Why are cases in Italy still rising when they have been on lockdown for 3 weeks?

[AnxiousOverCovid]

Italy has been on lockdown for 23 days, from the 9th March. The number of new cases are starting to gradually reduce (thank goodness) but they are still rising. Yesterday there were 4053 new cases whilst their highest number of daily cases was 6557 cases on 21st March.

Surely during lockdown the only transmission that should occur for the majority of the cases is transmission within a family and occasionally transmission during rare trips to the supermarket or out for exercise? As well as hospital-acquired cases for both non-covid patients and medical staff.

Does that kind of transmission explain why there are still thousands of new cases each day or am I missing something?

So basically us frontline nhs staff are being lied to regarding transmission?

I have a friend who trained in China as a doctor ( she's from an African country). When the outbreak in Wuhan became severe, she went back to help. She is certainly convinced that droplet transmission is significant in the spread.

She's still working away in Wuhan.

@Dongdingdong

Which other scientists? Can you link to a source?

@Weedsnseeds1 I don’t mean to sound rude but you can’t convince me that your story is more legit than the facts from the WHO. Unless you can show me your “friend” and all her new research.

It's not "research" it's her observations as a doctor, working in Wuhan at the height if the transmission there.
She hardly had time for bloody research!

I am also a scientist, so don't bother telling me that my delicate little brain doesn't understand.

www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fprepare%2Ftransmission.html

www.npr.org/2020/03/28/823292062/who-reviews-available-evidence-on-coronavirus-transmission-through-air?t=1585778267134

I'm not attempting to convince you of one thing or another. You are perfectly capable of making your own mind up

@liberoncolours Just an FYI, South Korea is not in lock down. Schools are closed but people are still going to work unless they can WFH, which isn’t as common as here. Pretty much everyone wears a face mask, keep social distance and wash hands often.

It’s the emphasis on testing and contact tracing that really makes difference there without the need of a lock down.

my delicate little brain doesn't understand nobody said that! Are you ok?

Thank you for the actual links - I’ll be sure to read it & share the information with my lovely doctor colleagues. Us doctors like facts

Rate of hospital admissions in Italy has slowed noticeably.

Yes, I'm fine fuckwit, just pointing out that it's not a "I heard someone, who's brother's cousin's chiropodist said" story.

And as a doctor, I am sure you understand that droplet transmission, doesn't mean its floating around in the air forever.

Did you mean to put “I think” before that statement or are you God

C'mon. This is a discussion forum on MN. If people put 'obviously, this is merely my opinion, for i am neither a qualified whatever, nor an unseen deity, etc. etc.' every time they posted it would be ridiculous.

Unless people say otherwise, I think we can safely assume they are expressing an opinion!

Many people aren't diagnosed until they turn up at hospital very ill, one or two weeks into the illness. People being diagnosed now could have got ill two weeks ago, and been infected a week before that, before the lockdown.

The number of new cases each day is trending downwards though, as a result of the lockdown.

The WHO agree it's transmitted through droplets, it's just not airborne. I don't get the difference but apparently there is one.

This is I think the 4th threatened pandemic since I started working in healthcare. I was heavily involved in the prep for swine flu at my trust. We were ready for exactly this scenario but it didn't happen because it wasn't needed. It boggles my mind that people think, having reacted calmly previously, the whole world has decided to overreact at once for shits and giggles.

If they've got it right, we won't know how bad it could have been.

The CDC is recommending the more stringent airborne precautions:

www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/infection-control/control-recommendations.html

Eskarina droplet transmission is where virus is suspended in microscopic particles of liquid e.g. when someone coughs or sneezes. Airborne is where evaporated droplets can remain suspended in the air for a long time ( sort of "dust").
My previous post referred to droplet transmission.
This virus also appears to be spread by indirect contact i. e. from surfaces.
fuckwit has chosen to jump on my comment about droplet transmission and confuse it with airborne.

Droplet transmission means large infective respiratory "droplets" from someone sneezing or coughing at close quarters. The droplets are heavy so they rapidly fall from the air and only travel as far as they were propelled by the sneeze or cough, then fall under gravity

Airborne transmission means when tiny infective droplets are able to float in the air for a prolonged period and can be moved over greater distances by air currents.

@Weedsnseeds1if the shopkeeper follows all the recommended precautions re regular hand washing, sneezing/coughing into a tissue, etc. shouldn’t that limit them infecting customers?

goingoverground precisely

Some people don't follow the lockdown/ guidelines/ etc...
They still go to the supermarket / pharmacy etc....

lenny in theory yes, but it's easier said than done. The shopkeeper's tired, he yawns with hand over mouth, it doesn't register tgat that's a risk.
He wipes down the keypad on the card machine, but forgets the door handle.
The delivery driver needs the toilet, his usual stops are closed and the shopkeeper takes pity and let's him use his, but did he sanitise the flush when he last used it?
The driver goes to his next stop, the shopkeeper is old so 5th s dtivef takes pity and carries stuff in. He hands the paperwork to the shopkeeper to sign...