Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The analyst who produces these graphs for the FT notes - as several people on this thread have - that the UK's death toll is now higher than Italy's at the same stage, as can be seen on the cumulative graph here.

Definalty need non covid hospitals.

Both dd and dh have to go to the hospital soon, dd needs plate for over bite. Dh needs tube for sallow thing.

Should we cancel? It's such a huge fucking risk isn't it!! Neither is really crucial..

Not falsifying deaths, but undercounting them. Several people in local care homes dying with suspected COVID but because they never got to hospital, they were never tested and aren't counted in the official figures

Sky news said its 20 %"Italy, us 27%.

So next week we will have or be up to 10 thousand deaths

I know of local cases which have been recorded as corona virus when they weren’t so am bit on fence at mo

Big choc

Never ever should any of the other western modellers ever relied on Chinese stats! Never ever!!

BigChoc I see. What do you think about their medical papers then published in the Lancet? I thought it was believed that they were a good source of data re: number of fatalities once people are admitted, etc.

istherelife No paper from China would likely to be submitted without the approval of the government there.

They have some superb and brave doctors

• and there was yet another recent whistleblower who has been silenced after she spoke out about ongoing cases there

I'd tend to believe doctors from China writing about data they had collected themselves in their own hospitals
but not that they necessarily had the full picture,
certainly not of 1.4 billion people spread over a vast geographical area

I'm not sure the regime have falsified data, but there is now reasonable doubt.
So I have serious concerns about any models validated & tuned by it

Serious analysts - not the Fail doomsters - are now estimating 1,000 deaths a day is imminent
e.g.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/01/ventilators-may-be-taken-from-stable-coronavirus-patients-for-healthier-ones-bma-says

Stable coronavirus patients could be taken off ventilators in favour of those more likely to survive,
it emerged on Wednesday, as another sharp rise in deaths

left the UK braced for the outbreak to reach up to 1,000 deaths a day by the end of the week.

In a stark new document issued by the British Medical Association,
doctors set out guidelines to ration care if the NHS becomes overwhelmed with new cases as the outbreak moves towards its peak.

@BigChocFrenzy

No serious commentator has yet suggested that the UK - or France, Spain etc - are falsifying their deaths

what do you make of this? (I'm not claiming it's correct but the reasoning does look simple and I do believe it for now?)

www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

the article goes into fuller detail, but the gist of it is:

" We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic."

jhj67 I've read several earlier statements by mayors in the Lombardy region saying similarly

It's not deliberate falsification:

these people, mostly elderly, are dying at home or in care homes
Hence, as in UK - at least until recently - not counted in any official figures

This is always likely to happen more often when the health services are overwhelmed and cannot send ambulances to bring in people who would normally be treated as urgent cases in hospital

We've seen a similar situation on the MN "burning lungs" threads,
where MNers with shocking symptoms have been told the ambulances can't take them because the hospital wouldn't let them in

Those MNers are not 85+ and / or with serious comorbities, so thankfully all so far are pulling through, however distressed they are at the time

However, if the NHS does get overwhelmed, then the Uk would likely also see large numbers dying at home

• this horrifying prospect is part of what panicked the govt into changing strategy and choosing lockdown

So, CV is likely being under-counted atm and may also be under-estimated in the official stats for the year, which will distort later analyses including cost / benefit

The Chinese healthcare system had a similar situation when it was overwhelmed,
which would also not be falsifying data in not counting home deaths

The false data would be
e.g. denying these deaths at home happened,
deliberately not recording some CV deaths as such in hospitals,
not recording outbreaks in other regions - maybe remote regions
and - what a recent whistleblowing doctor claimed - denying deaths happening now

The Netherlands think they have managed to reduce R0 to below 1
(grey areas mark statistical upper & lower bounds)

@BigChocFrenzy

thanks for your views. For me, I'm not interested in whether its deliberate falsification, just the numbers of deaths, and interestingly, the report's authors think some areas there may have already reached the point of more or less everyone having caught the disease, i.e. like it or not, they've had the short, sharp shock treatment and it will be completely over soon - that would be a staggering example for the world to look at if it's indeed the case.

@Nquartz

On March 19th, on the first thread, you asked me for my projection for April 1st. I said I was uncomfortable making predictions, but would make a comparison with Italy to suggest where we might be in 11 days. On March 19th we were at 144 deaths.
I suggested that by April 1st we might expect something similar to around where Italy was at March 16th.
I suggested around 2158 deaths.

We are at 2352 today.

The Netherlands think they have managed to reduce R0 to below 1

The UK’s R0 is now 0.62, according to research by the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine.

You need to see this.
A Fox news presenter stunned into silence by a scientist. She is being told stuff I don't think people wanted to hear. Her response at the end is priceless

twitter.com/jfreewright/status/1245568412928978946

I do hope they are right utterly. The next few days will be hard. Thank you all for this thread.

He spoke well. Yep he won’t be back!

@chomalungma
That pause when he had finished......yup, he won't be back.

We aren't so good
Here's Peston trying to explain science to Doctor

Western Governments have plenty of experience of “statistics” from Chine.

Using that experience Johnson (and Trump) should/could have taken that into account and responded accordingly.

The fact they did not is at best incompetence and at worse criminal.

@chomalungma but Preston is wrong judging by what the dr says towards the end ?

but Preston is wrong judging by what the dr says towards the end

Yes - I know. Because journalists shouldn't try to explain science to scientists

In terms of trying to see where the peak (I'm assuming for the UK the peak in the number of deaths is a better guide than the peak in the number of new infections) might be surely it doesn't matter so much if the absolute numbers of deaths is under-estimated, so long as it's under-estimated consistently.

The absolute numbers do matter in terms of predicting/assessing the impact on the NHS.