Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

Lockdowns are not pointless. They slow this thing down but they don’t stop it spreading completely.

Why be superior Chip? Re kids etc

The UK death toll from coronavirus is likely to be far larger than that shown by official figures, experts have said.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

"Until now, daily figures – which reveal 1,415 UK deaths so far – have only counted those in hospital, and show a growing time lag approaching three weeks in some cases.

On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

Officials are braced for an increase in deaths, but expect a far sharper rise in the coming weeks because even Tuesday's figures have a time lag of 11 days from the point a death is officially registered."

@Chipmonkeypoopoo yes I agree with what you are saying. That is what is the general consensus here! Except that it won’t be for a year or so. Will be over a lot sooner than that.

@Chipmonkeypoopoo and yes there is no need to act so superior.

And when I last looked the UK was also trying to slow it down! Everyone is trying to flatten the curve. Sorry I don’t get your point.

How could it possibly be 100,000 if you’re right and herd immunity kicks in at 60% of the population. Even at 1% death rate surely 60,000 would be the maximum? I don’t think that many will die because I think Italy have taken steps to stop the virus spreading to that extent in the population. I think if they had just carried on as normal three weeks ago then 60,000 dead would have been a distinct possibility.

I remember posting a piece of text from someone in Spain a couple of weeks ago. She said CV was everywhere, her friends had it, her family. Which doesn’t tally with the percentage for the number of deaths.

I guess we’ll know pretty soon. Germany will come back with under 2% or not.

@marshabradyo this is also going to be an issue...how many people would have died anyway.

‘But different countries are also reporting cases and deaths in different ways: in Italy, Covid-19 is listed as the cause of death even if a patient was already ill and died from a combination of illnesses.

“Only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus,” said the scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health last week.’

Speaking at a parliamentary hearing last week, Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, said it was not yet clear how many “excess deaths” caused by coronavirus there would be in the UK. However, he said the proportion of Covid-19 victims who would have died anyway could be “as many as half or two-thirds”.

Anecdotally the number of people who have thought they’d had it very mildly, (or have mistakenly thought they’d had it if course) does feel higher than 2.7%

Well, if those ill enough to be tested only 1/3 are currently coming up positive. I would expect that a lower proportion of the "I have a cough =I think I have it" people would test positive. So I would imagine that for every 3 untested people who say they have it, at least 2 are wrong. And the ones who are wrong could realistically be a higher proportion (as mild symptoms more closely match all sorts of common ailments)

I'm not being superior regarding the kids. I teach high schoolers. I get asked all the time "what's the point of this". I think something like this is a really good example of all those seemingly useless skills we learned in school being put into action. Not being superior at all. We all learned them - here we are using them. How is that superior?

I think how long it takes will vary from country to country. But I can't see things being totally normal for a long while because so many countries are at different stages right now. So if things lifted in one place they would still, presumably (?) have restrictions in place to prevent imported cases etc. Like most people, just wondering where it ends really.

Oh I see Chips yes I retract

@Bool I never said the UK isn't trying to flatten the curve. Sorry - I was sort of addressing the original point about bringing in restrictions too quickly. Just saying some countries were trying to flatten the curve even earlier. My understanding from reading news etc is some people are angry or confused by the UK switch in tactics. Apologies if that's not the case. I was just offering examples of countries who started pretty draconian measures much earlier and aren't yet rioting etc. I should have been clearer in my explanation. I apologise.

Well, if those ill enough to be tested only 1/3 are currently coming up positive. that does make me consider it. I really don’t know.

You have to also consider the numbers dying though lockdown, each country has it’s own problems, i’m not saying lockdown shouldn’t happen but it’s a balance, looking at the numbers dying from the virus alone is not enough to give a clear picture.

@Chipmonkeypoopoo sorry yes misunderstood. Which countries do you think put measures in earlier and are doing better though? Just interested.

The reason I ask is because my DH is in the Netherlands and their hospitals are full. From everything we are reading there is still capacity in the NHS and the new hospital is built. So for now we are still under capacity and I pray it stays that way. So for now it seems we locked down just at the right time.

Where do you start....
Not an easy issue to deal with, hindsight is wonderful but -

If we closed down two weeks earlier, tested more and isolated the clusters we would protected our NHS and saved lives

Johnson and his adviser Cummings have managed the public seeing the damage to the NHS that would have been exposed had thousands died at the doors of the hospitals their party underfunded for so long

The initial response, from January when it was known, was decided by the PM and his unelected puppet master Dominic Cummings

Herd immunity was their strategy, no forward planning on PPE, food supply and distribution, testing and all the drivers that would have provided.

Mar 12 COBRA meeting medical experts said if you carry on with this HI 250,000 will die

Then the step change by ebb and flow to "we will do exactly what the medical experts tell us" - except - testing, provide PPE...….

Two points from that, we have no idea of how many have Covid, (they only test hospitalised) or where the clusters are to enable us to deal with it

The other, Cummings and Johnson got their wish for herd immunity - they both got it!!!

If you want to see how this should have been dealt with, research Germany.

Dimwit Schapps said today they aren't better than us, they have more cases! That's because we test 10,000 per week, they test 500,000

Shining lights in this are the
NHS workers (remember this in their pay reviews politicians)
Public volunteers and
The Companies who have created ventilators in record time, (Mercedes Benz AMG have one to be used in the wards releasing ICU beds - why hasn't that been done before?????)

Spare a thought for the police, 800 of them have died in Italy through Covid, they work with limited PPE and no guidance from government

Stay safe every one, we will get through this but lose some dear friends and relatives along the way.

@Hillary4 do you think we are going to crash the NHS now? That would have been avoided if we had locked down 2 weeks earlier? I ask because it hasn’t crashed yet but you seem to know it is going to

@Bool

That is the million dollar question, isn't it? The Government say it will be fine, they have done what needed to be done and we can cope. I want to believe them, and have no evidence that they are wrong, so again, we will have to wait and see....

We do have to remember the delicate balance in all this. My mum and dad have been isolated now for 2 weeks. They have 2 cases in their local hospital. Yes it will increase. Of course it will. But there really is a delicate balance to be had in all this. At the moment the NHS is coping even in London. We all pray it stays that way and yes there has been a monumental effort from people. But this is a delicate balance. Locking down too soon could be counter productive. People getting fed up and breaking it just when it is really needed. It is easier to say do it sooner but we must take other factors into account.

I think they did it at the right time. Looking at earlier lock downs in other countries.

@Bool
You may feel we haven't crashed the NHS yet, but NHS staff may have a different view than your nationwide 20/20 vision

No crystal ball, but prior to lockdown we were on the same trajectory as Italy, would 101,000 confirmed and 11,600 dead have crashed the NHS?

Just a walk in the park BooHoo