measures (which it has), but whether it’s done enough to prevent a very substantial number of deaths.

All other countries in Europe “locked down” much,
much earlier in the disease’s progress. Even the UK locked down when there were “just” 463 deaths in total, which would be equivalent to about 70 deaths in Sweden. Sweden is now at around 18 times that. Whereas evidence seems to show that lockdowns are stabilising and slowing reducing infections, implying a R0 of less than 1, even then new infections seem difficult to quash.

If Sweden’s number is R0 is greater than 1, it will keep growing, and with the lag in 4 week lag between infection and death, even swift measures now can’t stop a long deterioration. Given that even a strict lock down only stops spread quite slowly, I fear that Sweden’s numbers are far worse than they currently appear, in the same way the UKs numbers are far, far worse now than when we went into lockdown.

The very fact they aren’t furloughing staff implies work is continuing as normal for many in the way it isn’t here. Encouraging older people to stay safe and home working where possible will help, but is it enough to cut the R0 to below 1 (especially as recent research indicates that it’s R0 is as high as 5 without social distancing)? We’ll have a better idea over the coming fortnight, but today’s numbers - even allowing for some catch-up - don’t appear to auger well.

The extra deaths - on top of Covid deaths- in UK are believed to be from people having sepsis and strokes etc and not going to hospital quick enough through fear of catching Covid.

Interesting, and it wouldn’t be surprising. Is there a link to support this?

I have contacts in Sweden (through work) and was told that their main cases appear to be a) in the cities, and b) in care homes for the elderly. They seem very confident in the governments’ handling of the situation.

Reading this again, the complacency here is shocking... Meh, it’s only really in the cities (ie where most people live!) and in care homes (ie places with a concentration of vulnerable and old people) so that’s apparently ok....

If Sweden had reported 170 deaths in a day a 2-3 weeks back, it would have been truly shocking, but as it’s behind the timeline curve of other countries, the significance risks being lost.

Is there a link to support this?

@Derbygerbil - It was someone on Newsnight (I think this Tuesday, so last night) that was suggesting this.

This is the link from Newsnight - twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1250181366379163651

I've just watched the clip and it isn't complete - there was more said on the programme. Sorry.

Maybe this has it all in.

But that is very close to our early/mid Feb in this country that only the old or sick would die - a sort of separating of the wheat from the chaff as we dont really need the old or the sick

It’s not that we don’t need them KatyMac it’s that they can’t always be saved or protected effectively in the way that young and healthy people can. No matter how much money and care is spent on trying. It’s a cold hard fact that many of those who have died (possibly even the majority) would not have survived for long even without Coronavirus.

It’s a cold hard fact that many of those who have died (possibly even the majority) would not have survived for long even without Coronavirus.

The overlap between those who have died of Coronavirus and those who would have died anyway in the near future is interesting. If there is a significant overlap we should see a corresponding fall in deaths later in the year, as those who would have died later in the year died a few weeks or months prematurely from Coronavirus.

This is where died with “underlying conditions” message doesn’t really help. There’s a big difference between someone with end-stage cancer with days to live irrespective of a Coronavirus infection, and someone with a well-managed underlying condition who is living a normal life with a normal life expectancy.