Why are cases in Italy still rising when they have been on lockdown for 3 weeks?

[AnxiousOverCovid]

Italy has been on lockdown for 23 days, from the 9th March. The number of new cases are starting to gradually reduce (thank goodness) but they are still rising. Yesterday there were 4053 new cases whilst their highest number of daily cases was 6557 cases on 21st March.

Surely during lockdown the only transmission that should occur for the majority of the cases is transmission within a family and occasionally transmission during rare trips to the supermarket or out for exercise? As well as hospital-acquired cases for both non-covid patients and medical staff.

Does that kind of transmission explain why there are still thousands of new cases each day or am I missing something?

No unnecessary travel isn't the same as closing off a hotspot though. The towns in Italy were small enough to be literally closed. Police and soldiers on every street stopping all coming and going and keeping pedestrians off the streets too.

That was before we all went into lockdown.

@TheCanterburyWhales Damn that’s confusing. I see what you mean though!

I read East London (Tower Hamlets), somewhere in Wales & Sheffield were hotspots. Those places are probably too large to lockdown!

I see what you mean. In relation to France I meant areas of fast growth and high concentration, eg Paris, Lyon, and it was the travel ban which was intending to stop it spreading to second home areas etc as it had in Italy and Spain, I think.

The virus spreads exponentially so what you want to look at is the log of the number of cases. This graph shows the number of cases in Italy on a log scale and you can see how the lockdown is slowing down transmission

Cases are dropping and, unlike the good ole UK, they test.

Has the incubation period been known to be longer than 14 days then? Obviously that won’t be known in people who don’t display symptoms. WHO website says 1-14 days.

Just want to know as DD has a sore throat and headache but has been WFH (works in London, used tube) and not gone out except for walks outside where she hasn’t come into direct contact with anyone for 16 days.

To those asking aboit london, unless I’m out of date, Tower Hamlets isn’t the worst hotspot by any stretch.

You can google of course, but random point - my area had the highest cases a couple of weeks ago but has now dropped well below even the middle of the London figures.

I don’t know how realistic it is to close off boroughs, nor do I know the size of towns in Italy that were locked down. It would cross to borderline postcodes. Your nearest food shop might be the one in the next borough if you live on the postcode border.

Public transport use is down by 90% which is astonishing.

Two things worry me much more

1. the continued flights into the UK from all over the world, including New York

2. the continued use of wet meat markets.

Oh, the West Midlands are is now second worst after London as a whole.

Oh hang on....are flights still going out of Italy? It looks as if they are but I don’t travel so I don’t know how up to date the info is.

Re London I think Kensington & Chelsea was the first hotspot because of all the skiers coming back from Italy/Austria!

Re rising cases in Italy I also understood it to be thought that it’s because of transmission between families living together, which is why the Chinese advised the quarantine measures should be implemented.

People keep saying incubation is 14 days but I'm sure I've read it is on average 5 days....? 14 is rare?

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

On R4 this morning, early part of Today programme. There was an item saying Torbay was an early hotspot, but that it has closed again, and the level of infection is within expectations, because of self quarantining. Torbay has no serious crisis. But it has an elderly population and is the main shopping centre for a wide catchment.

It is not airborne! It only becomes airborne if the droplets are forced out of the mouth at speed e.g. dental work being done, CPAP machine, during procedures involving the throat etc. It is droplet transmission. I work frontline NHS and this has been our most current guidelines

“ Re London I think Kensington & Chelsea was the first hotspot because of all the skiers coming back from Italy/Austria!”

That’s what I thought. And no, I don’t live anywhere near there!

Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster had high numbers right at the beginning - rapidly overtaken by Southwark.

it's not full on quarantine and isolation. People still go to work, out shopping, running some errands. The new infections are slowing down though, not doubling every few days.

it has an elderly population and is the main shopping centre for a wide catchment

the first part of that sentence is correct - the town centre cannot be described as a shopping centre by any definition though. I suspect they all shop at the Willows where M&S, Sainsburys and some other shops are. I am not sure how many, if any of the others are open as I can't remember what's there. But anyway, avoid the Willows and you'll probably avoid catching it.

London is the big hotspot here, I think about half the cases (and the deaths) are there.

It is not airborne! It only becomes airborne if the droplets are forced out of the mouth at speed e.g. dental work being done, CPAP machine, during procedures involving the throat etc. It is droplet transmission. I work frontline NHS and this has been our most current guidelines

You're wasting your breath Countess, MNers love to peddle this particular myth.

It is not airborne.

Shame we can’t report coronavirus myths on MN

Goingfarawsy

There is no fact in science

Science is the means by which we establish facts.

If you want to step away from the mainstream media, then try reading actual scientific articles in peer-reviewed journals.

Apparently deaths in Italy are substantially under reported because they're too busy or ill equipped to count them.

www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Sleep- no, families in Italy don't live together any more than families in the UK do. Just over 1% only.

It is not airborne.

@fuckwitjohnson According to the WHO. Other scientists disagree.

It seems likely that people are infected, but so mildly ill, or asymptomatic, that they don't realise they have it ( even ignoring people who are incubating prior to being more seriously ill). Say that person owns a shop, they serve their customers every day, they stock the shelves, they accept deliveries and help the driver, they receive post, they thoughtfully deliver to elderly people....

We need a facepalm emoji on Mumsnet 🤦🏻‍♀️