Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

Liberon why do they think their numbers are low? I’ve always been interested in that.

@liberoncolours. I disagree. Every person entering South Korea needs to self isolate for 14 days. Then they have to give their personal details and are forced to enter their health symptoms for 14 days into a central database and are monitored by the government. That is frankly scary. And no I don’t think that the majority of people would say yes to that

Makeitgoaway - you sound confused. The court of public opinion was not demanding lockdown - some people wanted it, some didn’t. The WHO wanted lockdown. The majority of experts wanted lockdown.

I agree. It makes no sense to say the government bowed to public opinion - there definitely wasn't a consensus among the public about lockdown! Even just two weeks ago, many people were still saying "this is no big deal, it's just flu, the media are hyping it up, we'll all have forgotten about it by May, etc." It seems far likelier to me that the government's introduction of restrictions were influenced by the WHO and other experts.

8 billion people in the world an increase of 5.5 billion people in the last 70 years.
If 1% of the population dies as a result of corona that’s 80million people.
What do you think the earth would do if it had a choice?
Or a alien race who were tasked with achieving the best outcome for humanity?
I don’t know the right answers (there is no right answer), but this is an interesting lense to look through .......

Firstly South Korea are not at the end. Let’s see what happens there. Secondly in order to make it work have you seen the draconian measures they are taking. It is complete against a free society.

Nobody is, but it's already doing better than the UK.

No country will be able to claim free society if they want to control this virus.
Unfortunately many people don't care for one reason or another.

Germany isn't doing too bad either, but it's too early to tell.

As someone posted earlier and myself elsewhere, it's about compromise. What we can't do is nothing.

@MH1111 - pop your name and three of your closest relationships on the aliens list then if you want.

The environmental benefits are obvious, to talk about people’s suffering and death like it’s a silver lining is crude and ill-timed.

@lewji let’s see with Germany. Currently the median age for the virus there is in the 40s whereas in Italy and uk is the 60s. Will even out.

@bool I may rue saying this at some point in the future, but I do struggle to see your point of view here. I come from a long line of mad hippies and grand supporters of personal freedoms, but in the context of the virus plus the fact that we really don't have much privacy nowadays to speak of - a whole other thread - I would be thankful of those measures if it suppressed the virus.

@MarshaBradyo I will try to find the German link

This is the modelling that IC did which triggered the current lockdown. How many people will be under that green line (lockdown) this winter? Looks pretty similar to the number under the black line (herd immunity) to me.

The tighter the lockdown, the higher the winter surge, so Singapore et al CANNOT be said to be doing better. Better now yes, but overall.... 🤷‍♀️

@liberoncolours and that is fine if you want to live in a police state. All I am saying is that do not assume the majority of us do.

A free society working against a severe threat to life operates under different terms. Ask anyone living in Northern Ireland during the troubles, when police checkpoints and giving the reason for your journey were part of daily life. It was understood that this was in place to keep people safe-the other threat was greater. The goal was the most liberty possible in the circumstances. That's how a free society operates, with protection of life and our way of life being the ultimate aim. Not pointless freedom that ends up in the deaths of the most vulnerable. Here, the threat is sobering and it is patently clear that Boris has never had a political trajectory headed for 1984. He's all about the economics of it. Let's not pretend we're being chained to our doorposts. All measures are being taken reluctantly to preserve what we care about. The scientists had to argue pretty hard to get anyone to care enough to even do it. There's no agenda to turn us into a Stalinist outpost, anymore than there was in the 30s when your best friend had scarlet fever and for some unknown reason that meant you couldn't see any other friends for three weeks. It's called quarantine, not fascism.

Although I'm concerned that countries with different ideological frameworks will see this as an opportunity. Not happening here.

let’s see with Germany. Currently the median age for the virus there is in the 40s whereas in Italy and uk is the 60s.

Do you mean for cases?
That will be because they're testing as much as possible. Unlike the UK or Italy.
The younger will be self isolating (or not) without being tested.

@titchy
The aim is to delay that surge until there's a vaccine, or relaxing measures as health systems get more up to speed.

The ship for that green line has sailed in most countries. Even with school and university closures.

@lweji yes for cases. They say that as it hits the older demographic the death rates will rise in line with the rest of Europe.

@bool ok, so to be clear, no, I don't want to live under a police state. complying with special measures to control a virus isn't living in a police state.

*in not under

Please pay attention to the test coverage. It's very different in the UK and in Germany.

The aim is to delay that surge until there's a vaccine, or relaxing measures as health systems get more up to speed.

I realise that. Risky though - even with massively expedited drug trialling there's no guarantee a vaccine will be ready before the winter surge starts.

In my opinion it was just in time. There are some other countries that did this way too early, like my home country, Poland.

@liberoncolours and all I am saying is that it your personal opinion. And that is fine. But don’t assume that will be the opinion of the majority.

@Bool can you point me in the direction of this definitive evidence for a 0.1% fatality rate, please? I haven't seen anything along those lines.

@catscatscatseverywhere agree. And also Ireland.

@nellodee yes it is how our science and medical officer are estimating the number who have it. They are taking the number of deaths and adding 3 zeros. That equals a 0.1% death rate.

Bool- is that a joke?