Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

By the way the Dutch prime minister stood up and said the exact same thing. And people in The Netherlands nodded and said yep. That makes sense. Anyway no need to debate it anymore because we sit back and see nature at its worst.

Otherwise, no, not gonna happen, just as it didn't for measles, mumps or chicken pox.

It does happen. That's why they are childhood diseases. They hit the unexposed population (i.e. children). Most adults don't have them because they either had them or got exposed and developed immunity.
Vaccines are to prevent children getting them and stopping community transmission. These viruses are highly contagious as well, and are able to pass along children, even when most of the rest of the population is already immune.

@MarshaBradyo yes they checked him over. A fit healthy 52 year old. Was terrifying. Luckily he had terrible symptoms - headache, bad fever, cough and wiped out - but fingers crossed no big breathing issues yet. He is not out of the woods by any means so we are still on tenterhooks.

If we had waited longer we would be getting statistics like Italy

I dont think anyone enjoys the lockdown, just some people accept the necessity of it.

I personally hate it, have chronic major depression disorder, generalised anxiety disorder, autism, adhd, honestly it's all been one nightmare from beginning to end. Its impacted me being able to go to routine appointments and stopped my therapy, unable to go to the gym or visit family and friends, and has caused my already bad mental health to become one continuous anxiety fest.
But I can live with that, as I know the measures are needed. If I'm honest I'm more anxious about nothing being done and it being handled badly by the government and not enough done to prevent further spreading, by how badly organised the UK is, by being terrified my best friend who had immunodysfunction and is in their twenties with young kids may potentially be denied life saving care due to overwhelmed health service then I am by the fact that I'm stuck housebound (and being housebound has always escaperated my depression).

So I dont think anyone is enjoying lockdown and most of us would love to visit family, or be able to go out shopping without being nervous, and just be able to mooch around outside again. But I think we rather keep the vulnerable young and old and those unlucky to experience the virus the hardest alive then we would ignore it all and flounce around and ignore the serious consequences of our actions just because its unpleasant.

@walkaround To be fair, coronavirus is not a new type of virus coronavirus is an umbrella term for all colds and flus. COVID 19 is a completely new strain, which is thought to have been transmitted from a wild animal to a human probably from a bat maybe from a pangolin in a Wuhan wet market at the end of last year.

^It does happen. That's why they are childhood diseases. They hit the unexposed population (i.e. children). Most adults don't have them because they either had them or got exposed and developed immunity.
Vaccines are to prevent children getting them and stopping community transmission. These viruses are highly contagious as well, and are able to pass along children, even when most of the rest of the population is already immune.^

That's what I'm trying to describe (clearly very badly). If we don't develop a vaccine, I see no reason to assume it will just go away completely after a year or so. It will circulate as chickenpox does.

@Potholeparadise. Measles and the like are far more contagious than COVID-19. You need 95% group immunity for those. For COVID-19 you need 65% to stop the spread.

Isn’t another problem with herd immunity by mass infection that it gives the virus more opportunity to mutate?

The problem is not mutation, but selection.

The more a virus is transmitted, the less selection there is. Mutations occur randomly. Some, that make the virus less able to be passed along, tend to disappear from the population. Mutations that enable the virus to be transmitted more frequently, will become established in the population.

Now, the problem is what makes the virus more transmissable.
This one is able to be transmitted even when the person doesn't show any symptoms, so the virus being passed around is the version that is mild enough not to cause much trouble.

If we went into lockdown and hospitals didn't use protective measures, it would be the viruses in sicker people that would be transmitted. Any variants with even a tiny bit of advantage in transmission and making people a little bit sick would become prevalent. They would also be able to recombine with each other and generate variants that were highly infectious and highly lethal.

I suppose what you mean is that the more people infected, the higher the probability that mutations accumulate. When you also get more people infected, it's possible that some will be infected with different strains, that are able to recombine.
But, unlike the flu virus, coronavirus isn't very prone to recombination. This particular variant seems to be the result of recombination, but it's a rare event, or we'd be seeing corovavirus pandemics regularly.

The key problem with going for herd immunity is the sheer number of people who will get infectected, and thus the number of people seriously ill and dying, because health services simply cannot cope.
It's not possible to isolate the vulnerable completely, and with huge numbers of infected people, even the non-vulnerable are at risk.

And yes we absolutely do need a vaccine. Nobody is debating that. Issue is the length of time that is going to take. Korea have decided they are going to suppress it until then. That means that they will force people into 14 days quarantine when they fly into the country and monitor everyone daily. Big brother if you like. Will never happen in Europe.

@potholeparadise I think that with some viruses they burned themselves out/slowed themselves down/viral load reduced over time. A "successful" virus is considered to be one that doesn't kill its host.

South Korea that is

The study that revised the figures down to less than 7,000 predicted that, at peak we would have about 250 deaths per day. Considering there were 260 yesterday, over 200 today and the medical advisor at this afternoon’s press conference warned that we are still 3 weeks away from the peak in terms of deaths, I think that study appears to have been based on a flawed model.

For every death, it is assumed that 80 - 100 people will have caught it from that host beforehand. So the extent of the "iceberg under the sea" is feared - but still not known. That is the reason for suppression being recommended at the moment, to stop the exponential growth and to see where we are.

Another reason I favour lockdown is to do with the fact that the disease sounds horrific in later stages, and the humane thing to do is keep numbers down.

I am hoping that the UK and France learned from Italy in the end and they were more prepared medically - more, not enough, but more - and also that the reason why there are more recoveries being seen in Italy is that the viral load reduced over time... is what I am hoping... but who knows.

It just astonishes me how many people just still don’t get it. They appear to be able to read and write yet to them it’s all about “oh let’s just get the disease and get it out of the way”. The consequences are so much more profound than that

The thing is, nobody really knows how things are going to pan out or what the best approach to the whole situation is. Even the real experts (the actual epidemiologists, virologists, statisticians, other scientists and doctors, etc.) can't agree on that. So what what astonishes me is that laypeople on the internet (read: armchair experts) think they know with such certainty that they can come on here berating and belittling anyone who doesn't agree with them.

For every death, it is assumed that 80 - 100 people will have caught it from that host beforehand.

It's not that bad. :)

For every death, it's assumed that there are 80-100 people infected who don't die.

@sabineschmetterling. I agree. Spain and Italy have already surpassed that and are at 800 per day. We will end up around 40,000 deaths same as Italy. Meaning with a 0.1% death rate - which the experts say they are pretty sure of now - will mean 40m have had it. In a population of 60m that is around 66% of us. Then it won’t be able to spread anymore.

The thing is, nobody really knows how things are going to pan out or what the best approach to the whole situation is.

All the experts agree that delaying measures is the wrong way. There is evidence from Italy and Spain.
You either enter lockdown or similar, or you test like mad and isolate those infected and contacts.
The UK failed the test effort soon after the outbreak started in the UK.

Some of us are not lay people.

@lweji there is no evidence that test like mad is working either. China have just suspended all flights in and South Korea are telling everyone entering the country to self isolate and then tracking them in a big brother manner. Unsustainable or unethical.

In Wuhan over 65 year olds are not allowed to use public transport, everyone is wearing a mask and getting their temperatures checked. They are living in fear.

there is no evidence that test like mad is working either.

South Korea is on a downward slope. And only had 152 deaths.With 3 deaths per million.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

For reference, the UK is at 15 deaths per million, with 1228 deaths and rising.

@lweji yes but two things. Firstly South Korea are not at the end. Let’s see what happens there. Secondly in order to make it work have you seen the draconian measures they are taking. It is complete against a free society.

The thing is, nobody really knows how things are going to pan out or what the best approach to the whole situation is I think most leading scientists are supporting lockdown, predicting exponential growth without lockdown in the short term now? But there are a lot of "don't knows" too, the leading scientists are saying that too.

Germany has interesting things to say about testing, about why their numbers are low.

Some of us are not lay people

I'm sure a tiny minority have some expertise in the area. But I would hope that those people wouldn't "think they know with such certainty" how best to approach the pandemic that they would be on mumsnet "berating and belittling anyone who doesn't agree with them", which is what I was complaining about.

..draconian measures they are taking. It is complete against a free society I think that most people are in favour of personal freedoms, yet can can also recognise why strict measures are being taken in the short term.