Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

As of 9am 2 April, a total of 163,194 people have been tested of which 33,718 tested positive. As of 5pm on 1 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 2,921 have sadly died.

Because some people still have to, like key workers etc? Because they caught it before lockdown but are only being tested now? I don't know, but I can tell you that in Spain, the lockdown is strict and is being adhered to. Footfall in Madrid and Barcelona has decreased by 87% and in Seville by 94% sorry, my link is only in Spanish.

That was U.K. figures today

Just to add to hopefulhalf’s post the five day incubation is an average (in observations of a brand new disease) and there are reported cases of up to twenty days incubations.

So responding to @hopefulhalf's post - when will Spain peak?

Thats just for the index case then there's:
d) Household transmission
e) Healthcare transmission
f) Lockdown is imperfect

Yes, for instance DH works in a call centre and his company are money grabbing bastards. They made them all go in for about a week after lockdown as they used the loophole of telecommunications, but they were not applying any saftey measures: no masks, gloves, sitting close together etc. He's now working from home, but could have passed it to me since then and I could have passed it to, say the person in the supermarket or his elderly MIl when I visit her with food/medicines, etc.

Men appear to be disproportionately affected. I have seen this discussed on other threads.
These are pie charts from little Luxembourg showing male/female cases by age group.

A medical friend said that there was a new study (in mice) suggesting that female mice had worse outcomes from CV if their ovaries are removed, which would indicate a potential protective effect from oestrogen. Obviously early research though.

I believe Spain is 4 or so days behind Italy, who are expected to peak this week, so this weekend or early next week.

So responding to @hopefulhalf's post - when will Spain peak? soon hopefully, but our lockdown (Spain) was a week after Italy and I don't think they have peaked yet. The UK will then be about a week or more after us in Spain I think.

Are the UK figures out for the last 24 hours?

Are all figures still hospital deaths or community too?

UK figures are hospital only I believe.

Hospital deaths only - + 569 for UK

Because there is no such thing as total lockdown. In Spain, as in Italy, people go to buy food.
As we all know, one infected person, who may be asymptomatic can have a domino effect.
Incubation can be up to 14 days, most people will have symptoms before then, but some won't.
So, a person with mild symptoms or no symptoms could be going to the supermarket every day for 14 days hypothetically.

birds- we were like you a week ago, with that "this is never going to end" feeling. But despite the fact that the death toll is rising (which is expected after the infection rate plateaus) the experts here and the government are definitely cautiously optimistic now when they do the conferences daily. There is less "how can we stop this" and more "we are managing to stop this and now we mustn't let our guard down now at this stage"

Hang on in there .

Whereabouts are you based @TheCanterburyWhales?

2,921 confirmed on gov.uk and Worldometer now. Anyone else noticed the shitty tabloids just make up their own number an hour or so before official?

Anyone else noticed the shitty tabloids just make up their own number an hour or so before official?

I can't say I have noticed that if I'm honest!

Six more deaths than yesterday then. 569 is terrible but I think we still have a way to climb if Spain and Italy's figures are anything to go by sadly.

A medical friend said that there was a new study (in mice) suggesting that female mice had worse outcomes from CV if their ovaries are removed, which would indicate a potential protective effect from oestrogen. Obviously early research though.

It's referred to in this piece:

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-death-men-women

A medical friend said that there was a new study (in mice) suggesting that female mice had worse outcomes from CV if their ovaries are removed, which would indicate a potential protective effect from oestrogen. Obviously early research though.

That’s interesting. I’m wondering if it’s going to turn out (many years from now) to be some kind of gene fault inherited via the X chromosome. A previously undiscovered form of something like XLP, one that didn’t cause any discernible problems until this new virus learned how to exploit it.
I’m an artist, not a doctor, so bear that in mind

I'm in Italy, Utterly.

"female mice had worse outcomes from CV if their ovaries are removed, which would indicate a potential protective effect from oestrogen."

But the % of male deaths exceeds women for all age groups, including after menopause

The difference is a bit lower for the over 80s, but women tend to considerable outnumber men after that

DuLANG The much higher % of male deaths in all age groups - and for other viruses etc too - has made several scientists consider that the extra X chromosone women have could be protective

However, a lot more reseach is needed and into understanding the mechanism if so,
for this to become more than a very tentative hypothesis

Statistically, men may actually suffer more from several illnesses - so maybe it's not - entirely - "manflu"

I mean past accustions of manflu

Numbers a bit confusing at the moment:
England: 561
Scotland: 50
Wales: 19
Northern Ireland: 6

That totals 636
Reports still saying 569 for the UK. I'll wait a while for clarity before updating.

I've not caught up with thread and don't pretend to understand much ( struggle to even move around on a spreadsheet and have only just noticed the notes section )but I'm going to flag this up from who is suggesting something important re test numbers ie that 40% are retests

@murtaman on Twitter
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

01/04 -RE: TEST NUMBERS VS PEOPLE TESTED. It seems that the number of people tested is potentially about 60% of the number of tests carried out
On March 30th, PHE UK tweeted out "Latest figure for number of tests conducted is 8,278, on 4908 individuals in England (accurate as of 9am 29th March)."
15
From this, it seems:

• the number of people tested is potentially about 60% of the number of tests carried out. (40% of tests currently are retests). Retesting is required for a number of reasons: rechecking status of infected patients, rechecking medical staff/at-risk people; retesting of potentially inaccurate results.

(Plus, this is just a single instance and there may have been a non-typical need for large batches of tests to be redone. Hopefully PHE/somebody will keep posting these figures.)

• given that the daily figure on 31/03 was 8240 this is likely confirmation of the 72-hour delay we'd expected

Sorry this has probably been done over and over but was thinking this over this morning and just wondered what your views were?
On a number of threads people that state Italy has been on lockdown since feb and so their numbers should have started decreasing a long time ago. My understanding was that only 11 municipalities were locked down.
The whole country was not locked down to the same degree as us until 11th March with further restrictions on the movement of people on the 21st March.
So if they are now at their peak as has been suggested a few times recently then that is 3 weeks from the initial lockdown, which is what was expected?
I'm just thinking out loud here, sorry!