Sweden, could we do it the swedish way?

[SQuueze]

Maybe they have just got lucky but they aren't in complete lockdown. There is social distancing and other measures in place. But with masks, not coughing on people, a few rules, could we make it work?

Surely it just makes sense for any country to follow the WHO advice for dealing with pandemics based on expertise.

Makes no sense politically to take a different approach and the be held accountable.

Personal space is usually too close IMHO.

I’m always puzzled by touch screens at GP and hospital too.

Deaths are a good measure because you can extrapolate backwards from the number of deaths.

UK: 274 Sweden: 23 population per km^2

An incredibly blunt tool for comparison. There are large areas of Sweden which are unpopulated. Nearly 60% of it is forest.

Their pop per m2 doubles when you take forest out of the equation it increases further when you take into account arable and farming. Then you need to look at where the urban conglomerations are. 85% of the population live in urban areas, and in these areas some are over 200/km2

True about personal space. I need lots and found it tricky living in France..

I’ve never lived anywhere else

But in offices, I’m surprised how people will start chatting, standing up, right next to a desk occupied by someone trying to work, even when they can move a few feet away.

50 deaths have been reported in Sweden today.... That would be equivalent to 360 deaths in the UK, so not as bad, but hardly good.

Some people tend to be too prone to look at the here and now with these figures without fully appreciating that infection to death takes 3 to 4 weeks on average. This means that deaths resulting from an infection picked up from, say, Cheltenham or Crufts would only now be beginning to filter through into the figures here. When we (far more belatedly than most other places) “locked down” on 23 April, we had 335 deaths in total compared to the steeply rising 3,605 we have today. A total of 335 deaths is equivalent to 50 deaths in Sweden, the number they recorded today alone!

I fear they are heading towards disaster, blinded by an exceptionalism and complacency born of previous sound and successful governance that doesn’t exist in most places, even relatively successful liberal democracies.

UK: 274 Sweden: 23 population per km^2

It’s worth noting that Spanish Flu hit the very sparsely populated north of Sweden very hard...

Population densities at a country scale is meaningless, people aren't evenly spaced across any country, the population density in any major european city will be very high in any country. Scotland is a similar area as England but has 1/10 the population. But the population density in Edinburgh and Glasgow is very high due to the large number of tenements.

Was just today queueing outside a system bolaget, swedish alcohol shop, which has today put in some measures to stop it getting too busy inside. People were complaining it was ridiculous, and no one was social distancing. I think sweden will get a lot worse especially with a nice easter on the horizons.. but who knows if this experiment will prove correct.

Was just today queueing outside a system bolaget, swedish alcohol shop, which has today put in some measures to stop it getting too busy inside. People were complaining it was ridiculous, and no one was social distancing

Interesting, and helps put pay to the myth that Swedes are somehow virtuous, sensible and reasonable in a way Brits, Italians, French, Chinese, Americans, Spaniards etc are not!

Seems we just need a decisive leader to give us the rules and obey them.

A lot of dithering and poking around the edges going on. Seems like hard decisions are being based upon how others have managed like Sweden without a total lockdown.

We live in dangerous times. But hopefully will come out the other side.

Just seen some videos on Twitter of bars and clubs in Sweden tonight. Packed out, no social distancing whatsoever. People just drinking, laughing and socialising as they would normally

testing isn't consistent between countries, without a consistent test rate; comparisons are not much good. That website that seems to have the most up to date data www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
is saying they will have a test data section up soon.

So Sweden could be pulling off something great or could be failing dismally without testing levels it is non-comparable I think?

As of the end of last week the swedish health agency is reporting they've analysed 36900 tests

I’d be more inclined to know what aspects of the German strategy could perhaps be useful here than what China did/are doing. Simply due to cultural and political differences.

It's difficult to tell with Germany atm. They've done four times the number of tests per million of the population compared to the UK - roughly 10k vs 2.5k. So they may have more people diagnosed with mild CV. But they have more cases per million diagnosed - roughly 1k vs our 500,000.

The really interesting figure for Germany for future study is the v low death rate 15 per million compared to our 53 per million. Again this could be due to more mild cases being tested. But it could also be down to how they treat the cases. Another aspect could be viral load. Given the number of healthy health care workers who have died from CV, being exposed to a greater viral load is clearly a factor. Maybe Germany has been able to keep people from being exposed to a greater number of people with the illness.

Testing healthcare workers, having better protective outfits (which protects patients as well as hcp's, and better isolation of potentially ill patients (we've heard stories of people potentially with the illness in the UK all being kept together in the same small room pre-testing) could all be factors in better/worse outcomes.

Sorry the first para above should be highlighted as it's quoted from a PP.

A family member was tested in Germany for mild symptoms (which met the criteria) and it came back negative. It’s very far off our approach.

Just been in touch with a Swedish sibling who was worried because our other sibling is putting pressure on him to start socialising/entering the house of our 88yo parents. I told him a bit about what is happening in the UK, what I have heard from friends and colleagues who are fighting the illness. They have no idea over there. Proper sticking fingers in ears time.

Think he was relieved to find he wasn't the single loon fussing about nothing. The brother who is putting pressure on him is still going to his indoor skiing sessions, moving between his job and two households, doing anything he did before, and as far as I'm aware his (nearly adult) stepson is moving between his mum and dad.

Does anyone know how accurate the tests are thought to be? Just wondering if some people are getting tiny viral loads that don’t register with the test, and wondering, if you don’t get a fairly big viral load, whether that has an impact on length of immunity, or only length and severity of illness?

Basically, is there a pattern to how viruses, particularly respiratory viruses, normally work in this respect? Chances of this virus being like hpv or hsv and capable of lying dormant and then flaring up again?

Sweden’s number of deaths per million is just below ours

But they have a much smaller population and population density

In Germany numbers are starting to rise quite rapidly

We absolutely could have been better prepared with testing and I don’t think any healthcare provider where numbers are now high are not struggling with PPE it’s very concerning

But as for countries getting it right. China was able to halt the spread by severe lockdowns and the heavy use of their military that might be the best way to deal with this short term but not long term as cases are I think starting to rise again in China

The really interesting figure for Germany for future study is the v low death rate 15 per million compared to our 53 per million.

That’s only the figure at the moment. We’re not all at the same point so you can’t read too much into those figures. Although Italy looks worst at the moment, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it didn’t look like that in a month.

I agree Derbygerbil. We don't know what's happening with Germany atm. It could, as you say, be that they are just at a different place on the curve and their death rate may climb.