Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

@jasjas1973 That is scaremongering. This is not the apocalypse.

Sorry, posted in wrong place.

Is it alloutoffucks? We're not very good at it then, as we've only ever "erradicated" one human virus and that certainly didn't happen in the space of a few months.

I think schools in England were massively underprepared, it seems they went from 'staying open as normal' to 'closing after tomorrow' instantly, and the 'online learning' set up is not good, half the sites don't work, we got a small folder of phonics stuff to last apparently 3 months or more. Its not that much of an issue for thse with internet, I know it seems odd to most now, but many still cnanot afford internet..and honestly, am waiting for the internet to go down due to veruse..thats when we will see proper riots I think...internet is the only thing keeping people sort of satisfied..

Also, eradicating this virus is just...not realistically possible. You cannot fight nature in that way and its slightly arrgant to think you can really. We can slow it sure, release it slowly (or attempt to) to shore up herd immunity in a controlled way, but we cannot eradicate it..

A month ago those saying covoid 19 was going to have a major impact on the UK were told we were scaremongering.
Now we are being told that lock down is unnecessary and it is better if everyone just gets it.

I have been reading what is coming out of China, WHO, Italy and what various scientists are saying. I knew when we were being ridiculed on MN that this is a big deal. I know that herd immunity really means letting lots of people die and seeing who is alive at the end. I also know that covoid 19 has already spread far too widely in the UK and that deaths are going to continue to climb.
I can also see that individuals are going to get blamed for deaths climbing, rather than the governments terrible response to all of this.

It's all about buying us time. For a vaccine, for more ventilators, for herd immunity, to swell the ranks of front-line staff with volunteers and people coming out of retirement, to increase testing capacity. This is not about stopping people getting it. Just about buying time to put coping mechanisms in place.

It was sensible to introduce lock-down when they did - if not a bit too late IMHO. As other posters have said, it will now continue to rise, for the next 3 weeks at least, until the effects of social distancing are at all noticeable.

That what makes me think it was all forced earlier than expected Batshite. We wend from closing and teaching on line, to being open for loads of keyworkers and vulnerable children (which would have meant no to capacity to teach those at home) to only open for those in desperate need. I still don't think it's clear what schools are supposed to be delivering .

Also eradicating it, when thinking along this line..its maybe possible in a way for islands to do that. However, all it taskes is one person to fly/sail/swim/whatever there with it, and it all starts all over again. Unless we are stopping all travel outside your country forever, just...nope.

That what makes me think it was all forced earlier than expected Batshite. We wend from closing and teaching on line, to being open for loads of keyworkers and vulnerable children (which would have meant no to capacity to teach those at home) to only open for those in desperate need. I still don't think it's clear what schools are supposed to be delivering

Yeah, it was all rather sudden and possibly sped up by social pressure. I have no sympathy for Tories usually, but they really were in a no win situation I think.

I'm sure Scotland and Wales forced the UK government's hand on this. Frankly it should have been earlier and we need stricter lock down now because too many people are still ignoring it. Or thinking they can get around it. Or that they are a special case.

Of course you can eradicate a virus. Why do you think we don't get bubonic plague sweeping the country, or whooping cough?

There still are cases of bubonic plague happening, but they are quickly identified, isolated and treated. But you can only do that when you have relatively few cases. It probably is too late in the UK now.

Which means that covoid 19 will be a seasonal illness killing some people every year.

@BatShite We only had to try and eradicate it until we have a vaccine. It would have saved lots of lives and been better for the economy. But it would also have taken political courage that Boris simply does not have.

The response has not necessarily smacked of a well planned, months in the making strategy but we are where we are now. I would be surprised if experts are driven by public opinion - who knows maybe it will turn out with hindsight that there was a better strategy but that's where hopefully people review and learn from what's gone before.

BEST ANALIGY THEY GAVE WAS LOCKDOWN LIKE TURNING OFF A TAP OFF TO STOP THE SPREAD GET ON TOP OFF IT THEN SLOWLY TURN IT BACK ON INFECTION RATES RISE THEN BACK OFF TO GET ON TOP OFF AND KEEP REPEATING THE CYCLE

IF LOCKDOWN IS THE CORRECT RESPONSE, THEN WHY ON EARTH WOULD YOU RELAX MEASURES ONLY TO ALLOW MORE INFECTIONS, THEN MORE LOCKDOWN... FUCKING CRAZY IDEA.

so we lock down forever that is not a solution

@alloutoffucks

...and you base that on what exactly?

CV19 has bought about a halt to almost ALL global trade, will last for many months if not years and you think that will bring about just a zero growth rate?

Morgan Stanley economists on Monday said they now expect a 30.1 percent annualized decline in gross domestic product in the second quarter, the worst quarterly performance in 74 years. The firm’s estimates assume the virus peaks in April and May before growth starts to recover. But if the peak comes later and economic disruption continues in the second half of the year, they wrote, U.S. growth for even the entire year will be down to levels last seen in the early 1930s

We are embarking on a policy experiment never done before, no one knows where it lead, i m being realistic and don't believe lockdown is the answer, especially as its been done far far too late.

S.Korea shows what can be done.

Did anyone watch the BBC4 Pandemic. The thing that really struck me was how basic the models are that they are using. It really seemed like a social science in its infancy. And that is what the UK government's strategy is being determined on and why they are ignoring WHO.

Hear ME out OP when I say we are probably too late in enforcing the restrictions. We all need to get used to lockdown because it’s here for the next few months AT LEAST

@jasjas1973 That is scaremongering. This is not the apocalypse.

Agree - it is total scaremongering. Just stop it FFS.

Lockdown date was planned for the Monday after the schools were closed. I was informed on the Wednesday. I was a little doubtful but the source was genuine and was correct.
I suspect that it had a lot to do with the weather forecast. After 2 months of rain and misery the forecast was for a long spell of good much warmer weather. This would have lead to massive increase in social contact and have been catastrophic for this model.
Please remember that the modelling is based of lots of different variables. Weather, temperature, bank holidays, season will just be a few.

@jasjas1973 I did not say what growth rate or zero growth rate. I said that you are scare mongering. The world has not ended. Yes of course in the next few months or GDP will be awful, a lot of firms are doing very little. That would happen without lock down as lots of staff would be off ill.
But the economy will recover. It has before from much worse. In a few years time we will be okay again financially, but we will have had a lot of people die who did not need to.

I saw it too, Alloutoffucks. It really was very basic. I wonder if some of their modelling was screwed up because schools don't allow mobile phones in schools. Did they actually take that into account? I'm not convinced. It certainly didn't model the way people behave when they think there is a genuine pandemic going about.

@Dongdingdong Morgan Stanley are reputable source of information, and they aren't alone either.

Shutting down the whole world economy is going to have massive repercussions, not my fault you can't think this through for yourself.

Erm. Eradicating a virus kind of means being rid of it. Else you can get random outbreaks again in the future..even with vaccinations against certain strains. I stand by my opinion that actually eradicating a virus is near, if not impossible.

Plus, arent we still allowing some flights in and out anyway? Say we did manage to stop it completely and sit waiting til a vaccine appeared..again, one person, asymptomatic would be all it took to start the hell over again.

I actually do feel quite sorry for Boris here. He has to juggle between stopping people dyig of covid19..and destroying the economy. Its easy to say lives should be prioritised, however, a shitty economy brings with it risks of many dying also tbh. I do not envy him..and whatever he does will be wrong.

Long term, the economy needs some kind of a reset or we are all fucked by the end of the century due to climate change. No-one wants to hear it, but it doesn't stop it being true.