Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

Sunnie yes and other countries may lock down longer with greater effect on economy

@MarshaBradyo WHO recommend closing borders except in a few contexts because most of the world have land borders where people can easily slip across. They say it is better to test and contact trace those entering, than ban it completely and encourage people to enter without you knowing.

The UK is an island. We have a different situation. I am not saying we should have cancelled all flights, but holidays should have been stopped.

"Isn't herd immunity still the plan though, we just want the herd to get it a bit slower? Otherwise how do we ever come out of this?"

I'm hoping we can slow it down enough that we can treat people, then I'm hoping for drugs to treat it then for a vaccine. So, the later I get it, the better.

However, what the Government have to balance is far more unpalatable.
They have to balance health and the economy.
There has to be a country to open up again after lockdown.

it's not pleasant but it's true.

@alloutoffucks
I'm sure some of that is going on too.

But it won't be the rich who are rioting in the streets if there is no money left. If deeper cuts are made to the NHS, benefits and social care.

Those rich friends can afford private testing and healthcare if needed. They don't have to leave the house to go to work because they can't put food on the table otherwise.

I'm sure Boris wants to be popular, but we've left the realm f popular decisions, all decisions are now poisoned in one way or another.

The government has to tread a fine line between the health and economic experts. While giving the impression they are purely focussed on health.

I'm glad I'm not prime minister right now.

Oh I dunno, I do get a bit surprised at people getting really angry at the timing though, as if it were obvious what should have been done and when. It can't be easy getting all this right.

Someone upthread was sneary about Boris wanting to protect the economy. But that is important. Poverty does kill people too.

There is a lot to balance.

WHO do not recommend closing borders it should say

We're going to see absolute armageddon in the US.
Poor health and poor health care. I don't want to witness that panning out.

We need to stay in to stay alive. Please everyone - take notice.

It’s not the upper tier who will struggle most if the economy tanks.

It is the rise in homelessness and unemployment at the other end.

The idea that we can build up herd immunity whilst remaining within the capacity of the health service is total bollocks.

Just back of a beer mat calculations:

ICU capacity - 4000 beds. Let's say we can make this 40,000.
Average ICU stay is 3 weeks. Let's say each bed can treat 20 people per year.
That means we can treat 800,000 people in a year.
5% of the infected population will need ICU care.
Let's go with 60% needed to get herd immunity.
So that's 66,440,000 x 0.60 x 0.05 = 1,993,200 people who will need ICU care.

In short - even if we ramped up ICU care to ten times what we had at the beginning of the year, it would still take over 2 years for us to get infected at a rate the health service could cope with. By which point we should have had a vaccine for over a year.

All interesting yes different if you are an island. But now we see it happening anyway. I’m interested in islands who have done it differently, and stopped travel early (or imposed quarantine).

Midgebabe

It’s about trying to make the best ‘worst’ decision. Many of the issues you describe are happening now as a result of the current strategy.
Both options have cost.
I fear the current strategy when looked though the lense of history will have a far higher cost to humanity

@ITasteSpring In a recession overall deaths actually go down. That may seem counterintuitive, but it is true. People drink less alcohol, do less dangerous sports, drive less. These are all things that tend to kill younger people in our population.

Sunni1992 - measured, sensible posts - thank you.

I'm hoping we can slow it down enough that we can treat people, then I'm hoping for drugs to treat it then for a vaccine. So, the later I get it, the better

Look unless you are at risk, you won't be getting a vaccine even if one is found and that's years away, even if its possible.... no one wants to have experimental unsafe treatment.

We need mass testing, almost another 1000 deaths in Spain today, no sign of slowing down nor in Italy.

@MarshaBradyo I am low paid and if it was not for furlough would be currently unemployed. I fear covoid 19 far more.

Furlough won't last forever though & I worry about feeding my dc

They left it too late as in my area all routine mental health care has been stopped to be redirected towards primary care. Which means the nhs is already not coping and people who are talking about the cost of lockdown on mental health what about the fact that as we left it too late there is now no support during such a anxious time for those already diagnosed with poor mental health.

alloutoffucks we are not heading for a recession but a global depression, which will mean poverty and mass unemployment, slashing of aid budgets and possible conflict.

All fair enough I just don’t agree with the posts re ‘Boris and his rich friends’. The wealthy can ride it out, perhaps even do well in some cases (not relevant to me to even think this through) but a tanking economy really will make things tougher for the other end.

Btw I’m not saying that personally CV19 isn’t very bad and lock downs aren’t necessary atm.

I’m interested in islands who have done it differently, and stopped travel early (or imposed quarantine).

Me too as clearly that has a good method of stopping the spread. I remember reading articles though in February about people avoiding Chinatown & how that was prejudice. I don't think there would have been the appetite to ban travel or enforce quarantine.

Too early!!?? More like too late!!

Other countries are attempting to stop covoid 19 and eradicate it. This is what WHO recommend. And it is what we do with other viruses.

Interview and advice from an NYC ICU doctor.

It's actually rather reassuring, definitely worth a watch.

vimeo.com/399733860

The air quality must have improved greatly, which can be no bad thing for children - especially asthma sufferers.