Why are cases in Italy still rising when they have been on lockdown for 3 weeks?

[AnxiousOverCovid]

Italy has been on lockdown for 23 days, from the 9th March. The number of new cases are starting to gradually reduce (thank goodness) but they are still rising. Yesterday there were 4053 new cases whilst their highest number of daily cases was 6557 cases on 21st March.

Surely during lockdown the only transmission that should occur for the majority of the cases is transmission within a family and occasionally transmission during rare trips to the supermarket or out for exercise? As well as hospital-acquired cases for both non-covid patients and medical staff.

Does that kind of transmission explain why there are still thousands of new cases each day or am I missing something?

@RuffleCrow The rate of increase is decreasing, but overall there are still new cases being announced everyday so the overall amount of cases is still increasing.

Lockdown doesn't stop people transmitting it - it just slows the transmissions rates. People will be newly infected tomorrow, next week, next month and the months after.

spreading still happens within a household

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/italy-home-quarantine-repeats-mistake-made-in-china-doctors-say

"Italy needs to shift to mass quarantining of coronavirus patients with mild symptoms instead of letting them isolate at home, according to a group of Chinese experts who traveled to the European nation to advise officials there...."

@jhj67 democracies can't do a China.

If someone in a family has it, their spouse could incubate it for a couple of weeks and then fall ill, then their child, etc.

@LittleLittleLittle

democracies can't do a China.

did you read the article? It just says mild cases should be quarantined in a hospital instead of at home, why do you think that wouldn't be possible in a democracy?

@littlelittlelittle 15 or so doctors/hcps from China arrived in London a couple of days ago to help the UK fight the virus. (Not to spread communism...)

@jhj67 you clearly haven't read and seen clips of how people were quarantined in China. Also have you heard how people get MRSA? You really don't want people quarantined in British hospitals.

No, multi-generational living is not common in Italy.
I'll copy and paste the figures I put on each thread that mentions it!
Just over 1% of Italians live in multi-generational households
1.3 million Brits live in multi-generational households.

Italy nationally didn't lockdown until 11/3. The experts said Italy would reach peak infection around 3-10th April and as infection rates have been plateauing since last Friday, that estimate looks to be true. Deaths will obviously rise for a time after peak infection is reached.

The PM announced about half an hour ago that the lockdown restrictions will continue until 13/4 at the current very high level, although everyone expects them to continue for longer than that.

If anyone is interested, the figures region for region are published daily.
Thankfully, although there are cases all over Italy, it's nowhere near as widespread as it would have been had the hotspots not been closed off in February. The south, whilst obviously not unscathed is nothing compared to the north west.

I have seen clips of people quarantined in China - just talking at length about the various stags of the disease and how thye has stayed in touch with people via internet and how they feel and how they are coping.
Nothing unexpected. If you have seen anything shocking can you link?

sorry that was @LittleLittleLittle re quarantine

probably a lot to do with asymptomatic spread and the lockdown not being anywhere near as tight as Chinas, which sadly is what we all need

Adding pic of today's Italian regional info.

Should our hotspots be closed off too? Or is it too late?

@TheCanterburyWhales so interesting! Thanks for sharing

Re @TheCanterburyWhales comments, in France the patterns of growth are interesting - 2 weeks ago numbers were growing everywhere but now there appears to be very significantly higher concentration of cases in 3 hot spots with significantly less growth in other areas (if I am interpreting the diagrams correctly). ICU patients are today being transferred from Paris to Brittany hospitals, for example.

Its airborne and people are still going out. So people going out during the lockdown will still get it.

Is there any evidence of this it being airborne?

Because they have their own homegrown idiots that ignore the lockdown.

My Italian friends shared something last week that I took to be marauding British holiday makers, mainly older men, about 30 of them out drinking together & running amok in the streets, with police trying to round them up. They turned out to be Italian & she said it's happening all the time ☹️

@LittleLittleLittle

do you think if it's done here, it has to be as bad as the worst clips from China?

regarding your point about MSRA, you're missing the main point - the main point is if they stay at home, they will pass it on to other household members. They don't literally have to be put in a hospital, an empty university halls-of-residence would do, whatever, the point is that even though they have only mild symptoms, they will infect the others.

really, i don't see how this is difficult to comprehend?

... the point is that even though they have only mild symptoms, they will infect the others , if they stay at home.

@imissthebeach closing down of hotspots in UK (following lead by other countries in Europe) was done by the no unnecessary travel requirement.

Oh right. Fair enough 👍🏻

The article jhj67 posted says they are taking over hotels in Milan to use as quarantine facilities for people with mild cases of COVID-19. That's very different from what happened in China.

Yes, unfortunately, you're going to get idiots everywhere. Not many are risking it because the fines have been raised to about 4000 euro if you're out without permission. One of my students (aged 18) took the rubbish out on Sunday and stood in the fresh air for ten minutes and was fined.

Wrt hotspots- I think when we look back on all of this, Italy will, along with almost every country confess to having acted too late. The hotspots were small towns, so sealing them off seemed easy, but by then it had reached the ski resorts and Milan.

Where are the hotspots in the UK? Are they small enough to effectively close?