Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

@hillary4 do NHS staff have a different view? Am genuinely interested. I haven’t heard any saying that they are not coping yet and I know a few working on the front line. Again I am genuinely interested. We all care.

@Hillary4 we are having a genuine discussion here. If you have evidence the NHS has crashed we are only asking for it because we are genuinely interested and shock horror care.

and sorry I don’t get your projection piece. There was never a plan not to lockdown. The point we are discussing is not whether it was the right thing to do or not but whether it was done at the right time.

Locking down too soon could be counter productive

I fully agree. However, I don't think you have a measure of what is too soon. I hope you understand what exponential growth means, with doubling every 2-3 days. You may have 2 patients one day in a local hospital and have full wards, sending the less serious home in a week.

The time for lockdown is not when the NHS is already not coping at all. It's some time before that. Because it takes at least 2 weeks of unchecked exponential growth to see an effect of the lockdown.

This is how well the NHS is coping.

Coronavirus: 20,000 retired NHS staff have returned to fight Covid-19, Johnson says
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-latest-retired-nhs-workers-staff-return-boris-johnson-a9433001.html

Wondering what people think the NHS coping v not coping looks like, tbh. All the cancelled appointments and screening programmes, lack of PPE, etc, will result in deaths in themselves. At what point does a system count as not coping? Is that when people give up, down tools and run away, and complete chaos ensues?

Exactly

Personally, I’m not just scared of getting covid 19 - I am terrified of needing medical attention for anything at the moment.

Boo
I sincerely hope we don't overwhelm our treasured NHS and staff

Answering your points -

The NHS staff, both junior and senior are repeating daily they are near breaking, and fearful of any increase in patients - why else is the Nightingale hospital being converted to Covid in London?

Tim Cook who runs an ICU said we have 4000 ICU beds in the UK, Germany has four times.
Those beds are 90% full, so we have to discharge to take new patients, not easy with the nature of the occupants

We have 22,141 confirmed cases in UK now, 1,408 have died, those of those hospitalised 135 have recovered, the beds will not be released prematurely.

The numbers are eye watering, of the total population it is estimated that between 30% and 60% will get Covid, of those one in seven will need to be hospitalised and of those one in five will need ICU and of those one in fifty will sadly die.

So no, the NHS isn't broken yet, but l wouldn't be complacent, that is what we are told the poor Italians did

Wow, do you really not know anybody who works in the NHS, if not then see the news reports from exhausted staff, hear about patients discharged early or operations cancelled to make way for covid patients?

That is how the NHS is coping at the moment, but if not for managing the new cases by lockdown yes they would certainly have been overwhelmed by now, but make no mistake, they are on the brink

In my family and friends l have nurses, one GP and an Ortho surgeon, all seconded into covid - either they weren't busy before or their work wasn't that needed.

There will be a huge price to pay on the other side of this with conditions built up by lack of treatment, many life shortening and many with long term consequences.

On whether it was too late, l think it was ten days too late, along with Germany style testing and cluster identification and treatment. The proof is in Germany's numbers

This has been made political by the new mantra, get Brexit done replaced by stay in protect the NSH save lives repeated by every gov rep interviewed on TV, while not answering any questions.

Wonder if that was when BJ gave it to DC while coming up with that gem.....

At what point does a system count as not coping?

I would say: at the point they have to turn away sick people/not give them the right care because they don't have the personnel or resources.

I think it was too late and should have happened at least 10 days earlier...

We won’t know until we have all the numbers, including the cost of lockdown, like I said there is a balance between the 2.

Don't forget the cost of COVID alone, without lockdown.
It's not healthy for the economy either.

I didn’t mean cost to the economy but cost of lives, Suicide, domestic violence, starvation (low in the UK).
Germany numbers are going up so you can’t say they have got it right yet.

Oh and the German finance minister committed Suicide recently re costs of coronavirus on the economy

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-suicide-germany-thomas-schaefer-hesse-finance-cdu-a9432621.html?amp

Wow OP.

Haven't read the whole thread - just OP post.

If you think the 'plan' (would that be the 'herd immunity' plan?) was so great - why not visit someone who you know is contagious. If you're one of the unlucky ones, you can take up a bed and equipment and risk infecting others. If you're really unlucky, you may die. Or not get a bed and be left to die without treatment. Either way, if you are one of those who don't make it - you do this alone. Without family to comfort you.

Or you may have mild symptoms and not even notice.

That was the plan. It was a ridiculous plan. The measures were put in place too late, not too early. And yes, this is a long one. We need to control the waves of infection so the our (underfunded, understaffed, underappreciated) NHS can cope with the needs of those who are ill.

I don't get how people don't get this

I don't think they can be compared with a full blown uncontrolled pandemic.

Yes theere will be mathematical equations that will be able to tell what a full blown pandemic would have been with out lockdown also including different times of lockdown but not until they have all the data which won’t be until 2022.

@MadMadaMim I think you are confusing herd immunity with flattening the curve. They are different things and can exist together. Herd immunity is 65% of the population getting it. Flattening the curve is about slowing that process down which is enabled by lockdown.

And herd immunity is not a plan! It is the inevitable outcome of a virus spreading unless a vaccine is in place.

Oh and I don’t know how you don’t get this!!!! Don’t be so condescending.

@Bool the subtlety (not) and obvious in your face sarcasm has clearly whoosjed over your head.

I'm not confusing anything. I understand (but thanks for the explaining - maybe it will help some if those refusing/unable to grasp the situation and why we'rebbeing asked to do what we'ressupposed to be doing)

And yes - I was completely condescending. In some situations, nothing else will do

@Bool well done 😊 so many people think they are right and self righteous on here, nobody knows how this is going to turn out yet.

@gin96 yep we are all learning and discussing together. There is no need to be rude.