Sweden, could we do it the swedish way?

[SQuueze]

Maybe they have just got lucky but they aren't in complete lockdown. There is social distancing and other measures in place. But with masks, not coughing on people, a few rules, could we make it work?

As much as I’ve criticised the Australian government in the past we’re actually doing really well with 46 deaths for a country of around 25 million. I believe our strategy is to get community transmission numbers really low or zero then test aggressively and trace the contacts of infected people. I’ve received emails at my government job asking for people to work on the contact tracing.

www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8197247/Coronavirus-death-rate-SIX-TIMES-lower-countries-use-BCG-vaccine.html

Seems like there is defo something in it! Luckily I was born in a country that does BCG on day 1....

I had mine when l was 11

Does protection last a lifetime?

Does protection last a lifetime?

I've seen guesses of between 20 and 60 years, so who knows. I had the BCG and also had what I thought was CV, so...

It’s supposed to last 15 years, but can possibly last up to 60.

In other words, as with all vaccines, it works better in some people than others, so if you lived in an area with high rates of TB, you’d be wanting some kind of booster after 15 years!

Mind you, the NHS says there is no evidence the BCG works in people over the age of 35...

So, since you are only ever supposed to be vaccinated once against TB, and this should be in childhood, any protective effect must have very little to do with whether or not you are still protected effectively from TB, given the fact hardly any children get bad symptoms and even fewer die of coronavirus regardless... Unless, of course, the research is implying countries without national BCG programmes will have a much higher death rate in children than countries that do!!!...

@48MashedPotatoBrainz are you in Sweden?

Regarding the BCG, I think it could be to do with the reaction of your immune system when you got the vaccination means you react differently if you get covid19 now, is that right?

MashedPotatoBrainz are you in Sweden

Yes I am. Although I'm currently staying in my house and pretending I'm not.

Chances of this virus being like hpv or hsv and capable of lying dormant and then flaring up again?

Letency is a characteristic of the herpesviridae family (herpes, cold sores, chickenpox, glandular fever are all caused by herpesviruses). Coronaviruses don't become latent in the same way.

It's concerning. 50% of staff in Linköping hospital infected with the virus DH tells me.

I think the numbers today prove 'the Swedish way' is doomed.

The Statistics are showing that there is a Stockholm problem (also Sörmland which is an adjacent, partially commuter belt county). Together they account for just under 25% of the population but have recorded 71% of the deaths. Other major city areas such as Gothenburg, Malmö and Uppsala etc have seen few deaths.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

The Linköping experience could probably be repeated at any hospital anywhere in the world. It involved the 50 staff working at the thoraxic surgical ward where the entire staff were tested to try to get to the bottom of how patients were getting C19 on the wards. It revealed that approx half of the staff had C19 and approx half of those who tested positive did not have symptoms.

That's incredible.

I think the numbers today prove 'the Swedish way' is doomed.

Not according to FHM. They don't go 'oh shit we're getting 100 deaths a day now which is a massive jump from the 50 a day a few days ago'. They go 'a few days ago our average death rate was 40 a day and now it's 45 a day, so everything is stable and going to plan'.

Sweden's population is a about 2.5 times Ireland's population.

We've been in lockdown since about 12th or 13th of March, measures v similar to the UK. Our deaths the last few days have been on average 27 per day, so considering we're doing all we can and sweden is just going about its business, 27x2.5 = 67 so Sweden is getting something right!

Not sure I can understand why that is, but their deaths are low.

Am I doing the maths all wrong?

I'm not very good at maths! I think we won't really know the truth for years. We just have to keep inside and hope for the best.

I think we won't really know the truth for years.

What truth?

There are certainly many things we don't understand about this virus for at least a few years, but it's already pretty clear which strategies allow health services to deal with this and keep mortality rates down.

I mean we wont have the whole truth or all the facts for years. Sorry if I worded that wrongly.

Not sure I can understand why that is, but their deaths are low.

Am I doing the maths all wrong?

Deaths occur one month after infection.

Sweden's numbers shouldn't be any different to other countries YET as Sweden was doing pretty much the same things as its neighbouring countries in the early weeks of March.

In the middle of March, Norway and Denmark took strong measures to curtail the spread and have been successful.The number of deaths occuring each day in these countries has now stabilised.

In Sweden, the number of deaths each day is now rising rapidly and is likely to continue to rise in the coming weeks as few measures were taken in Sweden to prevent the spread of coronavirus in Sweden.

hannah

Are you a bot? The deaths in Sweden have dropped.

The deaths in Sweden have dropped.

The reporting of deaths in Sweden has dropped. This is most likely due to it being Easter weekend. As anybody who has ever lived in Sweden will tell you, nothing gets in the way of time off for holidays. Global pandemic will still be there on Tuesday so no need to change plans for this weekend.

The weekend pattern is very clear in this graph

Yes it is, you are right.