Worried About Coronavirus- thread 35

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

134 new covid-19 deaths in the netherlands.

Meanwhile there’s a festive atmosphere in the park behind my house.

Fuck this government. 563 deaths in a day is criminal. They left it too late.

2352, versus 2158 at same point in Italy?

Sweden has many single person households, which they are expecting to slow the spread.

Dangerous to assume this will make that much difference... There was a school of thought that said we wouldn’t be like Italy as their elderly population was higher and they tended to live in extended families more.

Sweden have recorded a 33% increase in deaths today to 239, which in proportion to the population only a day or so behind the UK.... and they still have their bars and restaurants open so even if they act now any serious suppression activity will only occur at a much later stage than virtually any other country.

Dangerous to assume this will make that much difference... There was a school of thought that said we wouldn’t be like Italy as their elderly population was higher and they tended to live in extended families more

That’s very much true for big parts of London, with families living together, which was the Northwick Park hospital area, and the cases there, and many immigrants and young professionals living in shared accommodation.

Packs of teenagers still roaming round my area. Group of 5 just walked past my window, heads together looking at a phone

Those new numbers are awful. Could well be Cheltenham/Liverpool/Madrid/ Crufts coming through. Basically all those mass gatherings when we had thousands more cases than we knew about (due to lack of testing).

If we’d had more of a handle on this and knew the true numbers then those events would not have gone ahead. Shocking really.

People are seemingly mostly very compliant where I am. We all step aside on pavements etc, and try to avoid each other in shops as much as possible (excepting the odd person in a world of their own).

I took the kids to scoot round the park opposite our house at lunchtime and it was almost-dead. I'd have brought them home if it was busy (and gave them a pep talk about not using the equipment and any moaning to do so would mean instantly going home before we went!).

Basically all those mass gatherings when we had thousands more cases than we knew about (due to lack of testing).

The multitude of much smaller gatherings that occurred over that period will be a main driver... There were probably many 1,000s of groupings of over 100 people over that time.

Derby, yes in most schools and colleges everyday!!

I think the London Underground and Buses will be the biggest spreader rather than the mass gatherings, hence why so many people
In London are affected.

The spread throughout our hospitals in the past months will unfortunately be many of these deaths including medical staff It is really hitting home now as each day I am learning of deaths of friend's family members.

Yes I think tube travel is still a big problem.

My road is very quiet and it's usually super busy, I'd say most people complying round here.

Yes we hear about the odd groups of teens or drunks... But mostly everyone is trying to distance... Staying in..

People arriving into Heathrow and Gatwick mostly transfer, through train and bus through London too

My road is very, very quiet too. Hardly any people and not many cars. Was strange at 9am when it’s usually very busy.

Oh no, the numbers are terrible :(

Do we have the non hospital numbers yet?

I think the London Underground and Buses will be the biggest spreader rather than the mass gatherings, hence why so many people
In London are affected.

It’s so incredibly irresponsible what TFL and the mayor are going with the huge cut in services

With these Italian number deaths it’s interesting we’re not hearing about any strain in the hospitals. Gagged, probably.

It’s so incredibly irresponsible what TFL and the mayor are going with the huge cut in services

TFL had (has) huge staff shortages due to self-isolating if individuals and households. They had no choice but to cut services and close stations. The govt refusal to close non-essential businesses and construction caused overcrowding on the reduced TFL network.

It helps to explain why the government position has shifted in the last day or two from “We are following the science, unlike everywhere else. We have this under control and there’s no need to worry. Everywhere else in the world is overreacting because they aren’t following the science” to “It’s China’s fault that we didn’t act sooner. They didn’t make it clear enough that this was serious and we didn’t have enough information to make decisions”. They will have known this was coming for the last couple of days because they have access to information we don’t about the number of critical patients. They are now going to spin this as the fault of everyone else but them.

*An intensive care consultant in a Welsh Covid-19 hotspot has said her unit at the Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport is full of people aged 20, 30 and 40.

Dr Ami Jones told ITV News:

We have already surged beyond our standard capacity. It’s not just the vulnerable and elderly that are getting poorly - my unit is full of 20-, 30- and 40-year-olds.

Jones works for the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, which has the highest number of confirmed cases in Wales – 681.

She said the hospital is “very prepared” and has “surge plans” in place to cope with an influx of sick patients.

We are looking to exceed six times our normal critical care capacity, but it’s not just a case of giving us ventilators - we need more staff and we need other equipment.

Jones urged the public to stay at home and only leave for essential journeys.

We are prepared to surge if we need to but we hope we don’t. We hope lockdown and social distancing will flatten the curve, but people do need to lock down.

Popping to the shops for a paper is not essential - everybody is at risk.

I’ve got ITU patients on my ward who were previously fit and well so if you think it’s not going to affect you and you can just go out and do what you want then you are wrong. You will end up in ITU if you are not careful.*

This, reported via the guardian live blog is really concerning.

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/apr/01/uk-coronavirus-live-nhs-testing-covid-19-updates-latest

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/31/nhs-staff-gagged-over-coronavirus-protective-equipment-shortages
Pressure is being applied to NHS staff not to speak to the press.

Italians don't live in extended families any more than Brits do.
Just over 1% of Italians in multi-generational households
1.3 million people in the UK in multi-generational households.
Two different ways of counting: % of whole versus actual numbers, but like for like works out almost the same.

Three weeks ago it was all over the news (also in the UK) that Italian hospitals were not coping, because then the virus was almost totally concentrated in Lombardia. Patients were moved to other regions, and latterly to Germany. Other hospitals have been redeployed- my nearest 3 general hospitals have been changed so one takes all Covid patients for the area, one does the testing and one general medicine.